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Thursday Jul 21, 2016   
On a daily basis, Texas production is hard to quantify as most wells are sitting on intra-state pipelines which are not subject to FERC jurisdiction.  In our daily scapes (shown later in this newsletter), we can see some of the points and have a regression model that uplifts the South Central regions total daily production to what we think is going on within the state.  The way we calibrate the numbers on a monthly basis is to look at both EIA and the Texas Railroad Commission monthly data.  The latter posted new data yesterday and here is what we have ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 20, 2016   
The CAISO Day-Ahead auction for today saw a binding constraint (congestion) over path 26 N to S.  As far as we can tell, this was an unplanned reduction in capacity on the line as the posted Path 26 capacity rating was unchanged day on day.  As a result, the SP15/NP15 day-ahead heavy load spread widened to $6.66 pre-carbon and $5.18 for the energy only component.  Figure 1 breaks down the Path 26 congestion by hourly buckets and shows the day on day change.  As you can see by the first column flat, the Path 26 constraint was new for today's flow ... » read more
Tuesday Jul 19, 2016   
Rockies Express Pipeline will have construction this week as part of the expansion of the Zone 3 delivery capabilities. During this construction several meters will have to be shut down to accommodate the additional tie ins. As per the REX Informational Postings page, the Markwest Seneca meter point is expected to be out of service July 19 - 22. Checking the volumes this morning, we see no drop off in activity.   Figure 1 | Rockies Express Meter Posting This outage is expected to start today. We checked the outage listings on the Tallgrass Partners page and ... » read more
Monday Jul 18, 2016   
With the dog days of summer are upon us in most parts of the country starting last week and continuing on into this week.  Comparing the recent heat to last year, you can see that the net load is coming in about a week ahead of where things peaked last year. Figure 1 | Net Load for US - 7 Day Rolling Average As load started to march higher over the last two weeks we have see a strong response from the the coal fleet. Last Wednesday's coal generation topped 188 GWs which is is the strongest we have seen all year. Thursday's output looked down but ... » read more
Friday Jul 15, 2016   
Today's newsletter is a continuation from yesterday, where we discussed how the East, Midwest and South were seeing above normal temperatures which have ultimately shifted up overall loads in the specific regions.  With that comes higher power burns, with the East leading the charge. Figure 1 | US Power Burns - 7 Day Rolling Average As we stated yesterday, the most recent shift in in the power burns has come with the Pacific Northwest and California markets seeing below normal temperatures since coming out of the long 4th of July weekend. Figure 2 | West Average ... » read more
Thursday Jul 14, 2016   
Over the past couple of weeks, the nuclear fleet has seen some volatility in the units that are offline as we get deeper into summer.  As a result, the year on year delta is showing 2.5 GWs more offline for today compared to an year ago.  The month to date average is showing just under 3 GWs more offline.  From a gas perspective, that equates to roughly .5 BCF/d. Figure 1 | Nuclear Regulatory Commission - Outage Table This, along with above normal temperatures seen across the country (except California and Pacific Northwest), plays into how strong the ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 13, 2016   
Over the last couple of days we have noticed and interesting development at the Palo Verde import node which connects Southern California and the Desert Southwest. Starting on Tuesday we began to see negative congestion scheduling at the import node in the day ahead market.  The congestion hit to the tune of $10.20 driving down the price at Palo resulting in an $11.14 SP/PV spread.  Figure 1| CAISO DA LMP - 7/12 HL  The congestion hit again for today resulting in $6.6 of congestion and a $8.02 SP/PV spread.  Looking at the list of ... » read more
Tuesday Jul 12, 2016   
In our daily and weekly reports we have noted a tightness in the daily supply and demand balances as each successive EIA number reflects a shrinking of the year on year inventory surplus. Now that we are 3 months into the injection season it is time to do a quick accounting of just how the various supply and demand components that make up the balances are faring. In Figure 1, we have done a quick table that depicts how the deficit is shrinking over the past nine weeks. Figure 1 | EIA Component - Year on Year Comparison Columns from left to right: EIA ... » read more
Monday Jul 11, 2016   
As we head into the middle of July, summer seems to be upon us in most parts of the country as the likes of New York City is looking at highs in the upper 80's/low 90's this week, Houston is in the upper 90's all week and Chicago is sitting in the low 90's early in the week.  This has pushed up the overall net demand, which is not surprising when you look at the trajectory of last year during the same month. Figure 1 | EnergyGPS Net Load - 7 Day Rolling Average As you can see, by the end of the month in 2015, the net load touched the 400 GW mark as Texas was ... » read more
Friday Jul 8, 2016   
Sometimes I feel like maybe I’m too cynical. Can you blame me? I’ve spent more than 20 years working in the Western US wholesale power arena. I’ve seen my share of ill-advised policies come out of the Golden State. I’ve seen utilities in the rest of the WECC resist change and perpetuate the status quo. That’s not to say all policy innovations out of California have been bad – some have been clearly flawed while others have worked quite well. Resisting change can cut both ways as well. Knowing which innovations to avoid and which to ... » read more
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