CONSULTING
Custom energy solutions driven by 30+ years of real-world experience
The energy markets are complex and ever changing. Let us guide you to clarity with expert, unbiased insights that are tailored to your goals and driven by 30+ years of practical trading experience. Allowing you to move forward with:
We’ve helped over 250+ clients with our specialization in:
Evaluating an energy asset for potential investment
When evaluating an asset for investment, there are certain questions you need to ask in order to make an informed decision.
For example:
- What are the expected margins over time?
- What is the potential variability across your investment horizon?
- Are the margins included in the financial model realistic and attainable?
- Were the off-take agreements modeled correctly?
- What are the strategic headwinds and tailwinds associated with the asset?
Through extensive modeling capabilities, we can get you clear and concise answers to all of the above and more. We can also sift through multiple expert opinions and help you develop your own independent view that feels clear and unbiased to you and your stakeholders.
Services:
- Due diligence support during mergers & acquisitions
- Revenue & margin estimates using fundamental or market-based price curves
- Risk analysis using Monte Carlo and other stochastic modeling techniques
- Evaluation of commercial off-take agreements
- Wholesale electricity transaction structuring
Ideal for
- Private equity funds
- IPPs
- Providers of tax equity and debt
Optimize an existing electricity asset
Energy markets can be dangerous, especially if you’re not as familiar with the ever-evolving terrain.
Whether you want to chart a better path forward, become more active in the short-term markets, or get an independent review of your current activities, our team of experts can help.
Since the 1990s, we’ve seen it all – bull markets, bear markets, the thrill of victory, and the agony of defeat. We don’t just bring sophisticated models to the project, we also bring humility, an open mind, and 30+ years of first-hand experience navigating these treacherous markets.
Electricity markets charge tuition to the uninitiated. Let us help you steer clear of the pitfalls and find the opportunity you are seeking.
Services:
- Asset optimization & bidding strategy
- Development of risk management policies and guidelines
- Establish appropriate risk limits
- Development reporting and benchmarking of performance
- Evaluate trading activities and compliance with contractual obligations and market rules
- Policy analysis & support
Ideal for
- Owners of existing power asset with merchant exposure
- Providers of tax equity and debt
Strategic & tactical advice during contract negotiations
When signing long-term contracts, it’s important to get all the “plumbing” right, from defining economic risks and benefits between buyer and seller to performance guarantees and penalties.
When the future turns out to be different than expected, poorly plumbed contracts start to leak – and in extreme circumstances, the pipes may burst.
Our team has worked on hundreds of energy off-take agreements and have seen everything from the first trading credit implosion in the late 1990s to wholesale price spikes starting with the Western Energy Crisis in 2001 and with Winter Storm Uri in 2021. We’ve also worked for buyers and sellers, giving us a unique perspective into what the “other side” may be willing to accept.
We’ll treat your contract like it’s ours, ensuring the deal modeled in the spreadsheet matches the deal defined in the contract. A single word can either cost or save you millions of dollars – let our expertise protect your investment and propel it toward prosperity.
Services:
- PPA review as part of due diligence process
- Contract negotiation support
- Ensure PPA language reflects market rules
- Ensure risks are appropriately parsed via contract
- Highlight risks and mitigants associated with PPA language
- Help clients craft rigorous, thoughtful contracts
Ideal for
- IPPs
- Corporate buyers
- Anyone involved in a commercial power transaction
Navigate changing energy policies
Each electricity product – energy, ancillary services, and capacity – has its own market rules.
While these technical, wonky policies can be difficult to decipher, they determine wholesale market prices and define the commercial opportunities available, so tracking and understanding them is critical to your success.
Our team has been living and breathing these market policies for as long as wholesale markets have been around. We have both a broad and deep understanding of the tactical and strategic nexus between market design, as well as the commercial opportunities, including:
- Managing logistics & scheduling in Northeastern markets
- How wind forecasts factor into the 5-minute dispatch process in MISO
- The importance of ORDC policies in Texas
- Understanding the PJM capacity markets
- Market power mitigation & must offer obligations in CAISO
- Scheduling & logistics in the de-centralized WECC markets
Let us bring you the expertise you need to successfully navigate commercial opportunities in all US power markets.
Services:
- Education about wholesale market policies and structure
- Assistance with PPA negotiation to ensure provisions of PPA are consistent with market rules
- Expert witness support for disputes involving scheduling and dispatch
- Summary reports explaining tariff provisions (which will impact asset)
- Expert support when financing projects
- Explaining logistics & operations to potential investors
- Education & modeling associated with WECC transactions outside of CAISO
Ideal for
- Project developers
- Renewable IPPS
- Firms with contract disputes
Develop & understand long-term electricity price forecasts
Most shops use two types of long-term price discovery: traded market curves (as published by trading platforms such as the Intercontinental Exchange) and fundamental market curves (generated through a production cost modeling process).
While many shops extol the virtues of one model over the other, we see the merit and blindspots in both. Models are great for insights, but can be biased. Market trends are helpful, but not always accurate.
At Energy GPS, we use our own Aurora-based model which combines transparent inputs, clear outcomes, and a healthy dose of market reality to arrive at a thoughtful set of forward curves that can be used for long-term valuation purposes.
Services:
- Long term Production Cost Model forecasting for entire WECC
- Vetting long-term price curves provided by other consultants or included in third party models
- Prepare market-based forward curves for a particular asset or hub
- Vetting congestion studies
Ideal for
- Utility companies
- IPPs
- Private equity funds
- Corporate buyers
Develop robust risk management plans & practices
There are a wide range of alternatives to consider when establishing risk policies and infrastructure. For example: How can you phase in your risk infrastructure as the business scales? Should you purchase third-party software or build your own? How should the risk committee function?
Our team has been wrestling with these questions since the mid-1990s. We understand the scale and scope of enterprise risk management systems. We also understand that limited amounts of wholesale risk may not require the expense of enterprise software solutions and staff.
Let us ease you into the risk business by walking you through the process of establishing risk plans and position limits, advising on the structure and responsibilities of the risk committee, and providing advice as to when a DIY solution may be sufficient and when you should consider scaling the risk operation.
Services:
- Develop corporate risk management documents
- Develop corporate risk energy plan
- Advise on division of responsibilities and risk limits
- Advise on required staffing needs and expertise
- Advise on developing or licensing energy risk models
Ideal for
- Renewable IPPS
- Corporate buyers
- Private equity investors
Expand internal knowledge & expertise
Whether you’re new to the energy industry, need a refresher, or want to learn something specific, Energy GPS has you covered.
As veterans who’ve been active in the energy markets since the early 90s, we have decades of first-hand experience and knowledge across just about every energy topic, including:
- Electricity market history
- Energy market policy & regulatory structure
- Wholesale electricity training basics
- Centralized electricity market
- Risk modeling
- Battery storage
- And more
Let us tailor a learning experience that focuses on the topics, markets, regions, and assets that are most relevant to you and your team.
Ensure every attendee gets some level of value by working with us to create a “participant profile” based on our discussions and research done by our team. The goal is to have at least 50% of your team walk away feeling like they significantly boosted their knowledge and understanding across the key areas of focus.
To encourage organic interaction and deeper learning, all presentations are live and in person (typically spread out over 1-2 days). Short Zoom sessions can also be incorporated, as needed.
Services:
- Interactive & hands-on
- Custom presentation that’s tailored to your team’s needs
- Training materials created & presented by EGPS co-founder, Tim Belden
Ideal for
- Developers
- IPPS
- Corporate buyers
Best-in-class models blended with decades of real-world expertise
To help our clients make sense of uncertainty and understand the range of potential outcomes, we rely on a variety of models that can be tailored to your unique situation.
While we use the same best-in-class models used by top banks and corporations, we also bring 30+ years of practical, real-world trading experience that most shops cannot replicate.
This deep understanding and practical experience allows us to develop robust, high-quality models that are simple, transparent, easy to use, and most importantly, easy to understand.
Why clients come back to us again & again:
30+ years of active involvement in the energy markets
As energy traders, we can supply you with real-time, market-driven insights that are grounded in decades of real-world experience (not just theory or data).
Clear, actionable insights that are easy to understand
Rather than hiding behind complicated words and data, we focus on the most important key takeaways and communicate them in simple & digestible ways.
Unbiased & flexible recommendations
Rather than convince you of a specific answer, we explore the full range of possibilities so you can select the option that’s right for you.
Full transparency around data, models & processes
We show our work, providing full access to our models and data so you can trust and verify the quality and accuracy of our analysis.
Reliable access to senior-level expertise
Whether you have a specific question or just need expert guidance, Enterprise clients can always reach a senior-member of our team via phone, text, or email.
The most current advice in a constantly changing industry
Feel confident knowing we’re at the forefront of the energy industry and are ready to advise you on the most pertinent market changes and trends.
Trusted by 250+ clients
coast to coast, across the U.S.
Explore some of our most recent projects to learn more about the types of businesses we serve and our areas of expertise.
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