EnergyGPS is a fundamentals analysis firm with two main goals:
- Understand how each component in a region or as a whole is generated. We like to think of this as building mental muscles that can be used in the market at a later time.
- Articulate how we are looking at a specific market so that it gets the client to think about their position/viewpoint more. We like to think of this as knowing where we stand as there are times when our views are in opposition of the client and/or the market.
Enterprise Product Overview
Daily Cash/Balance of the Month Fundamentals – The EnergyGPS Daily reports details the market fundamentals that are behind the overall implied heat rates in both the day-ahead and real-time markets.
Canada / Mexico
- Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO)
- Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO)
- ISO New England (ISO-NE)
- New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)
- Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM)
- Southwest Power Pool (SPP)
- Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
- Pacific Northwest (PNW)
- California Independent System Operator (CAISO)
- Desert Southwest (DSW)
Term Outlook – Our outlook into the futures is predicated off of understanding how each market operates when it comes to finding the supply that is needed to balance the overall demand in a specific region. Over the years, part of this understanding comes from knowing how the supply stack is changing as each region has introduced some form of renewable energy as well as having coal units retire. At the end of the day, we spend a lot of time focusing on the net load numbers as it begins to tell us how much coal and/or natural gas generation is being consumed on the grid. From such analysis, one can determine how the power grids are changing from month to month and year on year. We also spend a large amount of time dissecting the Pacific Northwest/California hydro system as the water year changes each season.
US Supply/Demand Balance – Daily/Weekly – The Lower 48 natural gas landscape continues to change over the years with production moving on-shore and the introduction of renewables on the power side keeps things interesting. For our daily balance, we scrape each pipeline and map each point to either of the following components: production, rescom, industrial, power burns, imports/(exports) and LNG facilities taking gas off the grid. The sample is uplifted using methodology that gives us a good prediction of how much gas is either being taken out of the ground or put into storage. Each daily number is ultimately rolled up into an EIA week compared to an internal regression storage model. Each outcome is then put up against what is reported by EIA each week when they release their natural gas storage number.
US Supply/Demand Balance – Forecast – The daily/weekly natural gas components are used as a starting point to predict how the grid will operate as we move further out into the future.
Regional Coverage – Beside analyzing the Lower 48 as a whole, we take the time to dive into the regional natural gas fundamentals on a daily basis.
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