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| Monday Nov 10, 2025 | |
| Outages stand out as an important theme across electricity markets now. This stretch of the fall season is an important opportunity to conduct necessary maintenance across the electricity grid. Nuclear outages are some of the most impactful. Each nuclear unit provides roughly a GW of load, so when they turn off or on, they are sure to make a splash. This is especially true of CAISO’s Diablo Canyon units, as it adds yet another challenge to the California grid’s already challenging fall power landscape. Figure 1 | CAISO Thermal & Nuclear Generation (MW) The figure above shows nuclear generation (blue) and thermal generation (yellow) withing yellow. CAISO’s nuclear stack only includes two Diablo Canyon units. Its thermal stack consists primarily of natural gas plants. » read more | |
| Friday Nov 7, 2025 | |
| A week into the month of November: trees are losing more leaves, Halloween is in the rearview mirror (and, for some reason, Christmas decorations are coming out), and the weather is starting to get cooler. In Texas, it's still not exactly cold, but temperatures for the upcoming weekend and the start of next week are forecasted to be cooler than normal, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s for a lot of the region. The seasonal transition is manifesting in the electricity markets as well, in a variety of different ways. Here are some of the transitional signs we're seeing in the ERCOT market in particular: Outages are flattening out or starting to come down. While they're still near what will likely be their peak for the year, they've been trending downward over the past week. » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 6, 2025 | |
| While so often the focus in the energy space is rightfully placed on renewables, this summer and early fall has been witness to a resurgence of the oft-maligned coal generator in markets across the country. In our latest Special Report we focus on one market in particular, SPP, where coal numbers over the last month have impressed compared to recent years. The SPP region wrapped up October under a spell of cooler-than-normal temperatures, with readings across key cities such as Omaha, Wichita, and Oklahoma City dipping into the 30s and low 40s for morning lows, while highs struggled to reach the mid-50s through November 1st. This shift briefly brought heating demand into play, shaping the load profile into the classic double-hump pattern typical of colder days. The cool spell capped off ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 5, 2025 | |
| The middle of the country is preparing for a streak of cold days. While it isn’t expected to last long, MISO is expecting chilly temperatures that will dip below seasonal normals at the beginning next week. The figure below is a snapshot of Atmospheric G2’s aggregate temperature forecast for MISO, MISO South, and MISO North. The blue indicates the days that will drop to below normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows for MISO North are expected to drop below freezing while high temperatures stay below 50 degrees F. MISO South won’t be quite as cold, but still lows will drop to the mid-30s, quite a departure from the low 60-degree level expected later this week. It’s all part of a late start to fall that we analyzed in a recent Midwest natural gas market ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 4, 2025 | |
| Alberta is closing out October under unusually mild conditions, with Mother Nature in no hurry to bring winter. Most of the province enjoyed temperatures near or above seasonal norms, with only brief cold interruptions. This extended warmth has effectively delayed the onset of true heating-season demand, setting a calm tone as the gas market moves into November. Forecasts for the first half of November continue to favor mild and above-normal readings across Alberta and British Columbia. Daily highs in the 40s°F range and limited overnight freezes suggest the region’s warm streak will persist. The result: another stretch of moderate system demand and a postponed seasonal shift that market participants are closely watching. Figure 1 | AESO Weather Forecast, November 3-November 13 ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 3, 2025 | |
| Here in Portland, on-and-off rainy weather has settled over the valley. In just the last week we have had downpours, clear blue skies, and a double rainbow. Zooming out, the Pacific northwest is likewise looking forward to a mixed bag of winter precipitation. This has us hard at work, considering what this means for upcoming hydro generation in the Columbia basin. Figure 1 | NWRFC 120 day Volume (% of Average) Forecast This forecast estimates water volumes for point across the PNW in the next 120 days. This gives us a view into expected precipitation and hydro operations across the Columbia, North America’s most energy-rich river basin. Above, we see volumes coded by color in terms of percent of average. Predicted volumes paint a picture of varied conditions, with healthy river ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 31, 2025 | |
| We’ve observed record-level capacity additions in the WECC in the last few years with nearly 12 GW of additions in 2023, 16 GW in 2024, and almost 11 GW through September 2025. The distribution of this capacity among resource type, and location, can have a large impact on hourly price formation. Figure 1 depicts the additions by resource type and year. Figure 1 | Historical capacity additions by fuel type in the U.S. portion of the WECC. Data from the EIA 860M through September 2025. The figure above shows the capacity additions across the WECC by year and by resource type with only data available through September 2025. Record levels of capacity were added in 2023 and 2024, and this capacity was comprised primarily of storage and solar ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 30, 2025 | |
| The last several days have marked an uptick in load within CAISO, as the state of California has seen some shoulder season heat with temperatures in Sacramento north of 80 degrees and Burbank sitting at 90+ degrees for the afternoon high. Also playing into the CAISO load equation is the rapid and continued growth in the ISO’s battery fleet. The figure below is taken from our US Renewables Dashboard and plots CAISO total battery capacity since the start of 2022, including past reported actuals as well as forecasted capacity growth into 2026. Since the end of last year, battery capacity has risen from 12 GW and is expected to hit 15.5 GW by the end of 2025. Figure 1 | CAISO Battery Capacity The growth has been accompanied by steady expansion of ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 29, 2025 | |
| Like many US regions, the Alberta power grid is experiencing structural load growth. Even with mostly above-normal temperatures staving off the usual frigid fall weather, demand levels are still outpacing recent years. The figure below, featured in our AESO Supply Demand dashboard, plots average Calgary temperatures against average AESO load levels in September and October. The red circles represent days in 2025, while the yellow displays data from 2024 and the blue from 2023. The red circles are clustered in the top right quadrant, representing both warmer and higher demand days. Despite this extra demand, pool prices have been coming in at $0/MWh for several hours most days in the last week. We’ll dive into the reasons for the low pricing in this blog. Figure 1 | Average Calgary ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 28, 2025 | |
| The South Central market is seeing mixed signals this fall as Mother Nature is set to play both sides of the temperature spectrum. After an extended stretch of warmer-than-normal conditions that kept demand elevated, cooler air is set to arrive in the coming days, briefly easing system load. However, forecasts call for a return of above-normal temperatures in the 10-15-day outlook, suggesting that demand could rebound and remain somewhat elevated heading into early November. Overall, the next 10–15 days are not shaping up to be particularly bullish, with temperatures expected to stay on the warm side of seasonal norms. Figure 1 | South Central Weather Forecast, October 27-November 10 – AG2 Trader As temperatures begin to ease, demand is trending lower—ushering in ... » read more | |