The first month of Q2 starts out with a day full of pranks as it is known as April Fool’s Day to many.  This year, it seemed like that day was endless when it came to policy action items coming out of Washington DC as the President of the United States started slinging around tariff talk and Executive Order signed document like it was Halloween candy.  The impact of such was like markets that have massive wind penetration where the hourly auction clears display volatility that was once only on display a couple days of the year.  The stock market took note; the energy sector was trying to decipher the meaning of many while the country north of the border was digging in their heals as the upstream power was being masked by the storyline being pitched in the press or interviews.

Figure 1 | April Fool’s Day Throughout the Month

If you reflect on what transpired throughout the month, the general conclusion was that without certainty there is no path forward and since we have no certainty, the only thing we can do is lay low until we get some. From an energy speculation standpoint, there was some length (spec-longs) in the market given the fundamentals through March were supportive as the colder end to winter combined with LNG and power load growth demand was enough to prop up the prompt month.