April showers bring May flowers has been the slogan for decades.  It is a time when spring conditions transition away from the cooler overnight temperatures and a precipitation pattern that a few months prior would be snowfall to that of sunny skies and drier conditions.  The shock and awe of the changing weather dynamics is enough to get the flowers blooming and the trees fulling the green coloration that will last until fall.

Figure 1 | The May Bloom

In the energy space, North America’s market fundamentals were such that the conditions throughout the month of May were tied to short weather sprints that ramped up the hourly power demand profiles only to be offset by the continued growth of renewable solar generation and periods where the wind profile carried a lot of weight in regions such as ERCOT and SPP.  The net load numbers had to take into consideration the fact that May was still a month where natural gas and nuclear outages needed to be factored into the marginal cost of power.  This especially held true during the evening ramp block of hours as power demand support was met with the sun setting and wind generation deltas creating opportunity for both battery and a limited volume of quick-start natural gas peaking units.  The short sprint events could be deemed a test run for what might be in store starting in June and carrying over into Q3-2025 as the load growth story lives on while all eyes are on Mother Nature and what she will deliver in terms of temperatures.  Below are the highlights around North America (no particular order) that gives some color to what the future might from May’s bloom.