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Webinar Series
Video seminars discussing issues in Power and Natural Gas markets.
Special Research Reports
In-depth analysis on the most significant developments in the energy space.
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Saturday Nov 16, 2019 |
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A battery can sell three types of products: resource adequacy (RA), ancillary services , and energy. RA revenue is a function of the capacity market rules (e.g., size of battery and duration), and is generally procured on a monthly or annual basis. As such, RA value is not directly impacted by short term energy and ancillary prices or dispatch. Ancillary services, especially regulating reserves, are currently profitable, but the market for them is very small compared to the size of the energy market. In the CAISO, for example, the current regulating reserve market is about 300 MW of “reg up” and 300 MW of “reg down.” Historically, the regulating reserve market was served by flexible hydro and natural gas.
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Saturday Oct 12, 2019 |
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This past January, ERCOT implemented the first part of scarcity price policy revisions from the Public Utility Commission of Texas. These changes, affecting the Operating Reserve Demand Curve adder (ORDC), were set to take place in two phases: at the beginning of 2019 and 2020. This past April, EGPS discussed the proposed first change and how it might affect ERCOT pricing. Now, at the end of the summer, it’s time to look ahead at the upcoming second change. This article presents an analysis where the frequency and level of ORDC adders is calculated using defined adjustments. We compute expected adjustments based on the known change to the ORDC adder coming March 2020 (Phase 2 adder) as well as some expected change to the net resource mix.....
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Friday Oct 4, 2019 |
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The ‘Sumas Story’ started years ago when cold winter days in the Pacific Northwest had to compete with Northeast winter demand as AECO was the marginal molecule. This created a lively market that saw both Sumas and AGT cash gas prices shoot through the moon. As the grid was going through its evolution of pipeline expansions (REX) and on-shore production, the leverage of AECO diminished to a point that Sumas went to the wayside while AGT was still privy to the winter price spikes. Almost a year ago to the day of writing this report, the Pacific Northwest got a jolt (no pun intended) as the 36 inch Enbridge pipeline near Shelley, BC exploded with a ball of fire that was seen for miles......
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Thursday May 16, 2019 |
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EnergyGPS slides from the "Third Annual Northwest Wholesale Power Markets: Transition in Progress" conference by Newsdata LLC and CJB Energy. We explore the power demand, supply, and price conditions in the Pacific Northwest and California markets.
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When it comes to Carbon Markets in the region, the Washington State had an initiative on the ballot a couple of years ago that had some traction but did not get over 50% allocated yes votes it needed to pass. Since that time, the groups that support a Carbon Market in the Pacific Northwest, specifically Washington, have put together another proposal that is known as Initiative 1631 and it is on the upcoming ballet on November 6th , 2018.
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Daily Newsletter
A daily brief covering variety of energy topics.
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Friday Nov 15, 2019 |
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Last week we framed the battery question in terms of dollars per MWh that would have to be earned in order to make the math work. Today's blog highlights the valuation techniques and results of battery optimization, whereas the EnergyGPS Special Report, titled 'Battery Modeling Using the TB4' ...
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Thursday Nov 14, 2019 |
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In football, there are a handful of teams that always seem to walk into the month of November with this notion of not winning a game all season. The Miami Dolphins came to mind in late October as they were actually winless in their first 7 games but have rallied to win 2 in a row. The ...
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Wednesday Nov 13, 2019 |
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Over the past few weeks, there has been a lot of chatter about the wildfires in California and the rolling blackout plan implemented by PGAE to mitigate equipment risk that has been deemed the cause of fires in previous years. As part of the EnergyGPS West Power and Natural Gas product ...
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Tuesday Nov 12, 2019 |
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Over the past three weeks we have noticed a material change in the Alberta natural gas demand. This is highly unusual. Thanks to the build out in oil sands and a growing population the province has been booming for decades. In some years we have seen as much as a 1 BCF per day gain in the ...
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Friday Nov 8, 2019 |
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If my computer screen was a television, you’d think that I have been binge watching the Storage Channel! You know, that new channel that everyone is talking about that includes stand-alone battery storage, solar plus storage, pump storage hydro, and even pushing trains uphill and harnessing ...
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Thursday Nov 7, 2019 |
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Over the past few weeks, the conversation around renewables has picked up in both the West and in SPP/ERCOT where the former is tied to the lack of output during the cold period in the Pacific Northwest and Santa Anna winds in California. The latter continues to be around how much more ...
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Wednesday Nov 6, 2019 |
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As we start to move into the heart of winter, I thought it would be worthwhile to step back and take a look at how the renewable profiles in ERCOT are shaking out in Q4. As we have documented in other blogs, articles and monthly reports, ERCOT is the front-runner when it comes to wind ...
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Tuesday Nov 5, 2019 |
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The Lower 48 natural gas production has recently moved to a new high of 95.4 BCF. That is up 6.6 BCF from last year with a good portion of the gains coming as a by product of the crude production stream in the Permian Basin. Because the infrastructure in the Permian is mainly dedicated to the crude ...
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Monday Nov 4, 2019 |
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For some time now, we have been discussing the power demand profile within CAISO's footprint as the renewable mandate over the years has netted what we consider a double hump profile. The double hump occurs since most of the new renewable capacity comes in the form of both behind the meter ...
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Friday Nov 1, 2019 |
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If you have been in the electricity sector for some time, there are several revolving concepts and topics that always seem to pop up for discussion and/or debate depending on the time of year or circumstances around a specific market. One of those topics is the 'Capacity Market' within each ...
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Newsletter Power and Gas Articles
| Article | Mini Arctic Blast |
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| Report | Battery Modeling using the TB4 |
Purchase
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| Report | Shouldering the Load |
Purchase
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| Monthly | Trick or Treating in the Weeds |
Purchase
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| Article | Some PJM Pain for Some Gain |
Purchase
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| Article | Google Renewable Auction |
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| Article | Zooming Out on US Renewables |
Purchase
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| Report | ERCOT's Push and Pull |
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| Article | The Constraint of the Day |
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| Article | PacificParadigm |
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| Monthly | Regional Sandboxes |
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| Report | The Sumas Story |
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| Article | Headed for retirement...CAISO |
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| Article | Upcoming Flex Needed in the West |
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| Article | What will the grid look like....? |
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| Monthly | Everything is big in Texas |
Purchase
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| Article | Back to School in the West |
Purchase
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| Article | The Battery Evolution |
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| Article | ERCOT Renewables - Looking For... |
Purchase
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| Article | Profit Shaping - ERCOT Renewables |
Purchase
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| Article | Partly Cloudy with a chance of? |
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| Monthly | Three Days in ERCOT |
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| Article | Summer Chill |
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| Article | Brew Fest |
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| Article | SoCal Gas Summer Fundamentals |
Purchase
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| Article | Cap and Trade Tightness? |
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| Article | The Storage Story - Chapter 2 |
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| Article | Officially Summer? |
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| Article | The Battery Storage Story |
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| Monthly | Renewed Interest in the Renewa... |
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| Article | Champion of the Energy Sector |
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| Article | ERCOT's Reliability Percentages |
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| Monthly | Flowers in May? |
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| Article | Hydro doing these days? |
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| Article | California's Summer Balance |
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| Article | Opportunity Comes in Many Forms |
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| Article | Renewable CCA |
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| Article | The Pick Is In..... |
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| Article | Changes in ERCOT Scarcity Pricing |
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| Monthly | Swinging for the Fence |
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| Article | The Waha Squeeze Play |
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| Article | Seriously, how do batteries ma... |
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| Article | The Power of Price in the Burns |
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| Article | Power On...... |
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| Report | End of Winter Season - NG Balance |
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| Article | The Storage (Battery) Story |
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| Monthly | The Pacific Northwest Acronym ... |
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| Article | The New EIM Market |
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| Article | The Hydro Bed |
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| Article | Alberta's Growing Demand |
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| Report | Ruby or Not Ruby? |
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| Article | The Pomona Battery |
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| Monthly | Whacky Weather and Wind |
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| Article | Timing Is Everything |
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| Article | Natural Gas Balancing Act |
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| Article | Deep Purple - Arctic Blast |
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| Article | Not Any More!!!!! |
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| Article | Significance of December 27th,... |
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| Monthly | Tis the Season |
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| Article | California - What a Year???!!! |
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| Article | West Returning to the Danger Z... |
Purchase
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| Article | The 'Eyes of Texas' on Wind |
Purchase
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| Monthly | 'Fro-Vember' |
Purchase
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| Article | Trend is your Friend |
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| Report | MISO’s Excess/Deficient Deviati... |
Purchase
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| Article | Sumas heading into Xmas |
Purchase
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| Article | Summer SoCal in November and B... |
Purchase
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| Article | Centralized Capacity Market De... |
Purchase
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| Monthly | The Battle Royale |
Purchase
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| Article | Coal Retirements and Natural G... |
Purchase
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| Article | Mother Nature, did you see tha... |
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| Article | SOS - Sumas Over SoCal |
Purchase
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| Article | The West Playground |
Purchase
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| Monthly | Hunting for Red October |
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| Article | The 2017-2018 Water Year in a ... |
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| Article | The Severity of Florence |
Purchase
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| Article | Two Discussion Points Around S... |
Purchase
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| Article | US Open Heat Event |
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| Monthly | Two out of Three Completed |
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| Article | Now there are Two!!! |
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| Article | A Breath Of Fresh Air |
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| Article | The Motion |
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| Article | Early August 2018 |
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| Article | Winners and Losers Tied to the... |
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| Monthly | Is the Best Pitch a Heater , C... |
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| Article | The Dog Days of Summer |
Purchase
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| Article | Hear That Music? |
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| Article | Powering the Gas Markets in th... |
Purchase
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| Article | LeHeat in LA |
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| Article | Heat of the Moment |
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| Article | ERCOT, A Healthy Supply Stack.... |
Purchase
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| Monthly | A Quarter for Your Thoughts |
Purchase
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| Article | PJM's Capacity Performance Obl... |
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| Article | ERCOT Market Report |
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| Article | ERCOT's Price Spike |
Purchase
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| Article | Weather or Hot (Cold) |
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| Monthly | Summer Right Around the Corner |
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| Article | Play Me Some Mountain Music |
Purchase
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| Article | The Heat is On (the ERCOT Stack) |
Purchase
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| Article | What is your CCV code West Power? |
Purchase
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| Article | Basis of Natural Gas's Existence |
Purchase
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| Article | Tensions Rising in Southern Ca... |
Purchase
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| Article | Welcome Back BPA Curtailments |
Purchase
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| Article | Wind, Where Have You Gone? |
Purchase
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| Article | MayDay - Curtailments |
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| Monthly | April Cold Brings May? |
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| Article | A Look at the Renewable Landscape |
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| Article | The 'basis' of SoCal Citygate'... |
Purchase
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| Article | Alberta Power's Mid-Month Update |
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| Article | Expect the Unexpected - SPP Wi... |
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| Article | Virtual Tour with Mother Nature |
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| Article | The Fools Fool |
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| Monthly | April Fooling |
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| Article | The CAISO's Big Three |
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| Article | That Pesky Groundhog!!! |
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| Article | Track the Tracker |
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| Monthly | A Tale of Two Cities..... |
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| Article | Central Vertical Corridor |
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| Article | Sneak Preview of CAISO Curtail... |
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| Article | Storage 1,2,3 |
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| Article | Glimpse of what is to come in ... |
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| Monthly | Back to Where We Belong??? |
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| Article | Armageddon in February Across ... |
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| Article | Digging in the South Central R... |
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| Article | What is going on with Power Burns |
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| Monthly | SoCal Citygate Hype??. |
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| Monthly | Constraints Everywhere?.. |
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| Monthly | I Just Cleaned This Mess! |
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| Article | Keeping an Eye on the Fundamen... |
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| Monthly | The Fall Classic |
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| Monthly | A Dry/Warm October |
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| Article | AECO, the Red October |
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| Article | SCEeeee What is Happening with... |
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| Article | Snap, Crackle and Pop |
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| Article | Heated Curtailments |
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| Article | What Becomes of the CAISO Supp... |
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| Article | AECO, watching out below!! |
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| Monthly | Storm Chaser |
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| Monthly | H(arvey), I(rma), J??? |
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| Monthly | Blink |
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| Monthly | Cash is King |
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| Monthly | Texas Blowhard |
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| Monthly | Wagon Queen Family Truckster |
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| Monthly | May Flowers? |
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| Monthly | Convicted |
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| Monthly | The Dog Days of Winter |
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| Monthly | Cold meet Precipitation |
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| Monthly | Spread It On! |
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| Monthly | Emperor's New Clothes |
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| Monthly | The ICE in the Dog Bowl |
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| Article | What have we learned from Alis... |
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