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Special Research Reports
  
The Alberta Power and Natural Gas market continue to make the headlines as former is seeing its supply stack change with the retirement of coal plants and increased wind capacity. The latter is tied to what is happening with the summer maintenance restrictions as well as the production growth within the province. » read more
  
Over the years, the Rockies region has been a focal point in the West. With the landscape changing across several adjoining regions, the Rockies is once going to be in the spotlight. In this report, we detail the short, mid and long term fundamental changes impacting the overall production supply in the Rockies. » read more
Featured Articles
Friday Mar 17, 2017   
Well folks … it looks like we have two NCAA tournament newsletters in a row. Yesterday’s was written by Midwest Jeff. Today’s written by Northeast Tim. You can probably imagine how pre-occupied our office is this week, between filling out brackets, tracking games, and talking trash. I come from New York State, Upstate New York. New York used to be a state that enjoyed a proud basketball tradition. Some of the greatest college basketball players of all time hail from New York – Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Pearl Washington, Chris Mullen, Julius Erving ... » read more
Thursday Mar 16, 2017   
With the NCAA basketball tournament getting ready to start all I can think about is the Wisconsin Badgers making a run or the Minnesota Golden Gophers rising to the occasion as it is their first appearance with Richard Pitino as their head coach (son of Louisville's head coach Rick Pitino).  These are my loyalties along with the sleeper pick of the University of North Dakota as my father has told me so much about this team as he follows every team that is from his hometown state.  Each and every team has the same goals of reaching the Final Four and actually ... » read more
Wednesday Mar 15, 2017   
Looking at the nuclear outage schedule heading into this spring one area in particular stands out to us as ISONE is expecting 3 if their 4 units to come down sometime during April.  Seabrook (1,159 MWs) is expected to come offline on April 1st followed by Millstone 2 (882 MWs) and Pilgrim (685 MWs) on the 9th.  If we weight the capacity by the number of days offline April is expected to average 2,256 MWa worth of nuclear refueling outages on a daily basis.   Figure 1 | ISONE Nuclear Outage Schedule   NY is also expected to see some outages this ... » read more
Tuesday Mar 14, 2017   
It has been a long road to recovery for the natural gas production industry. A warm winter last year led to a swelled storage complex pushing natural gas prices down below shut in economics for many areas of the country. The result was a tightening of balance sheets for many producers. Production volumes fell with the capital expenditures. After some industry consolidation and a robust price recovery, we are starting to see a more positive view for the producer community. Prices have largely recovered and the prospect of additional market opportunities from ... » read more
Monday Mar 13, 2017   
As we get into the middle of March, the winter strip is coming to an end when it comes to the cash trading of the days, but Mother Nature is not through with winter quite yet as a cold ridge has set up over the Midwest and eastern portion of the United States.  This has left the grid quite a bit tighter as the rescom demand has shifted up from 25-27 BCF/d to 45-47 BCF/d. Ultimately, this has pushed the daily storage withdrawals back up to 25 BCF/d.  Figure 1 | Net Daily Storage As you can see in the graph above, after spending several weeks trending to ... » read more
Friday Mar 10, 2017   
  There is no lack of innovation in California. It is one of the state’s core competencies. Whether technology, environmental regulations, renewable energy, movies, or entertainment the Golden State leads the way. An innovation in the electricity market that has been steadily gaining steam over the last few years is the development of Community Choice Aggregators or CCA’s. CCA’s are governmental entities formed by cities and counties to procure electricity for their residents, businesses, and municipal facilities. Think about a competitive ... » read more
Thursday Mar 9, 2017   
Our daily newsletter has covered what has been happening at Orville Dam since the spillway started to give way as the lake behind the dam reached emergency spillway levels in the middle of February. This event call for over 200,000 people living in the surrounding neighborhoods to be evacuated for safety reason.  A couple of days later, the residents were able to return to their homes while the riverbed below the spillway/dam was filled with large pieces of concrete as well as boulders/soot from the hillside being washed into it.  Such debris caused the ... » read more
Wednesday Mar 8, 2017   
With the renewable push over the years, the Lower 48 has seen quite a bit of wind and solar hit the grid.  The pioneer to all of this was the State of California where they implemented a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) that paved the way for wind generation to be built both in the Pacific Northwest and in-state during the early years.  Recently, the renewable of choice has come in the form of solar facilities that have recently peaked over 9 GW during the middle of the day.  Looking at the midday average we are seeing over 8.1 GW hit the grid during ... » read more
Tuesday Mar 7, 2017   
There were some big changes to the weekend weather models that caused us to alter our natural gas demand forecast. Starting on the Saturday model runs, a subtropical ridge built over the Desert Southwest allowing cold air from Canada to drop into the Midwest. By day 8 of the forecast it is now expected to be over the Mid Atlantic and New England. Chicago is expected to see a drop in its daytime highs from the mid 60's down to the low 30's. This change in the flow pattern took a prevailing forecast that had been trending above normal for most of the winter and pushed ... » read more
Monday Mar 6, 2017   
Prior to this year, all the Chicago Cubs fans could do is talk about the Steve Bartman foul ball incident in 2003 that robbed them of their first National League Championship Series (NCLS) in 58 years and a chance to win the World Series that had escaped them since 1908. Back then the Cubs were the first team to play in three consecutive World Series (winning in 1907/1908 and losing to the crosstown rivals Chicago White Sox in 1906 - 4 games to 2 games). Figure 1 | The Incident - NCLS Chicago Cubs Game Over the past 13 years, we have seen the Boston Red Sox ... » read more
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