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Wednesday Jun 24, 2015   
This coming weekend is showing a heat wave moving across the Western part of the country as several cities will be staring at triple digit highs.  Starting in the Pacific Northwest, both Portland and Spokane are showing triple digits by Saturday, with the former at 102 degrees while the latter is 104 going to 108 degrees by Sunday.  These types of temperatures are well above normal for this time of year and without a doubt increase the overall demand in the region.  Moving slightly east, Boise is staring at similar temperatures as Spokane while Salt ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 23, 2015   
My father in law (Marv) was born and raised in Iowa and over the past 12 years, he always tells me if the corn in Iowa is knee high by the 4th of July you are going to have a pretty good year.  For this to happen, the weather has to cooperate as the corn needs plenty of rain along with the sunshine to allow it to grow. Yesterday, we we drove from Wisconsin down to Cedar Falls, Iowa to see good Ole Marv as he is turning 84 years old next week.  As we headed south, a massive Midwest thunderstorm moved through the southern part of Minnesota and the winds were ... » read more
Monday Jun 22, 2015   
After watching the US Open and the seeing brown tall rough, non-green fairways and the beautiful backdrop of the Puget Sound/Mt Rainer, one might think it never rains in the Great Northwest.  This year that has been the case as a high pressure ridge in the North Pacific and has treated us with above normal temperatures and little rain over the past 6 months.  During that time, EnergyGPS has published several reports and insights to how the 2015 hydro year was going to play out via our Pacific Northwest Hydro Package. With the lack of snow and above normal ... » read more
Friday Jun 19, 2015   
Yesterday’s weekly EIA storage number showed that natural gas injections for the US totaled 89 BCF for the week ending on June 12th, putting total storage at 2,433 BCF. This number serves as a good opportunity to look at what has been changing in the natural gas system and what’s potentially ahead in the upcoming weeks. First, the 89 BCF injection number posted yesterday represented a significant decline in the pace of injections from the previous week when injections had totaled 111 BCF. Nonetheless, injections managed to beat the 5-year average by 3 BCF ... » read more
Thursday Jun 18, 2015   
Over the past week, the ridge that has been sitting over the West Coast decided to move inland as the likes of Salt Lake City, Denver and Phoenix have all seen their respective daytime highs increase by 10-12 degrees.  For example, Salt Lake City is currently showing a high of 95 degrees for today and by Sunday triple digits are in the cards.  Down in Phoenix, it is just plain ole hot as the middle of the day is anywhere between 110-115 degrees with night time lows in the low 80's. Figure 1 | Phoenix Actual and Forecast Temperatures Such an increase in ... » read more
Wednesday Jun 17, 2015   
We, as a family, are going on our third year of owning a community garden plot where we grow tomatoes, eggplant, cucumbers and other simple things that taste good on a salad and or sliced up and placed on a bbq grill during the summer.  This year, one of the plot owners had this idea to put together an email distribution list for people willing to help out on watering the plots when owners are out of town.  Everyone seem to be finding the email channel useful since there were several email exchanges over the past few days.  When I opened the latest ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 16, 2015   
Walking into June, the story line was all about two words, they were El Nino which was being promoted as a warm West Coast and a mild Central/Eastern part of the country.  So far this month, the West Coast being warm has held true, but the Central/Eastern portion being mild has yet to materialize with last week's peak power demand increasing in some ISO's to levels seen in July and August.  For example, Ercot's peak demand topped the 60 GW mark on the 10th and 11th.  So far the month to date peak demand average has come in roughly 1,600 MW higher than ... » read more
Monday Jun 15, 2015   
Over the past few weeks, the two topics on the forefront as we head into summer were the health of the supply stack and El Nino.  The former's rate of return would have an impact on the overall power burns all else being equal.   As you can see in Figure 1 below, the nuclear fleet looks to be positioned pretty well at this time. Figure 1 | Nuclear MW's online - Year on Year The latter will impact the demand side of the equation.  So far, month to date, the weather in the East/Producing regions has been far from El Nino like as most major cities were ... » read more
Friday Jun 12, 2015   
With warmer weather moving through most of the country this past week, I thought it would be worthwile to take a look at how the renewable landscape has impacted the net demand across the ISO's and Pacific Northwest.  The two resources we will be focusing in are wind and solar, since they are the ones with the largest increased capacity over the past 5 years. Let's start our West with California since it's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is increasing the capacity of solar as they strive to meet their goal of 33% capacity by 2020.   Figure 1 | California ... » read more
Thursday Jun 11, 2015   
With the latest heat wave moving through the West Coast, demand across the Pacific Northwest and California jumped up quite a bit as Portland saw high temperatures in the mid 90's for both Sunday and Monday while Sacramento was in the triple digits (104 degrees) in the middle of the afternoon.  This type of heat led to the load profiles in each region to shift up to mid-summer like levels. Figure 1 | California Peak Load - Forecast vs Actual As you can see in the Figure 1, the actual peak demand came in much higher than the forecast.  In fact, it was so ... » read more
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