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| Friday Jan 20, 2017 | |
| The CAISO released some very interesting study results related to the 'supply of' and 'demand for' flexible capacity in the next several years as the renewable penetration rate continues to march higher. While this is a CAISO issue today, as more renewables are installed in other markets around the country, the experience of the CAISO may be relevant to other markets in the future. Here’s the bottom line. The CAISO does not have the right mix of flexible capacity resources that will be necessary to meet the net load ramps (load less renewables) in the next few ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 19, 2017 | |
| The New England gas market for years has been a constrained gas island where the main source of supply, Algonquin Pipeline, doesn't have the capacity to meet the space heating demands of the region. Because there have been no major pipeline expansions to meet the power plant demand during the peak consumption episodes, prices have a tendency to disconnect from the rest of North America. In Figure 1 below, you can see just how volatile the cash market has been over the past year. Figure 1 | Algonquin Cash Prices One of the swing sources of supply to the New ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 18, 2017 | |
| Earlier this month Governor Cuomo announced a plan to close the Indian Point Nuclear Facility by April 2021. The Entergy owned and operated power plant consists of two 1,000 MW reactors which sit on the Hudson River a little more than 30 miles north of Manhattan. The current plan calls for the first reactor to be shut down by April 2020, with the second reactor following the next year. Figure 1 | Indian Point Energy Center The closure is a big win for Cuomo and environmental groups alike who have claimed that Indian Point's repeated ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 17, 2017 | |
| With yesterday being MLK day (holiday), most of the markets were closed and the ones that are open have very little volume. As of last Friday, we have started to see the noms for Sabine LNG pick up with the uptick showing up in CCTP (Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline). Figure 1 | Sabine LNG Noms - Daily It should be noted that yesterday's I2 cycle shifted back to previous levels with today's back to the 1.8 BCF level. Figure 2 | Sabine Gas Noms - Daily As we move into the back half of the month, we will continue to watch the noms as the daily cycles come in ... » read more | |
| Monday Jan 16, 2017 | |
| It has been nearly a week since the Portland metro area saw 14 inches of snow dumped on it. The city shut down for 48 hours as the plows tried to make their way across all the major highways and streets. The tow trucks were in high demand as semi-trucks were turned sideways on any incline or overpass while individual drivers left their cars on the side of the roads (or in the roads) to catch a ride home with passing vehicles with all-wheel/4 wheel drive. During this time, the Stumptown Birkebeiner was manifesting itself once again. Figure 1 | Stumptown ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 13, 2017 | |
| A few years ago a former Enron colleague of mine, John Sherriff, asked me to review a final draft of a book he was writing about risk, decisions, business, and life. I happily read the book and gave John my feedback. John self-published Lucky and Good in August 2013 via Amazon where it can be purchased today (link below). In a burst of New Year’s motivation to get my life organized, I was sifting through some old files last weekend when I came across John’s book. I thumbed through it and came to an Appendix in the back of the book with the headline ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 12, 2017 | |
| With more storms moving through California over the past 48 hours, the damage is tied to mudslides, power outages as well as flash floods. The one area we are focusing on is the damage it has done to the drought-like reservoir levels throughout the state. The storms have poured roughly 350 billion gallons of water into the reservoirs since the beginning of the New Year. This is ultimately boosting the elevation levels above anything seen over the past 6 years. Figure 1 | California Hydro Storage Levels - January 2016 vs. January 2017 You can see in ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 11, 2017 | |
| LNG import stations dot the Eastern shoreline of the United States, most of which representing relics of an old energy market. The thermals were built to import liquefied natural gas into the US market which, at the time, had significantly weaker local production and a power grid which was exposed to fluctuating oil prices. Figure 1 | Existing LNG import/Export Terminals Map LNG imports into the US reached theirs highs in the summer of 2007 and winters of 2010 until the fracking revolution across the United States drastically ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 10, 2017 | |
| It seems like so long ago (October) when above normal temperatures were the story line throughout Alberta, especially Calgary where the daytime average was coming in 10-15 degrees above normal. Such an increase in the daytime highs shifted up the overall demand in the province during that time. Fast forward to the start of December and we have seen many days where the daytime average temperatures have been well-below normal. Take for instance, the first part of the month when Calgary saw a good 10 days with below normal temperatures hovering over the city. » read more | |
| Monday Jan 9, 2017 | |
| Over the New Years holiday break, we drove down to visit my mother-in-law who lives in Pismo Beach, CA. We flew into San Jose, CA and decided to take our time and drive the scenic Highway 1 (Hwy 1) along the coast. For those of you who grew up in Southern California, you know it better as 'The 1', but for this newsletter, we will continue to call it Hwy 1. I have never done it before, so I was excited as the road takes you past a couple of old power plants that have been discussed in great lengths over the years, they are Moss Landing and Morro Bay. » read more | |
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