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| Thursday Oct 19, 2023 | |
| The EnergyGPS Renewable Monthly Report details the solar capture ratio for key regions that have seen growth over the years, to which we pointed out how the month of September 2023 stood out within the CAISO footprint. For example, the SP15 solar capture ratio plummeted from 86% in August down to 59% for the entire month of September. This is significantly lower than past years as well, with September 2022’s solar capture ratio at 87% and 90% in September of 2021. The changes to the CAISO grid that led to these changes are the subject of our latest Newsletter Special Report, “Capturing the Roller Coaster Ratio”. The figure below plots monthly CAISO solar capture ratio at NP15 and SP15 for the past three years. Not only was the September ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 18, 2023 | |
| If you’ve been checking our NRC Nuclear Plant Summary Dashboard in the last few weeks, you may have been scratching your head at this fall’s outages. We’re now more than halfway through the month of October and nuclear outages should be in full swing. On October 17th last year, total nuclear outages were at the second highest peak for the fall outage season and reached close to 21 GW. In 2021 this same day had close to 20 GW of nuclear outages. This year on October 17th, total US nuclear outages were less than 16 GW. That’s 4 - 5 GW of missing outages. In this blog, we’ll dig deep into the case of the missing outages. Figure 1 | Total Nuclear Plant Outages in Megawatts Year-on-Year (2018 – 2023) Factor #1 – Recent Retirements A couple ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 17, 2023 | |
| The volatility in the wind profile in SPP is present this week as Monday delivered auction clears that left the light load in the bottom portion of the natural gas supply stack while the heavy load send a price signal that displayed the marginal megawatts at the top of the same resource stack. This is not uncommon given the hourly profile is still dealing with an evening ramp peak while the wind output slid lower. Figure 1 | SPP Day-Ahead Auction Results Tuesday’s day-ahead results for SPP were substantially different as the light load took on the brunt of the wind increase thus driving the marginal megawatt out of the gas stack as the North dropped down into single digits while the South was barely holding on with a $10.88 settle. The heavy load saw it’s morning ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 16, 2023 | |
| Southern California always seems to have something to talk about as the film industry has Hollywood, the basketball world has the Lakers, and the college football scene has USC. In the energy sector, the region saw its identity change roughly eight years ago and counting as the Aliso Canyon storage field came across a faulty value that basically shut the system down for a period and now is watched by every agency and governing body with arm’s reach. At the end of August 2023, the CPUC voted to add another 27 BCF to the cavern that currently was sitting just under 41 BCF. The vote was protested by citizens in the community as they want the facility shut down for good and that was the view of the CPUS and Governor Newsom until the 2023 winter event that drove ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 13, 2023 | |
| Washington State’s Cap-and-Invest Program allows the Department of Ecology (Ecology) to provide allowances to electric utilities at no cost to help utilities manage the burden of the Program’s compliance cost. These no cost allowances can be used by utilities for compliance, or they may be sold. First, let’s get a grasp on the sheer number of allowances that are being allocated to utilities. Table 1 shows the allocation schedule of no-cost allowances for the utilities that are scheduled to be allocated the top 95% of allowances in total from 2024 – 2026. Table 1 | Electric Utility Allocation Schedule, 2024 – 2026, Covering 95% of Allowances Utilities have an incentive to decrease emissions because surplus can be sold. We have written a number of ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 12, 2023 | |
| September and October are transitional months for SPP when it comes to renewables, where the region is just starting to leave behind the summer and its sharp v-shaped generation profile with high production during the light load (reaching close to 15 GW near midnight most days) and dropping low in the early afternoon. This transition was part of the discussion in our latest Newsletter Renewable Monthly Report, “September 2023 – End of Summer Transitions”. As the season changes and moves closer to winter and spring the wind profile rises and flattens as increases to midday generation outpace the light load hours. September and October are an in-between stage where the profile still exhibits the v-shape but begins to shift higher. This was the case ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 11, 2023 | |
| Over the summer, the big story was the heat dome over Texas. High temperatures set records in many cities and triple digit temperatures became commonplace. We covered the heat in our most recent monthly, titled ‘End the Madness?’, as well as in our previous summer monthly reports. In the last few days, Texas temperatures have fallen below normal. The red in the forecast is now hovering over the western portion of the continent. From California to Canada, the West has been unusually warm this fall and the forecast indicates the warmth is here to stay. Figure 1 | Atmospheric G2 6-10 Day and 11-15 Day Forecast Last week the heat led to higher demand for CAISO as peak load was over 36 GW. With nuclear plants going offline for refueling and lowered hydro generation, the natural ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 10, 2023 | |
| The CAISO power market overlays itself on both PGAE and SoCal’s natural gas infrastructure where the molecules either show up from pipeline transport capacity or withdrawing from the storage facilities within each respective region during the hot summer months or in the heart of winter. This past August, the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) voted to allow another 27 BCF to be injected into Aliso Canyon’s facility. Starting in September, the system operators initiated anywhere from .280 to .375 BCF per day to be put into the cavern. Figure 1 | Aliso Canyon Storage Volume Trajectory – Daily Despite the newly minted demand within SoCal Gas’s system, the transport volume and other demand aided in keeping SoCal Citygate prices muted to ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 9, 2023 | |
| The month of October is delivering a little rally in the natural gas market as the prompt month has moved up from the $2.76 level seen during the last week of September to just under $3.40. The $0.64 uptick is quite impressive all things considered but with winter right around the corner. What we learned throughout the summer months on the power side gives concern when it comes to the natural gas market balancing act. Figure 1 | Prompt Month Nymex Settle vs. HDD/CDD Levels In the most recent Platinum Plus Monthly Recap report (‘End the Madness’), we made the rounds throughout the power grid to display the power in the burns and exposure of all markets during the evening ramp block now that solar generation is more present in markets like Alberta, California and ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 6, 2023 | |
| Long-time readers of this blog know that I, Tim Belden, coordinate an annual Aluminum Man competition held once per year somewhere in or near Oregon. This year was our 15th competition – 40 brave souls have participated over the years. The only energy-related content in this blog will be the names and scores of three people from “the biz” who participated in the competition. I’ll give a rundown of the games and results. This year’s event was held in BZ Corner, Washington about an hour and a half east of Portland. The axe, depicted above, is the trophy that is awarded each year with the name of the “winner” being engraved on a plaque and added to the handle of the axe. Let’s start with the basics. The event is called “Aluminum ... » read more | |