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Wednesday Oct 12, 2016   
Starting in early September we typically see the HDD count across the country begin to grow as the nation slides into fall. However, this year has been characterized by above normal temperatures weak HDD growth. Figure 1 displays the previous two year's gas weighted daily HDD count in the top portion of the graph (line segments) and the deviation from normal in the bar graph at the bottom of the graph.  As you can see, the last two years have seen a similar growth through September both falling behind normal from the start of September.  In ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 11, 2016   
At EnergyGPS, we have always tried to respond to the demands of our customers. This is why we have put together a new morning report focused on the South Central region of the country. ERCOT and SPP power markets have seen large changes in renewables additions, coal retirements and power burns over the past years making this a very dynamic market to monitor. The natural gas space is as complex as any in the world. Onshore production, offshore production, salt storage and pipeline infrastructure expansions make this area one of constant change. We cover these topics ... » read more
Monday Oct 10, 2016   
Today is Columbus Day, which remembers the voyage by one Christopher Columbus to the new land (America).  I could not help but think about what it would be like on his boat as he navigated his way over the Atlantic Ocean fighting off storm after storm and actually make it to land.  The reason for this thought was due to Hurricane Matthew making landfall in the Carolinas over the weekend.  As a result of the high winds and rain, over a million households and businesses were left without power.  If you watched any college football games along the ... » read more
Friday Oct 7, 2016   
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took Canadian provinces by surprise Monday by announcing they have until 2018 to adopt a carbon pricing plan. If not the Canadian government will step in and impose a price for them. A tough-talking Trudeau told the House of Commons that provinces can craft a cap-and-trade system or put a direct price on carbon pollution — provided it meets the federal carbon floor price. "If neither price nor cap and trade is in place by 2018, the government of Canada will implement a price in that jurisdiction," he said. Trudeau ... » read more
Thursday Oct 6, 2016   
While production has trended down across the country for most of the summer, we saw a dramatic change this weekend that may cause ripples at least until we get into the winter months. Coming out of summer, power burns in the east started to move back to seasonal normal. As demand started to wane, the overall supply - demand balance started to loosen creating an oversupplied condition in the daily pipeline balancing. Normally there would be storage capacity available to soak up excess gas keeping pipeline pressures in check. After last years warm winter, there is a ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 5, 2016   
Over the past year we have seen an unseasonably warm winter stifled heating demand and as a result the gas storage levels were well above last years levels come the spring. Thanks to an especially warm summer, power burns across the country picked up and the massive storage has been drastically diminished.  According to the most recent EIA weekly gas report, national storage reached 3,600 BCF for week ending 9/23/2016 which is only 90 BCF above 2015.   Figure 1 | EIA Total US Natural Gas Storage - YoY  Breaking down storage by ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 4, 2016   
Everywhere I turn, it seems like there is some sort of pumpkin offering front and center.  For example, dropping into Starbucks, the chalkboard read 'Come and Enjoy your Pumpkin Latte'.  As you walked up to order, there sits a pumpkin scone with its thick icing ready for you to say please give me one of those.  For those of you who have lived in Oregon and parts of Washington, you know Burgerville well.  The healthy 'fast-food' regional chain prides itself by shopping local and having some seasonal item on their menu at all times.  Throughout ... » read more
Monday Oct 3, 2016   
Looking back at the month of September, California's solar profile shifted down over the course of the month with the last two weeks seeing two major dips. Figure 1 | Year on Year California Solar Comparison - Daily The first dip was due to unseasonable cloud over Southern California and the Desert Southwest that lasted a couple of days.  The second shift down was due to unplanned maintenance and economic curtailment due to regional congestion.  Regardless of the reason, the monthly average shifted down just over 200 MWa across the heavy load hours. Figure ... » read more
Friday Sep 30, 2016   
One of my favorite things to read each year is JP Morgan’s annual energy outlook. This year’s outlook came out over the summer and is called “Sentimental Journey - The long, winding road to a renewable energy future.” I found it as I was perusing Vaclav Smil’s web page. The report is worth reading from cover to cover. It addresses issues such as (1) the long term commodity cycle, (2) the slow evolution of electric vehicles, (3) New York state’s ... » read more
Thursday Sep 29, 2016   
This past month has been one of the hottest September's on record as the Northeast saw record heat for the first three weeks of the month before cooling off this past week. Figure 1 |NYISO Peak Load Forecast Moving to the South Central and Southeast portions of the country, Mother Nature gave us more of the same as Dallas was approaching triple digits last week while Houston was hot and humid (similar to summer).  As a result, the grid saw slightly more wind month to date compared to last month but it was still quite a bit lower than what we saw in July ... » read more
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