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| Thursday Jan 8, 2026 | |
| With 2025 in the books, it’s the time for a retrospective, to check in on how markets across the country finished off the year. Our latest Renewable Monthly, “December 2025 – That’s a Wrap” focuses on the renewable impacts during the final month of 2025. Below is portion taken from the report and adjusted slightly, touching on the big changes that came to the West during the past month. The biggest shift in West power markets was the arrival of strong precipitation, first to the Pacific Northwest and then south to California. In both regions, warm weather caused most precipitation to fall as rain, leading to an unusually strong start to the hydro season. The precipitation also led to a rapid increase in high elevation snowpack, especially sitting high up in ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 7, 2026 | |
| MISO is expecting a warm start to the new year as temperatures across the middle of the country have swung above normal for January. It’s in sharp contrast to the start of last year which had back-to-back cold months to begin 2025. This warmth continues for the rest of the week across MISO and into the next for some parts of the region, but the end of the month may be showing hints of a true start to winter. Figure 1 | Cumulative Midwest HDDs by Month The figure above shows cumulative heating degree days for the Midwest over the last several years in December, January, and February. Only the first 20 days of January are shown across the years to match how many datapoints are available with this year’s 15-day forecast. Starting in December, which sits at the top of the figure ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 6, 2026 | |
| Mother Nature is extending a stretch of unseasonably warm conditions across the SPP footprint, with above-normal temperatures expected to persist through most of the first half of January. This warmth is translating directly into muted demand, keeping system load well below typical winter norms. As shown in the top pane in figure 1, daily load peaks generally remain in the low-to-mid 30 GW range, with averages closer to the low 30s GW. The forecast suggests little deviation from this pattern in the near term, as the lack of sustained cold limits heating demand and caps any upside risk to load. In short, SPP enters January with a notably soft demand profile, setting the tone for relatively relaxed system conditions. At the same time, wind generation is poised to play an outsized role in ... » read more | |
| Monday Jan 5, 2026 | |
| Across North America, the renewable transitions carried on in 2025. Each region’s grid has had a shifting supply stack as plenty of new solar and wind generators plug into the grid. This makes for more day-to-day variability in operations as weather can quickly strengthen or weaken the overall capacity for renewable output. The following figures give a visual of renewable generation in a collection of regions, which helps us picture that day-to-day story. Figure 1 | CAISO Renewable Generation Stack (MW) The early winter has brought very animated weather to the Golden State. This includes unusually high precipitation in southern California, associated with increased cloud cover. This creates difficulties for solar projects, many of which typically enjoy year-round sun, as well as ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 2, 2026 | |
| In December, Mother Nature delivered plenty of gifts to the West coast’s rivers and dams. We saw two combined weather phenomena that shaped the current state of the hydro landscape. The first was a long-lasting atmospheric river. This first arrived in the Pacific northwest and then eventually shifted south to California. The second weather phenomenon was record-breaking cumulative warmth across much of the West. In combination, this gave us a striking rainfall event. In another year, much of this precipitation could have landed as snow, but this time we saw rain even at high elevations, especially near the pacific. This has set the scene for an interesting water year, with exceptionally strong early season generation and patchy snow accumulation, raising questions for next spring ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 31, 2025 | |
| East of the Rockies continues to spread cold temperatures across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast while the likes of Texas and the West are displaying modest temperatures for this time of year. The movement as of late pushed the prompt month (February 2026 contract) over the $4.00 level during bid-week while the January contract slid off the board roughly $0.40 higher. Up until last night, the market was trying to hold onto such levels knowing there was a cold air mass stuck in Central Canada that could push further south during any given model run. Figure 1 | Continental US Degree Day Forecast vs. Last Year/Normal The image above incorporates the latest 15-day model run where it represents the cumulative degree day (since it is winter we are talking mostly heating ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 30, 2025 | |
| The holiday spirit is in transition from gift giving to that of watching the ball drop when the clock strikes midnight on the east coast, symbolizing the calendar roll from the end of 2025 to the start of 2026. Over the past year, there has been a lot happening in the energy space and more lies ahead as Mother Nature is delivering the next round of colder temperatures to the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Figure 1 | Holiday Transition from One Year to Another In 2025, we saw policy changes occur under the new presidency with bills being passed early and often. Renewable technology continued to penetrate the supply stack capacity chain with solar technology being on the rise across California, Texas and parts of the Midwest. Battery technology followed as it is a natural fit ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 29, 2025 | |
| The holiday season offers a moment of light on the darkest days of the year, and a stretch of rest and recovery during the power space’s tumultuous winter season. Of course, too much R&R can see us returning to a hangover. This metaphor also holds for day-to-day market operations throughout the holidays. With many businesses closed, power demand often takes a dive. This was especially true this year, as Christmas was quickly followed by the weekend. With demand on the back foot, too much R&R strained the grid with some unusual results. Figure 1 | CAISO Curtailments (MWh) with Real-time LMP ($/MWh) California had a pronounced holiday hangover, which resulted in the most pronounced curtailments since back in fall. In the three rows of the figure above we see solar ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 24, 2025 | |
| Alberta is in the middle of a bitter cold streak that’s pushing demand to new heights. In last Wednesday’s blog, we wrote about the new record level of demand set in Alberta on Thursday, December 11th. It left the previous record of 12, 384 MW far behind and soared to 12,785 MW. The following week offered a brief reprieve from the below-normal temperatures, but demand levels continued to come in strong. The figure below shows average Alberta temperature forecasts from each day going back to December 9th. The newest forecast is on the far right, showing expected average temperatures through the first 6 days of January 2026. Moving left to right shows how the forecasts have evolved. Average temperatures on the 11th came in just under the 0-degree F mark. Then last week, averages ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 23, 2025 | |
| Since the final days of November, a sustained cold pattern has dominated much of the country east of the Cascades, cementing an early start to winter across the Central and Northern regions. Repeated intrusions of Arctic air kept temperatures suppressed well into the first half of December, driving elevated heating demand from the Northern Plains through the Midwest and into parts of the South Central corridor. The lack of meaningful breaks in the cold reinforced stronger-than-normal load profiles, setting the stage for tighter power and gas fundamentals as winter conditions took hold earlier than usual. Figure 1 | South Central Temperature Forecast – AG2 Trader That pattern, however, has been reversing course. Forecasts point to a pronounced warm-up building across the South ... » read more | |