The summer in ERCOT so far has seen demand come in markedly above prior years. This trend is especially notable given that temperatures haven't been exceptionally hot. The figure below, taken from our most recent Monthly Renewables Report, shows ERCOT average daily temperature (and departure from normal) for the month of June. July, so far, has also not displayed any exceptional heat.  

Figure 1 | ERCOT Daily Temperature and DFN, June 2026

Despite the lack of any extreme heat events, demand for June was markedly higher than prior years. Unlike some of the demand growth in prior years, this year has displayed growth across all hours of the day (top pane in the figure below).

Figure 2 | ERCOT Load, Net Load, and Battery-Adjusted Net load

As the figure above shows, YoY movements on net load (middle pane) are mixed—wind and solar have both displayed some additional strength this summer compared to last, but during the overnight hours in June and July the demand growth has won out, leading to an overall increase in net load.

However, the real story is in the bottom pane, which takes net load and adds in battery charging and discharging. This demonstrates the ability of the battery fleet to smooth out the net load peaks and troughs, particularly the more extreme ones in July to date. Compared to the relatively sharp shapes in the net load profile, the battery-adjusted profile is much smoother, with less distance between the low and high points. In May and June, which have peak net load this year in line with prior years, adding in the battery dispatch results in a year-on-year decrease. In July, peak net load for the first part of the month has been higher than prior years, but battery dispatch brings it down to a similar level.

As the summer continues, ERCOT's strong demand projections and demonstrated growth YTD mean that there is still significant uncertainty with how the supply/demand balance will play out. For now, renewables and storage appear to be enough to keep net load and volatility in check. If you're interested in staying up to date on market developments as they occur, consider signing up for one of our subscription packages, or reach out to [email protected] to learn more.