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| Monday Oct 3, 2016 | |
| Looking back at the month of September, California's solar profile shifted down over the course of the month with the last two weeks seeing two major dips. Figure 1 | Year on Year California Solar Comparison - Daily The first dip was due to unseasonable cloud over Southern California and the Desert Southwest that lasted a couple of days. The second shift down was due to unplanned maintenance and economic curtailment due to regional congestion. Regardless of the reason, the monthly average shifted down just over 200 MWa across the heavy load hours. Figure ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 30, 2016 | |
| One of my favorite things to read each year is JP Morgan’s annual energy outlook. This year’s outlook came out over the summer and is called “Sentimental Journey - The long, winding road to a renewable energy future.” I found it as I was perusing Vaclav Smil’s web page. http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/06-15-2016-Sentimental-Journey_PB-Print.pdf The report is worth reading from cover to cover. It addresses issues such as (1) the long term commodity cycle, (2) the slow evolution of electric vehicles, (3) New York state’s ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 29, 2016 | |
| This past month has been one of the hottest September's on record as the Northeast saw record heat for the first three weeks of the month before cooling off this past week. Figure 1 |NYISO Peak Load Forecast Moving to the South Central and Southeast portions of the country, Mother Nature gave us more of the same as Dallas was approaching triple digits last week while Houston was hot and humid (similar to summer). As a result, the grid saw slightly more wind month to date compared to last month but it was still quite a bit lower than what we saw in July ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 28, 2016 | |
| Since April of this year, scheduled maintenance on the Algonquin Pipeline has derated the operational capacity through the Stoney Point compressor station. As a result, flows from the Marcellus basin into New England have been limited which increases our reliance on imports from Canada in order to meet strong power demand. In Figure 1, we have ISONE Peak Load on the X-axis (GWs) and Canadian gas imports through the Iroquois pipeline on the Y-axis (MMCF). The color correlates to the AGT basis spread with green representing and AGT basis ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 27, 2016 | |
| Since the middle of last week there have been a number of natural gas production changes across the Lower 48 states. Going back to last Wednesday, there has been a total drop of .75 BCF. While some areas have increased volumes, the decrease in the East, Gulf and Rockies has amounted to a total reduction of 1.1 BCF. Figure 1 | North American Natural Gas Production Last weeks outages were centered around the Rockies with maintenance on both Kern and CIG pipelines. The Opal and Enterprise processing facilities on Kern River Pipe showed decreased volumes and there was ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 26, 2016 | |
| The Hunt for Red October is a 1990's movie based on the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States. This year's 'hunt for red October' is based off a a warm weather front that is in the forecast for the month. This is usually a time for the colder fall-like weather to set in and heating demand starts to be a factor. So far that does not look to be the case as the weather pattern has shifted into moderate temperatures across the country over the past 3-4 days and will continue on through the first week of October. A good example of the ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 23, 2016 | |
| Here at EnergyGPS we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the Texas market – especially wind projects in Texas. We’ve recently been working with some interesting ERCOT data from what is known as the “60-Day Report.” This data file, which is published by ERCOT on a 60-day lag, has tons of information on a generator level. Notably, it has information related to offer curves and dispatch levels. It is a wonderful resource. We’ve worked on a number of Texas Panhandle wind transactions. As many people know, the Panhandle portion of Texas ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 22, 2016 | |
| Starting this weekend, temperatures start to revert back to normal. This is after a summer of much above normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest, Midwest, South Central , Southeast and Eastern parts of the country. The latter three regions have seen the summer trend continue on through the month of September as the likes of Boston and New York have seen highs in the low 90's post Labor Day while the Mid-Atlantic region was not too far behind with plenty of humidity. Down South, the likes of Dallas and Houston have been rather hot as well with the ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 21, 2016 | |
| Looking at the ISONE Morning report we notice quite a bit of color in the Total Transfer Capacity (TTC) table. Currently, the Highgate interface (250 MWs) is offline while the New Brunswick tie is derated by 400 MWs and NY-AC tie is down 600 MWs. The loss of imports increases reliance on domestic power generation, driving up the LMPs and adding strength to the AGT basis price as additional gas imports from Canada are needed to meet the increased generation. Figure 1 | ISONE TTC Table - 9/19/2016 Looking forward, Import capacity over Phase ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 20, 2016 | |
| Over the years we have become accustomed to seeing rain events have a negative effect on load. After all, cool wet weather typically reduces the demand for air conditioning. This week we are seeing a very interesting weather pattern develop over Southern California. While the Los Angeles Basin has daytime highs warm to the mid 90's, monsoon winds from the south are bringing cloud cover and rain to the Inland Empire and Colorado River region. The green area in Figure 1 just happens to reside right over the new large scale solar installations in the California ... » read more | |
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