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Thursday May 14, 2015   
Earlier this week, the EIA released the latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). This report uses drilling rig data coupled with estimates of well productivity and estimated decline rates to forecast the production of oil and natural gas for the next month. The report focuses on the shale formations (Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobara, Permian and Utica) which collectively produce a total of about 46.3 bcf/d of natural gas. The Permian, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville are located mostly in Texas while the Bakken and Niobara shale plays are in the ... » read more
Wednesday May 13, 2015   
Today's market results showed a pretty good drop in the Path 15 congestion.  Over the past few weeks, such a binding constraint has driven up the NP15 price while knocking down the SP15 price.  Most of the action has showed up during the middle of the day when load is moderate, there is plenty of sunshine (solar) and less moving down on the Paci intertie due to Midc being stronger than what it was at the end of April.   For example, yesterday's Path 15 congestion for today averaged $10.36 for the heavy load with the middle of the day hours (13-17) ... » read more
Tuesday May 12, 2015   
Last week, the CAISO released the annual Summer Loads & Resources Assessment (SLRA). This report details how prepared the CAISO grid is for the upcoming summer from a reliability perspective when warmer weather will push peak loads over 50% higher than current levels. In order to assess preparedness, the CAISO forecasts expected peak load for both the 1:2 (one out of every two years will be greater) and 1:10 (one out of every ten years will be greater) cases. In addition, the CAISO reports on capacity additions and retirements, imports, and expected ... » read more
Monday May 11, 2015   
As we move into the middle of May, this month has created some interesting movement in the overall supply stack. Mother nature has played a roll as this year's hydro numbers are roughly 7,000 MWa less than a typical May month. Figure 1 | PNW Daily Hydro - Year on Year Comparison As you can see in the graph, this year is under the 5 year band (shaded gray area).  Over the weekend, flows pulled back even more to where the total generation on the grid averaged 10,400 MW across the 24 hour period.  This is similar to the average output we saw last September ... » read more
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