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Tuesday Jul 7, 2020   
It has been a long three months of social distancing and lock down for my family (Stebbines). The efforts to avoid COVID contact started back in February when we had several neighborhood doctors warn elderly residents about the coming pandemic. By and large we have been disciplined about hand washing, face masks and avoiding unnecessary trips into public. It has worked. My family and those that live around me have been able to avoid catastrophe. But the cost has been the lack of comfort we have previously enjoyed. Prior to the outbreak we could come and go as we pleased never giving care to transmitting a virus. This has taken a toll on the teen age kids. They miss their friends and have become anxious about increasing contact this fall when they go back to school.  Because we got so ... » read more
Monday Jul 6, 2020   
As we start the first full week of July, the summer heat is upon us as the Midwest is topping the 90 degree mark as daytime highs while the likes of New York and other surrounding demand centers are looking at highs in the upper 80's with plenty of humidity.  In fact, over the next 48 hours, the weather pattern is going to bring some thunderstorms to the region that is shifting up its power demand load profile. Figure 1 | NYISO Daily Power Demand Profile - Next 7 Days The heat is not isolated to the Midwest and Eastern seaboard as the Southeast and South Central felt some wamer weather over the long 4th of July weekend.  The upcoming week is going to give way to higher wind generation which in turn will actually drive down the overall net load profile within ERCOT and ... » read more
Thursday Jul 2, 2020   
This 4th of July is going to be a little different than years past for many as the family trips over the long holiday weekend have been postponed, camp sites are functioning but still do not have the energy that warrants enjoying smores around the campfire with friends/family and the firework displays in some cities have been postponed to limit the bigger crowds along a waterfront of some sort.  Since the celebrations are going to be few and far between, I thought it would be a good time to celebration the EnergyGPS Newsletter Product as it has been around for over 18 months now and growing with clients on a daily basis.  The EnergyGPS Newsletter product offering was designed to allow individuals like yourself to stay on top of pertinent topics in the energy space on a ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 1, 2020   
We have written about the AC de-rate for the month of June 2020 in several of our daily/weekly reports as it has impacted both the power and natural gas markets across the West.  For example, the excess hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest along with the de-rated AC transmission line has forced the Midc heavy and light load to price itself out of the gas stack most of the month.  This has led to the both GTN and NWP pipeline power burn nominations to average .206 BCF/d for the month whereas June 2019 averaged .587 BCF/d.  The .381 BCF/d delta is a big number considering the fact that natural gas prices have dropped, which is usually an opportunity for gas plants to beat out the other thermal units in the supply stack.  The problem in the Pacific Northwest is the ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 30, 2020   
The rally in the natural gas spot market stems from the grid ramping up its power burn demand from units sourced by the molecules on the pipelines.  Some of this demand stems from Mother Nature keeping the power profiles at summertime levels with the renewable penetration waning in places such as ERCOT and SPP as we move into a new month.  In our latest article published, 'How wide is net?', we detailed the key moving parts to the recent shift down and what it would take to move the needle back into the middle of the range of the current prompt month contact level.  At the end of the day it takes demand on the system and with the power burns hitting 38 BCF/d on Monday and estimated to top the 39.5 BCF/d mark for today, the June monthly average will exceed last year's level ... » read more
Monday Jun 29, 2020   
The old saying "when it rains it pours" could not be more fitting to a region that gets plenty of rainfall throughout the year.  That region, of course, is the Pacfic Northwest as another Water Year is coming to an end.  This weekend was not about how Mother Nature drops precipitation on the region at any given period from November of the previous year though the month of June. Instead, it is was about how much snowpack there is at the higher elevation, the lack of power demand on the grid, strong wind days and the circumstances around the transmission capacity reductions on the major lines heading into California.  As the end of the day, the events listed were more impactful to the Midc prices than any weather event Mother Nature could throw at the system in the form of a ... » read more
Friday Jun 26, 2020   
Despite the strong environmental ethic of its denizens, the Pacific Northwest has been a dead zone for renewable energy development over the last decade.  Of course the power system has its enormous hydro renewable resource base and a strong conservation ethic that began in the 1980s, with the passage of the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act.  Despite the region's particularly good wind resource base, wind energy deployment in Oregon and Washington has been largely stalled since 2012. Current installed capacity has reached 6,200 MW.  This is a level that will impress your neighbor but we know that's a yawn in comparison to the installed capacity of  ERCOT, SPP, or MISO.  The PNW has no centralized power market or regional ... » read more
Thursday Jun 25, 2020   
The Pacific Northwest saw some nicer weather this week as temperatures shifted up into the mid 80's across the middle of the day while the overnight lows shifted up into the mid 60's.  Leading up to this little warm up, the region has been quite chilly when it comes to overnight temperatures and daytime highs for that matter and plenty of precipitation in the form of rainfall.  As a result of this weather pattern, the supply stack has seen plenty of hydro and wind generation fill the lower portion, which then takes the marginal cost of energy out of the thermal stack.  The graph below is a good illustration of how the hydro generation has played out over the past few weeks and what it looks like compared to last year's June output. Figure 1 | Pacific Northwest Flat ... » read more
Wednesday Jun 24, 2020   
There is always exciting things going on in the energy space, especially when it comes to the power markets.  Over the years, we have seen the supply stack get new capacity from renewable resources as well as natural gas-fired generators while coal plants were being retired.  At first, the renewable of choice was wind farms across the West and into the Midwest/SPP and Texas.  The days of Palm Springs and West Texas wind farms being the only game in town were long gone as the Pacific Northwest beat everyone to the punch and increased their capacity by placing turbines in the Columbia River Gorge as well as Walla Walla and Central Washington.  This was a natural fit with the hydro system providing flexibility around such assets.  Entities such as Grant County PUD ... » read more
Tuesday Jun 23, 2020   
The Aliso Canyon saga has been removed from the headlines as of recent. All the issues of COVID and the associated demand destruction has pushed previously relevant topics to the back page. But all is not forgotten. This past week SoCal Gas posted a notice that they intend to fill the beleagurered cavern to its allowable capacity of 34 BCF by July 3. That would be just prior to the ramp up in summer cooling load. Total SoCal inventory is running much higher than years past. On a 83 BCF complex maximum they are only 8 BCF from the top. At face value it is good news that there is ample in ground supply for the rest of summer. But a lack of storage injection capacity also means the SoCal system will be at the mercy of pipeline balancing once again. The demand destruction from the contagion ... » read more
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