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Friday Mar 18, 2016   
Since the beginning of the month the Algonquin cash basis a ticked downward as load came off and temperatures rose in New England. Algonquin Citygates is considered one of, if not the, premium priced hubs for natural gas in the country as the strong demand and relatively low capacity can drive large and volatile price spreads.  Typically we see Algonquin Citygates price above Henry hub, however since March 8th the basis has been negative with Algonquin gas settling near $1. Figure 1 | Algonquin Citygates Cash Prices vs Henry Hub March 2016 - ... » read more
Thursday Mar 17, 2016   
Survive and Advance It’s tournament time people! Time to sit back and enjoy the dance which will unfold in front of our eyes over the next few weeks. As I sit here writing this newsletter I’m watching the ESPN “30 for 30” story about the North Carolina State 1983 championship team coached by Jim Valvano. Sports create wonderful storylines, and this NC State team represents one of the best. NC State had to win nine straight do-or-die games starting with the ACC tournament on their way to the NCAA championship. They beat Virginia with ... » read more
Wednesday Mar 16, 2016   
EGPS Newsletter | Midwest Coal to Natural Gas Switching Wednesday March 16, 2016 This past winter has been the warmest winter on record for the Lower 48 states. As a result of this warmth, the year on year storage surplus has grown to more than 900 BCF. This surplus along with persistent production growth has pushed cash natural gas prices down to marginal cost at most basis locations in an attempt to incentivize production shut ins or new power burns. This recent price action is causing the pipeline system to rebalance itself. Production is coming off, storage fields ... » read more
Tuesday Mar 15, 2016   
With all the precipitation hitting Northern California over the past couple of weeks, Sunday/Monday culminated into Shasta seeing its highest inflows since 2005.  Figure 1 | Northern California Hydro Dam Flows - Daily As you can see in Figure 1, yesterday topped the 77 kcfs mark, which is over double what we saw last week and 17 kcfs more than Saturday.  What you also see is the outflows at Shasta still have not changed as they are still storing as much water as they can.  This is reflected in the daily elevation levels posted. Figure 2 | Shasta ... » read more
Monday Mar 14, 2016   
The last couple of weeks have been a very exciting time for energy policy in the Northwest. The enviros have much to celebrate. First the Oregon pro-RPS, anti-coal legislation was signed into law by Governor Kate Brown. Then on Friday the FERC issued an order denying the Jordan Cove Energy Project’s application under section 3 of the Natural Gas Act and Parts 153 and 380 of the Commission’s regulations to site, construct, and operate a LNG export terminal in Coos Bay Oregon. The FERC order makes for interesting reading. There were two applications in front ... » read more
Friday Mar 11, 2016   
EGPS Newsletter | NOAA Recap NOAA released their winter assessment on Tuesday confirming that this winter was the warmest on record for the lower 48 states.  Figure 1 | Dec 2015 – Feb 2016 Temperature Departures from Average You can see in Figure 1, there was not a single state that posted an average temperature below climatology normals between December and February.  At the beginning of the winter season, there was all this talk of a strong El Nino pattern that would continue to influence weather events.  This forward view was on the heals of ... » read more
Thursday Mar 10, 2016   
With another set of storms moving through the Pacific Northwest starting today and the overnight lows inching upward, the region is going to see its supply/demand picture shift quite a bit in the coming days.  First, load shifts down come the weekend and with daylight savings on the docket for Sunday early AM, the load profile will continue to swing lower during the evening ramp as the daytime hours will get longer. Figure 1 | BPA Load and Wind Profile - Hourly Second, the wind generation is going to be volatile with the storms.  As you can see in Figure 1 ... » read more
Wednesday Mar 9, 2016   
As we move towards the end of March we approach a turning point in the natural gas supply and demand equation as storage facilities switch from withdrawing gas and begin to inject.  Typically we see the turnaround happen close to April 1st.  Currently, this year is on track to do just that, however looking at the fundamentals it is entirely possible that the storage curve may flatten before then end of the month.       Figure 1| US Natural Gas Storage Levels - YoY   April 1st coincides with the end of winter and a decrease ... » read more
Tuesday Mar 8, 2016   
Yesterday, the EIA released the monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). In the words of the EIA, this report: "uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells to provide estimated changes in oil and natural gas production for seven key regions". The report estimates regional production for the current and next month for each of the basins. The latest update had a surprise in store for any expecting low prices ... » read more
Monday Mar 7, 2016   
In the final days of the 2016 legislative session, the Oregon House and Senate passed Senate Bill 1547 which makes sweeping changes to Oregon’s renewable energy policy. Governor Kate Brown is expected to sign the bill into law in the coming weeks. This legislation will stimulate the development of incremental renewable resources in Oregon and surrounding states. By and large, it seems like a reasonably thought through piece of legislation that will bring additional renewable energy to Oregon within certain cost containment parameters. Having said that, the 19 ... » read more
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