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| Thursday Dec 19, 2024 | |
| At EGPS, we spend a lot of time looking at ERCOT historical data. Usually only as far back as 2017 or so, maybe 2014, and very rarely earlier—with how fast the grid has been changing over the past decade, going back farther than a few years can start to have diminishing usefulness for making conjectures about the future. ERCOT has been the poster child for how renewable expansion can impact price formation and balancing within an ISO with the rapid growth that has taken place within the state. No part of ERCOT has been more heavily affected by renewables than the West Zone, and in the entire span of historical data we look at, at least one trend has been pretty reliable: on average, due to its relatively low demand and high renewable penetration, West Hub has the lowest ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 18, 2024 | |
| With the first official day of winter just three short days away, a lot of eyes are on the temperature forecasts. Whether it’s an ice storm in the Pacific Northwest, unprecedented freezing temperatures in Texas, or a blizzard blanketing the Northeast, cold events in winter can have huge impacts on energy markets. With natural gas needed for heating demand, grids find themselves needing more expensive fuel sources to meet increasing demand. In production areas, freeze-offs can lead to diminishing natural gas supply. Higher chances for equipment failure and outages can lead to scarcity events when power is needed the most. Here at EnergyGPS, we track areas that are expected to experience below-normal temperatures by scouring the forecasts for the tell-tale wave of blue. Alberta is one ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 17, 2024 | |
| Our Monthly Renewable Reports provide a comprehensive overview of the energy landscape across North American power markets, with a particular focus on the impact of renewable energy sources. Each month, the report analyzes the performance of renewable resources in various regions, highlighting their influence on grid operations, pricing, and overall system dynamics. By examining the latest trends, weather impacts, and generation patterns, the report offers valuable insights into the evolving role of renewables in the energy transition. In November, the renewable energy landscape across North American power markets saw various developments. In CAISO, wind output remained steady, but the shape of its hourly profile flattened. Solar generation shifted lower as the system transitioned ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 16, 2024 | |
| The past decade has seen a tight contest between SoCal and PGAE Citygate for the title of California’s highest priced natural gas hub. In the previous year, however, this once great contest looked more like Jake Paul v. Mike Tyson: structurally favoring one side and not very interesting to watch. But finally last week we had a comeback, with SoCal Citygate taking back the crown, at least for a few days, for the first time since February 2024. Figure 1 | SoCal Net Injections 7 Day Average (mmcf) When looking for a cause, the obvious cause is storage activity. California’s winter-to-date has been mild in both the north and south with both hubs having plenty of gas stored away and yet to taste the dire demands that winter can cause. The two have differed in their ability ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 13, 2024 | |
| Locked in fierce competition for the title of curtailment king, ERCOT and CAISO are raising the bar every month. So, following up to our recent note on CAISO “Too Much of a Good Thing”, this week we bring attention to ERCOT where we observe an acceleration in renewable curtailment this quarter. The sun is still shining, and the wind is blowing, but peak demand is down throughout Texas as summer heat is now far in the rear-view mirror. The net result is there are plenty of sad and unwanted MWh's in ERCOT looking for a home. Figure 1 below, taken from our December 2024 ERCOT Monthly Curtailment Dashboard, shows that solar curtailment in November nearly quadrupled from 59.6 GWh in 2023 to 209.6 GWh in 2024 while wind curtailment doubled from 289 GWh in 2023 ... » read more | |
| Thursday Dec 12, 2024 | |
| The Midwest is currently in the midst (with the Northeast following close behind, starting today) of the second stretch of frigid winter weather since the start of December. We can see the impact of the cold on electricity demand within PJM in the figure below, which plots daily peak load over the past month-and-a-half for the PJM system as a whole, PJM West, and PJM East. System load dipped prior to the second half of this week, falling below 94 GW over the weekend and sitting around 100 GW on Monday and Tuesday. Today the number is expected to reach 117 GW and climb to 118 GW tomorrow. Some of this is due to the colder weather, with temperatures down in the teens overnight in the Ohio Valley and in the 20s across the eastern portion of PJM. Figure 1 | PJM ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 11, 2024 | |
| Ever wondered just how much behind the meter solar there is in CAISO? With rooftop solar in California abundant and continuing to grow, it’s important to understand how much capacity is chewing through the midday demand. At EnergyGPS, we have a dashboard for that! The figure below is featured in our CAISO Behind the Meter dashboard. The yellow bars display monthly behind-the-meter solar capacity while the red bars display utility solar capacity. The two are combined in the blue bars to show just how much solar capacity is present in CAISO. The figure below only displays data through January 2024, but subscribers to our CAISO BTM dashboard received a figure updated through October 2024 in their inbox yesterday. If you’re interested in viewing the dashboard the next time ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 10, 2024 | |
| The western region of Canada experienced its first cold spell of the winter season in the last days of November through early December, as the season made its presence felt. A significant cold snap brought much-below-normal temperatures to Western Canada. With La Niña conditions in place, this winter is expected to be cooler than average in the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada, setting the stage for a season of heightened cold and wintry weather across the region. Starting on November 20th, overnight low temperatures across most areas of Western Canada dropped into the single digits, with daytime highs reaching only the upper teens. In the final week of November, negative overnight low temperatures were observed for a couple of days. This past November, Alberta had largely ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 9, 2024 | |
| Some stories are here one day and gone the next. An eclipse, a fire, a generation failure, our industry is full of exciting, one-time events. Other stories move more slowly and keep on giving. This is the case with CAISO’s intrastate transmissions. Late 2023 into early 2024 saw a big leap in CAISO’s solar and battery capacity. This has in turn upped the pressure on many of the grid’s weak points. In spring 2024, this development looked unprecedented and spectacular. But now with the year drawing to a close, transmission woes look not like a freak event but rather like a permanent fixture. Figure 1 | Marginal Cost of Congestion at SP15 and NP15 Our first picture shows CAISO’s reported marginal cost of congestion in SP15 and NP15. This highlights the driving ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 6, 2024 | |
| For more than three years the Mid-Columbia has been the premium electricity market in the United States. What was once known as the low-cost, hydro-based wholesale market came roaring to life in 2021. The factors contributing to the bullish run at the Mid-Columbia were multi-fold – (1) load growth from data centers and industrial demand, (2) coal retirements, and (3) extremely limited resource additions. The supply-demand balance gradually tightened, and then suddenly, the region was short. We saw Mid-Columbia cash prices begin to move higher in May of 2021 and reaching a peak in January 2024 when daily ICE prices breached $1,000 per MWh during the MLK Weekend Winter Storm of 2024. Just as the bull market in the Northwest was getting legs, the state of Washington enacted a carbon ... » read more | |