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Special Research Reports
West Power will be interesting as we move into the back half of May and look forward to June and all of Q3. This article takes an in-depth look at how the Renewable penetration has impacted curtailments, how the constraints at SoCal Citygate are impacting the market and the volatility that is in store once we get into the summer months. » read more
EnergyGPS teamed up with REsurety to analyze the effectiveness of P99 fixed quantity wind hedges. This free report models the hedge settlements for 38 individual wind generators in the ERCOT market, providing detailed economic and hedge efficacy metrics. » read more
The article runs through the key regions across all of North America and details the natural gas demand drivers and their impact to the daily balance. » read more
The hydro season is in its final three months of run-off season, this report details the system operations that are in play now that the weather is getting warmer and more snow is melting in the middle to upper elevation levels. » read more
We detail how the grid has gone from a high wind scenario and curtailments to lower output which results into higher power burns across the Lower 48. » read more
The featured article details the days leading up to the last weekend of April and how the forecasts were pointing to a high probability of Renewable curtailments. » read more
The monthly report takes a look at how the colder weather in April has impacted the supply/demand landscape across North America and what is in store for May 2018. » read more
The article breaks down the renewable landscape for the Pacific Northwest, CAISO, ERCOT and SPP as we head into the balance of Q2. » read more
The report breaks down the market fundamentals for both the power and natural gas markets around Southern California and their respective impacts to the SoCal Citygate cash price indices as we move through the rest of spring, summer and upcoming fall. » read more
The Alberta Power and Natural Gas market continue to make the headlines as former is seeing its supply stack change with the retirement of coal plants and increased wind capacity. The latter is tied to what is happening with the summer maintenance restrictions as well as the production growth within the province. » read more
Over the years, the Rockies region has been a focal point in the West. With the landscape changing across several adjoining regions, the Rockies is once going to be in the spotlight. In this report, we detail the short, mid and long term fundamental changes impacting the overall production supply in the Rockies. » read more
Featured Articles
Friday Aug 7, 2015   
This week all eyes turned to Texas as a substantial heatwave descended on the region.  In a previous newsletter we looked at the forecasts and called for this years peak ERCOT demand to occur on August 5th.  With RT demand hitting 68,459 MWs for HE 17, not only did demand set a new 2015 peak, but broke the all-time record set back in 2011. Figure 1| ERCOT Load and temperatures - Daily The record lasted precisely 24hrs as Aug 6th HE 17 load set a new peak load of 68,921 MW, eclipsing the short lived record by over 400 MWs. » read more
Thursday Aug 6, 2015   
With the Desert Southwest following in Texas's footsteps (HOT!!!) I thought it would be good to take a look at how it impacted the Pacific Northwest's supply picture on Tuesday.  Let's first take a look at how hot it really is in Arizona and Nevada. Phoenix has been staring at highs in the 110-112 degree range while Las Vegas is in the 108-109 degree range.  Such heat has prompted the middle of the day load to increase to the highest levels we have seen this summer.  Adding a little fuel to the fire, some units that have been producing MWs are ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 5, 2015   
Demand is falling across the United States this week with total power demand foretasted to fall around 50 GWs between Monday and Friday.  Texas, however, did not get the memo with temperatures in Dallas expected to average 99 degrees for the 10th with highs around 105 degrees.                                                                             ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 4, 2015   
Remember the days when weather got warm and the middle of the day peak demand increased to where the super peak prices became a premium and the region actually priced itself to keep MW's at home.  Sure sounds like the Pacific Northwest and the Midc trading hub in early July, but it is not.  It is this region called the Desert Southwest, which has a trading hub called Palo Verde.  Yesterday, it traded at a premium to Southern California, which does not happen too often these days as the region seems to be well supplied and with the economic down ... » read more
Monday Aug 3, 2015   
With the NFL starting training camp last week, all the players had to be relieved that the temperatures across the country started to cool.  I am sure leading up to the first practice, the players, coaches and training staff were monitoring the weather forecasts hoping for some sort of reversal.  As of last week, Friday, they started to get it as the EnergyGPS peak demand sample went from 537 GW to 514.6 GW.  By the weekend (which was the first day of pads for some), the peak demand tumbled to 470 GW. Figure 1 | North American Peak Demand - EnergyGPS ... » read more
Friday Jul 31, 2015   
Over the past 4 years, California has had several key elements change when it comes to their supply/demand portfolio.  First, the load has yet to recover from the economic downturn in the summer of 2008.  Second, both Songs units were officially retired in June 2013 which meant that over 2,000 MW of base load energy was lost within the LA Basin.  Prior to that, the units were offline for safety reason therefore the CAISO had to implement emergency operations in the summer months as they revamped their transmission grid to allow for more renewables such ... » read more
Thursday Jul 30, 2015   
Northern California is experiencing another wave of heat as Sacramento's highs are in the triple digits and San Francisco is staring at highs in low/mid 90's just outside the bay.  This has translated into a higher load profile across PGAE's demand region. Figure 1 | PGAE's Hourly Load Profile As you can see in Figure 1, the load ramped up early in the week and peaked out yesterday with the heavy load coming in just over 17,000 MWa and a peak demand of 19,783 MW. Southern California's load shifted up as well but not nearly as much as PGAE's.  For today, the ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 29, 2015   
The West Coast is preparing for another heat wave as the latest forecast is showing the high temperature in Sacramento remaining above 100 degrees for the rest of the week. The previous newsletter addressed the possible impacts of load breaking 45 GWs on Friday. Before we dive to far into the analysis, it should be noted that the most recent CAISO forecast shifted load down slightly the rest of the week with Thursday now set to become this year's peak demand as it is showing 44.9 GWs. Figure 1| CAISO Load Forecast - Peak Hour     In order to ... » read more
Tuesday Jul 28, 2015   
The latest weather runs are out and load in Cali is set to make a serious run this week.  CAISO load forecasts are now showing peak hour at 45 GW for Friday, as high temperatures in Sacramento hit 108 tomorrow and Thursday.  Down in Southern California, Burbank is in the low 90's while further inland triple digits are also in the forecast.  As you can see in Figure 1, both PGAE and SCE's load profile shift up quite a bit over the next three days. Figure 1| CAISO Load Forecast - Peak Hour The last time load broke the 45 gig mark was the first ... » read more
Monday Jul 27, 2015   
Portland received some much need rainfall this weekend, cooling the pavement and replenishing the died lawns.  While the weather put a downer on weekend activities it was a pleasant reminder of the differences between the PNW and California. As we are all aware, California is in the midst of a multi year drought and the conditions are not expected to improve through August.  With the drought like conditions present over the past 3-4 years, the available hydro storage within the state is suffering as a result.  Looking at historical ... » read more
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