Leading up to the summer months (July and August), the natural gas landscape sent a strong signal that there is plenty of molecules to go around as the forward curve walked out of winter with plenty in storage and a production level that warranted a price signal for entities to reduce their volume and comment on such in their quarterly earning calls.  On the power front, several regions/ISOs were watching the renewable transition kicking into high gear with the solar volumes steadily increasing all the while the battery technology was established inside of California and Texas was preparing for the hot summer days when their power demand had an impact of the 2023 price action.  The combination of the two commodities and their respective market fundamentals has kept the front of the Nymex curve in a tight range starting in July and capping off another month this past August.

Figure 1 | Nymex Prompt Month Settles and DD 15-Day Forecast - Daily

The punchline on the natural gas side of things is that the September (August Prompt Month) contract went off the board at $1.90, which happens to be the second month in a row with such a handle.  This is all after the contract bounced back to trade in the $2.10 to $2.23 range throughout the heart of summer.