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Subscribe to our newsletter. Stay updated on commodity market trends, and special announcements.
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Special Research Reports
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West Power will be interesting as we move into the back half of May and look forward to June and all of Q3. This article takes an in-depth look at how the Renewable penetration has impacted curtailments, how the constraints at SoCal Citygate are impacting the market and the volatility that is in store once we get into the summer months.
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EnergyGPS teamed up with REsurety to analyze the effectiveness of P99 fixed quantity wind hedges. This free report models the hedge settlements for 38 individual wind generators in the ERCOT market, providing detailed economic and hedge efficacy metrics.
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The article runs through the key regions across all of North America and details the natural gas demand drivers and their impact to the daily balance.
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The hydro season is in its final three months of run-off season, this report details the system operations that are in play now that the weather is getting warmer and more snow is melting in the middle to upper elevation levels.
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We detail how the grid has gone from a high wind scenario and curtailments to lower output which results into higher power burns across the Lower 48.
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The featured article details the days leading up to the last weekend of April and how the forecasts were pointing to a high probability of Renewable curtailments.
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The monthly report takes a look at how the colder weather in April has impacted the supply/demand landscape across North America and what is in store for May 2018.
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The article breaks down the renewable landscape for the Pacific Northwest, CAISO, ERCOT and SPP as we head into the balance of Q2.
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The report breaks down the market fundamentals for both the power and natural gas markets around Southern California and their respective impacts to the SoCal Citygate cash price indices as we move through the rest of spring, summer and upcoming fall.
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The Alberta Power and Natural Gas market continue to make the headlines as former is seeing its supply stack change with the retirement of coal plants and increased wind capacity. The latter is tied to what is happening with the summer maintenance restrictions as well as the production growth within the province.
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Over the years, the Rockies region has been a focal point in the West. With the landscape changing across several adjoining regions, the Rockies is once going to be in the spotlight. In this report, we detail the short, mid and long term fundamental changes impacting the overall production supply in the Rockies.
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Featured Articles
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Monday May 21, 2018 |
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Purchasing items online is a common occurrence nowadays with the likes of Amazon Prime or any other competing delivery systems. If you are a person who does not do much of this, you probably still get a couple of things off the internet that will need to be paid for prior to shipping. There is still the over the phone purchases that have some sort of human communication to make sure the correct items are in your shopping cart prior to check out. Speaking of checking out, no matter what method you are comfortable with, the payment structure ultimately takes you to the question of what is your CVC or CVV code?
Figure 1 | Credit Card CVC/CVV Numbers
CVC stands for Credit Verification Code while CVV is the acronym for Credit Verification Value, both are synonymous ...
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Friday May 18, 2018 |
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REsurety and EnergyGPS recently released a report analyzing the efficacy of the “P99 wind hedge”, which is the most commonly used wind hedge structure, most frequently used in markets such as ERCOT and SPP. The report is free and can be downloaded here:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/104613d0ee66cc3dcc6a3820d/files/b98da7c4-4d93-45f1-a586-76df5ed905fa/The_P99_Hedge_That_Wasn_t_a_REsurety_and_Energy_GPS_White_Paper.pdf
For those readers not familiar with the standard transaction structures in the wind industry, there are two reasonably standard structures:
As-Generated (or unit contingent) sale at the project node or a market hub. The project generates and delivers the energy as it is produced to the buyer. This structure is most common for utility off-takes and corporate ...
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Thursday May 17, 2018 |
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AESO just can’t seem to catch a break as the grid was short on supply entering this week causing the LMP to jump to the price cap of $1000 for several peak hours on Monday and Tuesday. As we had mentioned in our newsletter last week, the amount of generation AESO is able to keep on the grid is key to avoiding these price spikes, but AESO is still trudging through maintenance season. With several large facilities offline at the beginning of the week, we can see that this event was no exception.
Figure 1 | AESO Hourly LMP May 14-15
Three major coal units were offline as we entered the week reducing coal capacity by 1.2 GWa. Sundance #4 was previously offline for maintenance, but Keephills #1 and Sundance #6 both went off at the beginning of the week which moved coal outages up ...
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Wednesday May 16, 2018 |
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The CPV Valley Energy Center is a newly built 670 MW natural gas fired generating station in Orange County, NY. The plant was scheduled to come online this summer and the construction of the facility itself seemed to be humming along without much delay. There was however considerable debate and delays regarding the 7.8 mile natural gas pipeline lateral that will run from the Millennium mainline to the plant.
Figure 1| Valley Lateral Pipeline Map
There were various environmental issues that needed to be resolved in order to complete the pipeline which appeared to delay the pipe construction long enough to potentially miss the expected 6/1/2018 startup date. However, multiple articles have been released that quote CPV, confirming the June start up, indicating ...
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Tuesday May 15, 2018 |
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Call it an annual case of bad timing but it seems like once in spring the country gets hit with an early bout of summer just as generation outages are peaking. This week the Northeast and Midwest are the unlucky ones with heat indexes pushing to the mid 90's. That is taking the on peak net load in PJM from 80 over 100 GWa this week. MISO is fairing similarly with the net load moving from 75 to 87 GWa. With many generators removed from the stack for outages, the regions are having to meet the jump in load with natural gas generation. Burns are already extraordinarily high versus last year's comparison due to the ongoing conversion of the coal fleet.
Figure 1 | PJM Net Load for April 24 to June 1 - Dotted Line is Forecast
The move up in load is usually reserved for a hot day in ...
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Monday May 14, 2018 |
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Each quarter the CAISO releases a report that summarizes the economic benefits of the energy imbalance market (EIM). On April 30th, the most recent release of the report was sent out, and can be found here. It concludes that this past Q1 there was $42 million in gross benefits, and that since the EIM's inception in November of 2014, there have been $330 million in benefits. While these numbers are wonderful, and certainly prove that the EIM is overall a good thing for its participants, one should question what is at the core of these benefits. To start off let's look at the last six days of EIM transmission flows, as seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1 | CAISO > PNW (AC) Flows (top) and CAISO > DSW Flows (bottom) - Negative Flows are Moving Out of ...
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Friday May 11, 2018 |
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CPUC's Green Book on Customer Choice: Looking for Solutions in All the Wrong Places?
On May 3, the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) released its highly anticipated report entitled “Customer Choice: An Evaluation of Regulatory Framework Options for an Evolving Electricity Market.” Dubbed the "Green Book," the draft report contains an in depth discussion of the issues faced by California as it simultaneously grapples with (1) the transformation of its energy stock reflecting its RPS and decarbonization targets and (2) increasing customer load migration to non-utility suppliers via customer choice. The Green Book is the culmination of a year-long, multi-agency proceeding, dubbed the California Customer Choice Project. CPUC Green Book staff have ...
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Thursday May 10, 2018 |
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All eyes were on Alberta at the beginning of April as prices soared into the triple digits. The jump in prices was a result of several factors acting in synergy to push AESO to its limits. Not only were temperatures more than 20 degrees below average, but spring had officially begun with baseload generating units coming offline for maintenance. Both Shepard (890 MW) and Genesee #2 (400 MW) were down for maintenance causing the grid to be 1.3 GWa shorter. Wind also fell below average during the period which pushed the grid closer to the edge, and the reduction in imports from Saskatchewan was the final straw as Alberta’s neighbor didn’t have any excess energy to send over. The marginal megawatt shifted over to BC, putting said imports on the margin.
Figure 1 | Calgary ...
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Wednesday May 9, 2018 |
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Over the years, the Pacific Northwest entities in the power sector have figured out how to best keep the wind in the region from being curtailed. Some of this is tied to moving power from the Pacific Northwest up into Canada while two other elements have direct ties to turning off thermal generation or reducing the output from the lone nuclear facility known as Columbia Generating station. The final piece of the puzzle goes into the hydro system and how system operators handle the spill at each facility. This becomes tricky as fish spill season is in play and the Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) levels are being monitored closely.
Figure 1 | Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) Levels - Daily
The table in Figure 1 illustrates the daily TDG levels at key dams along the Lower ...
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Tuesday May 8, 2018 |
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As we start to work out way through the work week, it is sometimes nice to see what is going on in the real-time market as wind generation can wreak havoc depending on if it is coming in above/below the expected forecast. In previous newsletters, we have discussed the increased wind capacity throughout the Lower 48, specifically SPP and ERCOT. In a newsletter article, we detailed how curtailments played out at the end of April and early part of May as well.
Figure 1 | Year Wind Cumulative Max Generation - SPP and ERCOT
The top pane is SPP's cumulative yearly max generation output on the grid while the bottom pane represents ERCOT. If you look at SPP, the last two years are identical as there was a big uptick in December 2017 as a new transmission line was in play that ...
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