The California market continues to see strong solar capacity come into play from its industrial-scaled facilities and behind the meter buckets where the negative midday period pricing stretched into the month of February 2025 whereas last year the negative pricing held off until the month of March. 

Table 1 | CAISO Real-Time Pre-Dispatch Hourly Settles – 2023 through Present

The factors tied to this movement get exacerbated once you move into the second quarter of the year as wind output is strong, demand is low, and the Golden State is on its third consecutive good hydro Water Year.  The growth of battery capacity has not been enough to reduce the renewable curtailment volume percentage through March 2024 but so far April has proven to take a bit of a turn from a curtailment percentage standpoint while the spread between NP15 and SP15 continues to be less than last year during the midday period.