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| Monday Oct 31, 2022 | |
| Everyone has been in a predicament where some at-home project has gone sideways to which you rush to the local hardware store to see if they have the solution. In a bigger project, it usually boils down to not having the right tool for the job, to which makes running to the hardware store look easy. After a few hours of using the wrong tools, the time is now to google search the nearest tool rental shop to see if they have it at the neighborhood store or is it at the one a few miles further down the road. When the person on the other end of the phone call states “yes, we have the equipment at this store. Would you like me to hold it for you?” The question had only one answer, “yes please, I will be right over”. Figure 1 | The Right Tool for the ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 28, 2022 | |
| This fall I’ve hit the road again to some favorite upland bird hunting spots in Eastern Montana and Eastern Oregon in search of Grouse, Partridge, and Pheasant. While on the road I noticed a change in the technology and supply chain of wind turbines. In Shelby Montana, we saw enormous wind turbines being shipped via railway. These turbines were not only very large, but they had spikes on roughly the lower third of the wind blade. After some speculation we turned to Google and found that these are primarily for noise reduction. Siemens calls their technology “DinoTails”[1] and started using them in 2000 (guess I’ve never noticed). These are used to help meet noise regulations at sites and thus produce more energy instead of operating at ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 27, 2022 | |
| Mid-C has continued to hold its own in the West this week, even with plentiful wind showing up in the Pacific Northwest as well as the DC line outage reducing export capacity. This strength continues to be on the heels of colder weather that is displayed via the power demand profiles across the region. With PNW pricing hanging in there for the time being, the end of October is bringing a significant change to hydro operations that will pose a further challenge and threaten to flip the script to the structural power demand growth in the region? The change starts with the chum operations here at the end of the month and continues into the month of November. We are staring at a forecast that includes a precipitation pattern that has been avoiding the region up until this ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 26, 2022 | |
| October 1st is the date that shifts the mindset in the power sector from that of the summer months (Q3) to that of the fall (Q4) where the start to winter is right around the corner. The date also has importance when it comes to the hydro systems across the West as it is the time of year that things get reset and a new Water Year begins for the Pacific Northwest, California, and the Desert Southwest/Rockies. Now we know the rivers never stop flowing, but it does give the federal agencies running the systems to take inventory of their storage levels, revamp any non-energy requirements (like fish constraints) and gather as much information as possible to what Mother Nature might have in store with the current longer-term weather forecast. Part of October is spent on making ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 25, 2022 | |
| Sailing into the wind is an expression used on the high sea by experience captains navigating the waters at sea. It often is referred to in the sailing circles as a boat's ability to move forward even if it is headed into the wind. Since it is nearly impossible to sail directly into the wind, the boat operators must angle their sail in a slightly forward direction than the sail force. It is then and only then that the boat moves forward as the keel of the boat acts to the water in a similar fashion as the sail acts to the wind. Translating it to nautical/physics terms, the sail is balanced by the force of the keel and keeps boat moving in the right direction. When it comes to the energy sector, the SPP system operators is the captain of the balancing ship known as ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 24, 2022 | |
| The weekend was filled with sunshine and warmer weather across most of the country, which is hard to believe since it was the start of the final week of October. If you have been following the dialogue in the EnergyGPS SPP and ERCOT Daily reports, which are a part of the regional packages we offer to individuals like yourself, we have been detailing how the warmth was going to be combined with some massive wind generation in both balancing entities. Most of the month has delivered modest wind, to which has been reflected in the auction clears as the sharp drop around the time the power demand profile is rising (later afternoon/evening ramp) creates havoc for the model solving the equation. The massive wind creates just as much havoc with the solution tied to sending a negative ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 21, 2022 | |
| Last Friday we published an article talking about ERCOT’s “HE20” problem. To briefly summarize, ERCOT’s unique combination of high wind penetration and growing solar presence currently results in less of a duck curve or evening ramp problem like what CAISO experiences, and more of an acute 1-or-2-hour period of scarcity that typically occurs around 7 or 8 in the evening. The article was prompted by one such scarcity event that occurred on the 12th of October, when the real time prices across all four hubs peaked at $1700/MWh due to a combination of high demand, and rapid loss of generation as the sun set before wind picked up. However, the scarcity event lasted about half an hour: prior to the event, there had been plenty of solar generation, and after the event ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 20, 2022 | |
| Recent transplants to the Portland area may find themselves questioning the conventional wisdom that the region is gloomy and wet for eight months out of every year or more, since the fall so far has continued where the summer left off with bright, sunny skies and pleasantly warm weather—even bordering on hot at times. Instead of rain clouds or fog in the air, the first thing you notice when you leave your house in the morning the past few days is the pungent odor thanks to the Nakia Creek fire near Camas, Washington that is blowing smoke down South across the Columbia River and making Portland smell more like a campfire than the typical fall. It is a testament to how dry it has been in October so far that the Nakia Creek fire has stuck around for so long and grown to ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 19, 2022 | |
| As more regions around the country fight to meet increasingly ambitious renewable goals, the growing problem remains curtailments. Unlike thermal plants that can turned on and off to meet demand whenever it occurs, renewables are limited to the hours when nature shows up. With wind this can be variable, but solar is consistent. The sun shines during the day, although sometimes blocked by clouds, but is weakening or gone during the busiest hours of the day when it comes to power demand. What results is an abundance of energy during the middle of the day that needs to be curtailed and a lack of supply during the evening ramp. As solar grows in California, so does the curtailment problem and the evening ramp problem. The current market solution is batteries, designed to take from the grid ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 18, 2022 | |
| Yesterday's NYMEX was one of the most violent sell offs we have seen in the history of the market. Futures fell 45 cents which was 7% of value in just hours taking the prompt contract down to just $5.99. The move continues the slide that began in late August just prior to the September bid week when as a comparative fuel, the price of methane has usurped the price of ethane. For a practical matter, the two are not perfect substitutes as the differences in heat and water content make the ability to push ethane into the natural gas stream a limited endeavor. Since it can be accomplished in small doses, ethane can also be used as a substitute for natural gas in industrial sectors daily operations if the supply can be readily secured. Back in August the appreciation of NYMEX ... » read more | |