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Thursday Dec 22, 2016   
The recent arctic blast that pushed down from Canada and moved through the Midwest and Northeast dropped temperatures well below normal of this time of year. Figure 1 | Chicago Temperatures - Daily Actual and Forecast In fact, by the weekend, the colder weather shifted down into the South Central region as well with Houston's overnight low dropping down to the freezing level. Figure 2 | Houston Temperatures - Daily Actual and Forecast All this added up to the rescom demand within the Lower 48 shifting up to the 63 BCF level on the 19th.  On the same day ... » read more
Wednesday Dec 21, 2016   
Early this week a shot of cold weather moved through southern California which pushed up Sendouts on the SoCal gas system to in the 3.5-3.6 BCF range. This is the highest level we have seen since last winter when they were taking gas out of Aliso Canyon to fix the leak.  Over the summer, the highest Sendouts we saw were in the 3.4-3.5 BCF level (August 16th).  During that time, we saw SoCal Border basis blow out to $0.71 in the cash market (outright price of $3.41).  Figure 1 | SoCal Basis - Cash From a balancing perspective on that day, we saw gas ... » read more
Tuesday Dec 20, 2016   
Starting this past weekend, the Arctic air that was moving across the northern tier of the continent pushed southward through the Mississippi Valley wreaking havoc on the production volumes in the MidContinent and Rockies. This is a three day cold air event that started on Sunday and lasts through Tuesday. From Friday to Sunday, the freeze offs along the eastern Rockies area amounted to 1.66 BCF.  Figure 1 | Monday Weather Conditions The drop took total US production volumes down to 69.6 BCF which is only one of three episodes where the Lower 48 production ... » read more
Monday Dec 19, 2016   
With temperatures in Southern California shifting down this weekend, the operators at SoCal Gas have been on high alert as the systems sendouts jumped up to the 3.3-3.4 BCF range as heating demand picked up. Figure 1 | Burbank Temperatures As a result, several notes have been published with the latest last night stating that the grid was on 'curtailment watch' due to concerns of supply shortfalls as the rescom demand was rising and as a result there was significant reliance on storage withdrawals. Figure 2 | SoCal Gas Critical Notice - Curtailment Watch As we move ... » read more
Friday Dec 16, 2016   
I was recently discussing long term California power markets with a client. The conversation turned to the potential for negative prices. When talking to renewable developers the conversation often goes as follows: Client: “Real time prices can go negative, but you don’t expect that day ahead prices will go negative too, do you?” EnergyGPS: “Um … day ahead prices have been negative already and we expect the frequency to increase in the future.” Client: “Ok, but that will just be an anomaly, day ahead prices won’t be ... » read more
Thursday Dec 15, 2016   
Last December was such an anomaly as the temperatures were so mild across the entire continent.  This led to well below normal rescom demand in the Midwest and Eastern parts of the country to a poitn that the price of natural gas took a big nose-dive.  The big shift down in the cash market/forward curve moved the natural gas fired generation lower in the supply stack in many regions (below that of coal), including PJM. As a result, we saw more power burns via natural gas than that of coal fired generators.  Once we got into January, that changed as some ... » read more
Wednesday Dec 14, 2016   
The Midwest and East Coast are preparing themselves for a serious cold shot this weekend as the "Polar Vortex" meanders south and drops sub-freezing arctic air across the continental US. Temperatures are forecasted to decline the remainder of the week with the coldest weather expected to hit Friday. High temperatures are not expected to break 20 degrees in Boston for Friday while NYC sees a high of only 25 degrees.   Figure 1 | NOAA Northeast High Temperatures Maps – Dec 15th & Dec 16th    As is typically the case, the freezing ... » read more
Tuesday Dec 13, 2016   
The drop in temperatures across Western Canada and the Rockies has had a big effect on Canadian and US production since the beginning of the month. Overall production across the Lower 48 is down .6 BCF and Canadian production is down 1 BCF. This is largely caused by freeze offs occurring on the well heads The weather event unfolding in the west is some of the coldest weather we have seen in three years.  Figure 1 | Current Weather Map   These freeze off events are a common occurrence when the temperatures dip below freezing in many of the production areas ... » read more
Monday Dec 12, 2016   
Its seems like forever since we have seen a deep purple color hovering over the southern portion of Canada and the northern portion of the Lower 48.   About the middle of last week, we started to see temperatures drop in the Midwest and Northeast portion of the United States while Calgary, AB saw its temperatures drop over 20 degrees below normal.  The Pacific Northwest joined in on the party on Thursday and Friday and 1-2 inches of snow covered the Portland metro area and freezing temperatures gave the kids a 4 day weekend (school cancelled for two ... » read more
Friday Dec 9, 2016   
As a consultant who works on a lot of power transactions, the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas can be quite volatile. During some years this is a quiet time where you can tie up a bunch of loose ends and get organized for the upcoming year. In other years it can be very busy as clients are trying to close deals before the end of the year and require support in this effort. With a large proportion of EnergyGPS’ work coming from the renewable sector, how busy we are at the end of the year is one small indicator of the health of the industry. As far as we ... » read more
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