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Wednesday Jul 1, 2015   
With both the LA Basin and Northern California warming up today, the CAISO Day Ahead (DA) auction results soared as NP15 cleared $75.34 (roughly $10 higher day on day) while SP15 came in at $65.73. With natural gas sitting around $3.24 up at PGAE CG and $3.04 at SoCal Border, this put the carbon adjusted implied heat rates at 19.45 and 18.06 respectively across the heavy load hours. Listed below are the key drivers to such a move: DA Scheduled Load | with Sacramento showing highs in the 106-108 degree range, this has prompted more scheduled demand across Northern ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 30, 2015   
As June comes to an end, the oxygen is thin as we ascent to the top of the 'Heat Rate Ridge' which is atop the highest mountain in the Pacific Northwest.  Over course of the climb this month, the journey has led us through very little snowpack and below normal water conditions, we have crossed some high temperature zones, stepped over some wind storms that come and go at a moments notice and have been running into stiff competition with other groups trying to climb the same mountain.  All this has led to us extending a lot of energy just to achieve our goal ... » read more
Monday Jun 29, 2015   
This weekend was suppose to be hot, with some forecasters calling for triple digits in the Portland metro area.  What we got was slightly cooler temperatures (only in the mid-90's) but plenty of humidity.  With the overnight lows only dipping down into the mid/upper 60's, the combination of the heat and humidity starting wearing thin on the everyone by Sunday afternoon. Figure 1 | Portland Temperatures - Actual and Forecast This led to the river and public water fountains across the city to be jammed packed with people as they were trying to cool off. » read more
Friday Jun 26, 2015   
Starting out with where things have been, prompt month prices hung around $2.75 early in week before jumping up almost $0.10 to settle at $2.850 for the July contract on Thursday. The rise in the forwards came with an EIA storage number broadly in line with expectations – a 75 BCF injection. What drove the increase? The first place to look is at temperature expectations. The NOAA maps, a reliable indicator of how short-term temperatures will average compared to normal is showing an increasing likelihood of above normal conditions for much of the East coast over ... » read more
Thursday Jun 25, 2015   
We have been focusing on the Pacific Northwest as of late given the weather forecast is calling for triple digits in Portland and Spokane being 105 degrees this weekend.  Add to it this year's hydro situation and you have a pretty tight grid.  The one thing that was keeping the overall Midc prices from 'virtually' exploding has been the California (CAISO) day-ahead auction clears have been somewhat moderate with SP15 clearing in the 11.5-12.0 range during the heavy load time period. That all changed yesterday when the auction clears shifted up over $8.50 to ... » read more
Wednesday Jun 24, 2015   
This coming weekend is showing a heat wave moving across the Western part of the country as several cities will be staring at triple digit highs.  Starting in the Pacific Northwest, both Portland and Spokane are showing triple digits by Saturday, with the former at 102 degrees while the latter is 104 going to 108 degrees by Sunday.  These types of temperatures are well above normal for this time of year and without a doubt increase the overall demand in the region.  Moving slightly east, Boise is staring at similar temperatures as Spokane while Salt ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 23, 2015   
My father in law (Marv) was born and raised in Iowa and over the past 12 years, he always tells me if the corn in Iowa is knee high by the 4th of July you are going to have a pretty good year.  For this to happen, the weather has to cooperate as the corn needs plenty of rain along with the sunshine to allow it to grow. Yesterday, we we drove from Wisconsin down to Cedar Falls, Iowa to see good Ole Marv as he is turning 84 years old next week.  As we headed south, a massive Midwest thunderstorm moved through the southern part of Minnesota and the winds were ... » read more
Monday Jun 22, 2015   
After watching the US Open and the seeing brown tall rough, non-green fairways and the beautiful backdrop of the Puget Sound/Mt Rainer, one might think it never rains in the Great Northwest.  This year that has been the case as a high pressure ridge in the North Pacific and has treated us with above normal temperatures and little rain over the past 6 months.  During that time, EnergyGPS has published several reports and insights to how the 2015 hydro year was going to play out via our Pacific Northwest Hydro Package. With the lack of snow and above normal ... » read more
Friday Jun 19, 2015   
Yesterday’s weekly EIA storage number showed that natural gas injections for the US totaled 89 BCF for the week ending on June 12th, putting total storage at 2,433 BCF. This number serves as a good opportunity to look at what has been changing in the natural gas system and what’s potentially ahead in the upcoming weeks. First, the 89 BCF injection number posted yesterday represented a significant decline in the pace of injections from the previous week when injections had totaled 111 BCF. Nonetheless, injections managed to beat the 5-year average by 3 BCF ... » read more
Thursday Jun 18, 2015   
Over the past week, the ridge that has been sitting over the West Coast decided to move inland as the likes of Salt Lake City, Denver and Phoenix have all seen their respective daytime highs increase by 10-12 degrees.  For example, Salt Lake City is currently showing a high of 95 degrees for today and by Sunday triple digits are in the cards.  Down in Phoenix, it is just plain ole hot as the middle of the day is anywhere between 110-115 degrees with night time lows in the low 80's. Figure 1 | Phoenix Actual and Forecast Temperatures Such an increase in ... » read more
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