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| Wednesday Nov 27, 2024 | |
| Winter weather descended on Alberta last week. Overnight lows dropped to the single digits and then below 0 degrees. Negative temperatures are expected to continue through this week. The figure below features our 15-day heating degree day matrix with the date of the forecast on the y-axis and the date the forecast was posted on the x-axis. The blue indicating higher HDDs has been percolating for quite some time and gradually turned more extreme (moving left to right) as the forecast dates approached. In this blog, we’ll check in on how Alberta fared with the early-season chill. Figure 1 | Alberta 15-Day Heating Degree Day Matrix Although we’ve recently written about the increase in pool price hitting the $1000/MWh cap (see ‘Looking Ahead in Alberta’), AESO has ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 26, 2024 | |
| As the Lower 48 moves from autumn to winter, certain regions have experienced more dramatic seasonal changes while others have experienced a slow transition. The Pacific Northwest has seen cooler, wetter weather, while other areas, such as the South Central and Northeast, have had warmer-than-usual conditions this November. In particular, Texas has been notably warmer in October and November, impacting the state’s power grid in significant ways. Mother Nature delivered warmer temperatures across the ERCOT region as displayed in Figure 1, with the top pane showing daily cooling degree days (CDDs) from back in September through November with orange indicating above-normal temperatures and blue the opposite. In the bottom pane we have the difference from normal CDDs with the same color ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 25, 2024 | |
| How do you know when winter has started? Here in Portland, you know its winter when people celebrate every day without rain like it’s a national holiday. In the New England it’s when they switch from pants (because they‘re afraid of ticks) to short (to show they’re not afraid of the cold). In the world of natural gas, winter as arrived when ResCom demand starts to rise. In this blog we look at what that winter ResCom transition looks like in different parts of North America. Knowing cold weather increases natural gas demandm how the story plays out looks a little different in each region. Figure 1 | Alberta Weekday ResCom Demand (BCF/d) vs Temperature (F) The above chart shows the relationship between average daily temperature and ResCom demand. Each circle ... » read more | |
| Friday Nov 22, 2024 | |
| My son’s Halloween Trick or Treat haul last month was a lot like solar in CAISO this past year. He brought back such an enormously filled bag, that its consumption needed to be significantly curtailed. My wife, as is her early-November custom, hid the bag after letting him gorge for a couple days. Really though, I don’t think she was hiding it from just him. She won’t tell me where she put it either, and if she had, I’d go grab a Twix right now and take a photo of the stash for this blog. She’ll bust it out when my son’s friends come over, but until then, he and I spend our spare moments sheepishly poking through drawers and backs of closets. So instead of showing you a big sack of candy ... » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 21, 2024 | |
| The Pacific Northwest is certainly no stranger to rain, but the storms that raged in Western Washington earlier this week on Tuesday were unusually potent. The atmospheric river weather system that has been on the radar for the PNW and northern California arrived with a bang, transforming into a bomb cyclone Tuesday with winds and heavy rain that dropped power lines, produced flooding, and left more than half a million without power Tuesday night. The excitement is not yet over and the precipitation is set to move eastward, inland across the Cascades to deliver its payload in eastern Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This can be seen in the figure below, which shows a snapshot of the 5-day and 10-day precipitation forecasts published by the Northwest River Forecast Center ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 20, 2024 | |
| Over the past few years, Alberta has been pushed to the extremes, hitting both its price floor and price cap more frequently. The figure below displays the number of hours spent at the $0/MWh price floor and the $1000/MWh price cap for each year since 2018. Data for 2024 goes through the first fourteen days of November. The number of hours at $0/MWh hit an inflection point in 2024. While 2020 and 2023 both had between 40 and 50 hours at the floor (other years displayed had less than 15), 315 hours have been at $0/MWh in 2024 so far. Moving to the price cap, the number of hours increased from 4 hours in 2018 to 26 hours so far in 2024. Every year since 2021 has had more than 10 hours at the cap while every year since 2022 has had more than 15. The data is separated into hourly groups of ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 19, 2024 | |
| As we move through the back half of November, the transition from fall to winter is becoming increasingly apparent in some regions, though it remains delayed in others. In the Pacific Northwest, the shorter days, cooler temperatures, and persistent rain clearly signal the seasonal shift. However, this transition has been less pronounced in areas such as the Northeast, South Central, and parts of the Midwest, where moderate to warmer-than-normal temperatures experienced in the first half of November have postponed the onset of winter conditions. While some regions are firmly embracing the chill of the season, others are experiencing a slower progression, with fall’s warmth lingering longer than usual. Since last month, Mother Nature has delivered mostly moderate weather conditions ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 18, 2024 | |
| In summer, power market pricing comes down in a large part to the ability of generation to meet the demands in peak hours. However, come the shoulder season tightness rarely comes from extreme peak loads but instead depends on what generation resources remain available. For that reason, closely tracking the natural constraints and seasonal outages becomes key to understanding where the market stands. CAISO’s shoulder season has kept us on our toes. Hydro is one generation source which has delivered some surprises, demonstrating the maximum that you can never step in the same river twice. Figure 1 | Peak Net Load vs Peak Hydro The above figure gives a long-term view on the output of the hydro system. What’s most obvious from this chart is the roughly aligned seasonal ... » read more | |
| Friday Nov 15, 2024 | |
| The Washington State Cap-and-Invest program survived Initiative 2117 and will soon close out its second compliance year, marking the halfway point of the 2023-2026 compliance period. We still have no solid data from the program operator about emission levels since 2019. Our analysis continues to show a program with estimated emissions far in excess of the program cap – a structural short position. This short position can be filled in one of three ways – release of allowances currently held in the Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR), linking with California and Quebec (pushing the short position into a larger market), or release of more allowances at the ceiling price. Energy GPS analysis shows the program may be able to balance for Vintage Year 2024 with APCR allowances ... » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 14, 2024 | |
| The month of November has seen some changes in the water supply outlook for the 2025 water year. These changes were relatively small moves in the grand scheme of things, but enough to produce larger movements in our expectation for hydro generation once winter and spring come around. This topic was at the forefront of the latest Energy GPS PNW Hydro Report and Discussion. At the start of the month the January-July seasonal water supply forecast was at 90.3 MAF (for the ESP10 forecast), or 87% of the 30-year average of 103.7 MAF that we tie our projections to as the “normal”. By late last week on the 9th that number had risen to 96.4 MAF, or 93% of normal, driven up by the heavy precipitation in the short-term forecast. Since the weekend, we saw ... » read more | |