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| Monday Oct 13, 2025 | |
| Over the past decade, LNG conversation has taken a stronghold in the natural gas sector. As it stands currently, the latest Lower 48 facility addition has been Plaquemines while North America is watching what is going on in Western Canada as LNG Canada has started the process of bringing on its second train. Figure 1 | Plaquemines LNG Natural Gas Nominations – Daily and Year on Year Comparison The additions listed above place the LNG component as the largest growth area in the natural gas space where the weekend saw the Lower 48 tap the 16.6 BCF level while Cove Point (.7 BCF/d) is offline due to its annual maintenance. Sabine is the oldest on the fleet tied to the Gulf Coast but it has increased its offtake over the past few weeks as the recent days fell in the 4.6 to 4.7 BCF/d ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 10, 2025 | |
| On Tuesday Energy GPS will be hosting a webinar, titled 'Kicking off the 2026 Water Year'. It is free to register at this link. Among the many topics we may touch upon is the potential impact of La Nina conditions on volume runoff in the Columbiar River Basin. On the second Thursday of each month the Climate Prediction Center publishes an updated El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index value. A negative value indicates cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and stronger than normal easterly winds. This is known as a La Nina condition. There is a significant (although far from perfect!) relationship between La Nina conditions and weather in the western United States. In particular, La Nina conditions are correlated with higher than ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 9, 2025 | |
| Our blog yesterday touched on the current market conditions in the West, prompting increased renewable curtailments in CAISO over the weekend. These curtailments were tied to a combination of moderating temperatures within the state along with very strong solar potential generation hitting the grid, leading to a middle of the day oversupply. Generation can get caught in pockets of congestion without sufficient demand in the region for the supply and insufficient transmission capacity to get the MW to where they need to go. CAISO year-to-date curtailments have been at record levels for the entirety of the year so far, and last during the last month separated even farther from previous years. During the month of September, CAISO added 156 GWh of solar cuts, compared ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 8, 2025 | |
| The market conditions out West presented renewable curtailments over the weekend as temperatures were moderating, thus bringing down the net load while potential solar was tapping the 22 GW mark at its peak. Figure 1 | CAISO Solar Potential Profile – Solar Hours The graph above displays the past seven days of potential solar output, which is made up of actual megawatts hitting the grid (gray bars) and how much was curtailed (orange/blue bars). What is clear is the 4th was the day of reckoning as the solar block of hours averaged roughly 4 GW of curtailments with the highest hour displaying 5.8 GW. The curtailment is a strong indicator of some sort of congestion, especially if the curtailments show up in the local bucket. Leading up to the 4th, the day-ahead auction clears ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 7, 2025 | |
| The natural gas market is going through its seasonal transition phase as summer dynamics fade, and winter preparation begins as highlighted in our latest special report focusing on Alberta’s gas market. Storage levels are now in sharp focus, with inventories nearing capacity and influencing price sentiment. As October marks the end of the injection season, the timing of colder temperatures will be critical in shaping early-winter dynamics. Warmer-than-normal weather across Alberta and British Columbia is currently keeping demand modest, with only brief temperature dips offering limited heating demand support. Figure 1 | AECO Weather Forecast, October 6-October 20 – AG2 Trader On the supply front, Alberta has seen volatility through the fall as production adjusted to pipeline ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 6, 2025 | |
| The fall season brings many changes to power and natural gas markets. One such change comes to the West’s wind generation. Although not typically the strongest period for wind generation, it can be the most volatile. Santa Ana winds are terrifying example, where pressure differences can cause an explosion of downslope winds westbound into SoCal. We can also see strong weather systems over the Pacific that hit the coast from the west. It is not unusual to see output like what is shown in the next two figures, with near-zero generation punctuated by seemingly random bursts of MWs. Figure 1 | BPA Wind Forecast (EGPS), (MW) Our first figure comes from our BPA Wind Generation Forecast. This chart shows actual BPA wind generation (blue) and the EGPS forecast for past and upcoming days ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 3, 2025 | |
| So far this fall (and the preceding summer), temperatures in ERCOT have remained largely normal—not cool, but not especially hot. However, despite the lack of extreme weather, demand has been robust. Figure 1 | ERCOT HL Demand by Houston Temperature, Sep – Nov, 2023 – 2025 The figure above plots ERCOT HLH average demand against Houston temperature for weekdays during September, October, and November, this year and the past two years; each dot represents a day. This year (blue) immediately stands out. The past two years had relatively similar demand at a given temperature level (2023's extreme high temperatures are visible as it has the datapoints furthest to the right), but in contrast, this year has had markedly higher demand at every temperature shown. Another lens ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 2, 2025 | |
| The 4th quarter of 2025 has only just begun, but it already feels like fall has arrived in the Pacific Northwest. Each day waking up the morning air is feeling crisp and Mother Nature has delivered some of Portland’s signature rain this week after a drier than average September along the I-5 corridor. Temperatures are still moderate but are expected to cool significantly throughout the broader Pacific Northwest region over the next five days, including producing what would be the first freezing temperatures of the quarter overnight this Sunday in western Montana as well as Southern Oregon in Klamath Falls. Figure 1 | West Hourly Load by Market – Last 7 Days and Next 7 Days Forecast As the temperatures sink lower, the Northwest is expected to see a ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 30, 2025 | |
| Recently, we’ve discussed how September and October are often volatile months for the SPP market. Seasonal weather patterns, combined with transmission constraints since the maintenance season is here, create conditions where congestion between the North and South hubs tends to intensify. Wind generation (often robust during the shoulder season) can further complicate conditions. More megawatts seek to move where energy is needed just as transmission capacity is limited. Despite the official arrival of fall, late-summer warmth is persisting, with forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures across the region. Figure 1 | SPP Weather Forecast, AG2 Trader Despite mild weather, demand has been stronger this year than in 2023 or 2024. Figure 2 plots average temperatures versus ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 29, 2025 | |
| In summer, power burns stand out as the decisive factor in producing tight gas markets. As we move into fall, the focus shifts from power burns to maintenance schedules. Although outright demand is low, frequent interruptions to supply can easily spark elevated prices. This is especially true with winter just around the corner, and a desire to store away molecules in preparation. Figure 1 | GTN Pipeline Capacity Dashboard (BCF) Our first figure shows the latest maintenance schedule (green), the previous maintenance schedule (red) and flows (blue) for two key points on the GTN pipeline. Kingsgate, on the US/Canada border has an off-and-on schedule with frequent swings between supply squeezes and supply gluts. When flows are unconstrained, we see a few 100 MMcf more of cheap, Canadian gas ... » read more | |