At EGPS, we spend a lot of time looking at ERCOT historical data. Usually only as far back as 2017 or so, maybe 2014, and very rarely earlier—with how fast the grid has been changing over the past decade, going back farther than a few years can start to have diminishing usefulness for making conjectures about the future. But in the entire span of historical data we look at, at least one trend has been pretty reliable: on average, due to its relatively low demand and high renewable penetration, West Hub has the lowest prices. That has changed:

Figure 1 | Annual Average Hub Prices, 2017 – 2024 YTD