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| Friday Oct 3, 2025 | |
| So far this fall (and the preceding summer), temperatures in ERCOT have remained largely normal—not cool, but not especially hot. However, despite the lack of extreme weather, demand has been robust. Figure 1 | ERCOT HL Demand by Houston Temperature, Sep – Nov, 2023 – 2025 The figure above plots ERCOT HLH average demand against Houston temperature for weekdays during September, October, and November, this year and the past two years; each dot represents a day. This year (blue) immediately stands out. The past two years had relatively similar demand at a given temperature level (2023's extreme high temperatures are visible as it has the datapoints furthest to the right), but in contrast, this year has had markedly higher demand at every temperature shown. Another lens ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 2, 2025 | |
| The 4th quarter of 2025 has only just begun, but it already feels like fall has arrived in the Pacific Northwest. Each day waking up the morning air is feeling crisp and Mother Nature has delivered some of Portland’s signature rain this week after a drier than average September along the I-5 corridor. Temperatures are still moderate but are expected to cool significantly throughout the broader Pacific Northwest region over the next five days, including producing what would be the first freezing temperatures of the quarter overnight this Sunday in western Montana as well as Southern Oregon in Klamath Falls. Figure 1 | West Hourly Load by Market – Last 7 Days and Next 7 Days Forecast As the temperatures sink lower, the Northwest is expected to see a ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 30, 2025 | |
| Recently, we’ve discussed how September and October are often volatile months for the SPP market. Seasonal weather patterns, combined with transmission constraints since the maintenance season is here, create conditions where congestion between the North and South hubs tends to intensify. Wind generation (often robust during the shoulder season) can further complicate conditions. More megawatts seek to move where energy is needed just as transmission capacity is limited. Despite the official arrival of fall, late-summer warmth is persisting, with forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures across the region. Figure 1 | SPP Weather Forecast, AG2 Trader Despite mild weather, demand has been stronger this year than in 2023 or 2024. Figure 2 plots average temperatures versus ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 29, 2025 | |
| In summer, power burns stand out as the decisive factor in producing tight gas markets. As we move into fall, the focus shifts from power burns to maintenance schedules. Although outright demand is low, frequent interruptions to supply can easily spark elevated prices. This is especially true with winter just around the corner, and a desire to store away molecules in preparation. Figure 1 | GTN Pipeline Capacity Dashboard (BCF) Our first figure shows the latest maintenance schedule (green), the previous maintenance schedule (red) and flows (blue) for two key points on the GTN pipeline. Kingsgate, on the US/Canada border has an off-and-on schedule with frequent swings between supply squeezes and supply gluts. When flows are unconstrained, we see a few 100 MMcf more of cheap, Canadian gas ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 26, 2025 | |
| Modeling from Energy GPS suggests that a 75% carbon-free WECC grid can be reached with existing technology at a fiscally-reasonable pace of nameplate capacity additions. However, to increase the carbon-free content much above 80% in most regions requires either substantial “clean baseload” resources such as nuclear or geothermal, or alternatively, massive additions of solar plus storage. With the PTC and ITC eliminated by the OBBB, the entire cost will be borne by ratepayers, or non-energy revenue streams such as RECs. The question then becomes, if the grid only becomes X% renewable, what happens to price formation and asset revenue streams? We explored this in a recent Special Report titled Long-Term Forecasts of Solar-to-Storage Ratios. Our latest Special Report used ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 25, 2025 | |
| With warm temperatures still persisting late into September throughout Alberta, the summer is getting a bit of an extension. AESO load has yet to come off from the levels seen earlier in the month, and the current September average hourly profile is holding level with (or even slightly above) that of August for the evening peak. AESO has seen tremendous load growth show up on the grid this summer, such that even without excessive heat the ISO can still feel the pinch, as it has this week. This was not made any easier to manage when the ISO was left on an island heading into last weekend as all four transmission lines into Alberta were derated and brought down to zero volume flowing in and out, a fact that has persisted throughout the week. We first discussed the ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 24, 2025 | |
| The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), an agency of the US Department of Transportation, sets and enforces guidelines to ensure safe transport of natural gas and other materials. Natural gas pipeline companies in the US must work to monitor their operations and update their infrastructure when necessary to meet these standards, keeping conditions safe for communities near the pipeline. The work required can oftentimes come with a long timeline that impacts the ability to transport the usual levels of natural gas. Here at EnergyGPS, we monitor the notices from natural gas pipelines, taking special interest in the alerts containing the letters ‘PHMSA’. One recent example with a particularly distant end date came from SoCal Gas. The first notice came ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 23, 2025 | |
| It is hard to believe we are already approaching the final days of September, which means Fall has officially arrived with the change of seasons yesterday. Mother Nature is starting to show fall-like signals: days are growing shorter, overnight temperatures are cooling, although some late summer-like conditions remain in parts of North America early in the forecast. In our latest South Central market flash, we reviewed the conditions observed this summer and where the market is headed as we move into fall. Natural gas demand from the power sector (often referred to as power burns) was notably softer this summer compared to recent years in the South Central market. Two major factors drove this slowdown: mild weather that limited electricity demand despite ongoing structural growth in areas ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 19, 2025 | |
| My first visceral and emotional experience with the power of a battery, or at least stored energy, was, in my estimation, the greatest toy ever made: the Evel Knievel Stunt Cycle, as shown in Figure 1. The marvel of this product is that it combined the likeness and reputation of Evel Knievel, a 70’s icon of motorcycle stunts and random acts of recklessness and fearlessness, with a motorcycle and launcher that enabled kids to send him flying off a jump into any ravine, abyss, or mud puddle in the neighborhood. The toy, unlike Evel, was seemingly unbreakable. The magic of the device was a heavy flywheel (energy storage) embedded within the motorcycle back wheel and connected to the launcher which would transfer energy from the hand crank into the flywheel. This ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 18, 2025 | |
| While for most the fast-approaching date of September 30th means the end of the summer or the end of the 3rd quarter of the year, for those in the know it marks the end of 2025. For the Pacific Northwest hydro system, the calendar operates based on the water year, which begins on October 1st and lasts until September 30th. So we are currently less than two weeks away from the end of the 2025 water year and the transition to 2026. With that in mind, attention is starting to turn to the coming fall and the new water year and how things are likely to play out. There has been some excitement this week, starting with a change in the STP streamflow forecast moving a significant volume of water out of October and into September. Total system hydro generation saw a ... » read more | |