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In EGPS’ long-term hydro forecast, why are the months of April and August each divided into two parts?
We separate both months into halves due to annual rules regarding fish spill for the hydro projects in the Lower Snake and Lower Columbia basins that significantly impact generation part-way through each month. These stricter fish spill requirements kick in part way through April and mean that the greater portion of inflows to these hydro projects do not pass through the generators in the dams but are diverted into spill, thus decreasing generation. These requirements end in mid-August, where we see a significant increase in generation on similar inflows. For our hydro forecasts, “Apr” and “Aug” refer to the first 15 days of April and August, respectively, while “Apr1” and “Aug1” refer to the remainder of each month.
EGPS long-term hydro forecast refers to a “Normal”. What does this mean?
Our Normal forecast refers to the expected monthly generation based on average flows and conditions. We use the official normal unregulated Jan-Jul, Apr-Jul, Jan-Aug, and Jan-Sep seasonal flows at The Dalles, Lower Granite, and Grand Coulee from the Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC), which consist of the 30-year average from 1991-2020. These flows are used as inputs in our long-term hydro forecast model, which accounts for typical project operations with respect to flood control draft and refill as well as fish spill requirements. These requirements and directives are updated periodically, and our Normal hydro forecast is updated to account for these changes.
What does the term "River Basin" encompass?
We divide the PNW hydro system into different basins or collections of projects by region. See Table 1 and Figure 1 below for a list of projects by river basin and map.
Table 1| Above Grand Coulee (AGC) | Albeni Falls, Boundary, Box Canyon, Cabinet Gorge, Hungry Horse, Kerr, Little Falls, Libby, Long Lake, Nine Mile, Noxon, Thompson Falls |
| Upper Columbia (UC) | Chief Joseph, Grand Coulee |
| Middle Columbia (MC) | Priest Rapids, Rock Island, Rocky Reach, Wanapum, Wells |
| Middle Snake (MS) | Brownlee, Hells Canyon, Oxbow |
| Lower Snake (LS) | Dworshak, Ice Harbor, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Lower Granite |
| Lower Columbia (LC) | Bonneville, John Day, McNary, The Dalles |
| Westside (WS) | Alder, Chelan, Cowlitz, Diablo, Electron, Green Peter, Jackson Hydro, La Grande, Lower Baker, Lookout Point, Mayfield, Merwin, Mossy Rock,
Ross, Snoqualmie Falls I, Snoqualmie Falls II, Swift 1, Swift 2, Upper Baker, Yale |
| Willamette Valley (WV) | Big Cliff, Cougar, Detroit, Dexter, Foster, Hills Creek, Lost Creek, Pelton, Round Butte |
Figure 1
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