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Thursday Aug 11, 2016   
Throughout the month of July, California's hydro situation continued to look healthy as the monthly flat average came in almost 1,800 MWa higher than last year and only 160 MWa compared to the month of June. Figure 1 | California Hydro Generation - Monthly Flat Average From a storage standpoint, things look pretty healthy as well with the likes of Shasta still well above normal when it comes to its year on year elevation levels. Figure 2 | Shasta's Elevation Levels (ft) - Daily Once August started to roll around, the daytime high temperatures have come in well below ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 10, 2016   
In the previous newsletter we highlighted our new Northeastern Natural Gas Report which covers key metrics needed to understand the day to day changes in the Northeast gas cash market. As a part of our ongoing commitment to provide value added information we have also created daily New England and New York power market reports.  The daily reports break down the fundamental drivers of the individual markets with a special emphasis on the generation availability and the supply stack fuel mix.  Each day we strive to provide specific insight for the next ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 9, 2016   
At EnergyGPS we are always striving to bring a better product to the market that will fit the needs of the trading community.Recently we have developed a Northeast Natural Gas report that addresses some of the key metrics needed to understand the day to day changes in the Northeast cash market. Besides insightful commentary on market events, we provide daily outlooks on production, power burns, and transportation flows that effect the overall daily balancing of the Northeast gas and power markets. At the bottom of each morning report we summarize the maintenance and ... » read more
Monday Aug 8, 2016   
The first week of August has a seen a continuation of above normal temperatures across the state of Texas.  For example, Dallas has seen highs in the low triple digits the past week or so, which is roughly 4-5 degrees above normal for this time of year.  To give you a perspective of just how hot it is, the overnight lows only get down to 81 degrees putting the overall average around 90 degrees Figure 1 | Dallas Temperatures - Forecast vs. Actual If you factor in the humidity that is associated with the above normal temperatures, the heat index is a few ... » read more
Friday Aug 5, 2016   
The state of Washington will have a carbon emissions tax on the ballot in November of 2016. A “yes” vote will impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels and fossil-fuel generated electricity. The ballot summary is as follows: “This measure would impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels and fossil-fuel-generated electricity, at $15 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in 2017, and increasing gradually to $100 per metric ton (2016 dollars adjusted for inflation), with more gradual phase-in for ... » read more
Thursday Aug 4, 2016   
As the heat dissipated late last week, the first few days of August in the Pacific Northwest were beautiful as the skies were blue and the daytime highs reached 75-80 degrees.  The key was the overnight temperatures as they dropped down into the low 50's in some areas to make sleeping with the windows open feel more like camping.  From a price standpoint, this kept Midc in check with the heavy load indexing $27.89 for Monday or a 10.06 implied heat.  With SP15 settling in at $38.55, the flows from the Pacific Northwest made their way down into ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 3, 2016   
Frequent readers of this newsletter will know that the relationship between coal and natural gas generation has been an ongoing and evolving theme over the last year.  Heading into the summer speculation began to swirl around the idea that the strong load could drive an increase in coal generation relative to gas, reversing the trend that was set this spring when natural gas prices bottomed out. The simple argument for this came in early June when the cash natural gas price moved up from the $2.00 level to the $2.75 mark rather quickly and putting the ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 2, 2016   
One of the big surprises in last weeks EIA number was the large withdrawal in the South Central Region. We are accustomed to the Salt storage facilities reacting to the cash price but this time it was also the basin storage that reported withdrawals. The region, as a whole, took 18 BCF out of the ground setting the stage for a 22 cent rise in the September NYMEX Henry Hub contract after the inventory report.  Figure 1 | EIA Inventory Report for Week Ending July 22, 2016 In order for withdrawals to occur, there must be the proper incentive for storage operators ... » read more
Monday Aug 1, 2016   
After a week of extensive heat across the entire West, where we saw the likes of Midc and Palo Verde price themselves over SP15 by $15 so that the energy flowing on the transmission lines into California would want to stay in their respective regions.  In fact, at these price levels, some took it upon themselves to export power from the CAISO day-ahead market.  This could be seen with the Mead flows. Figure 1 | CAISO Day-Ahead Heavy Load Mead Flows - Hourly As you can see in Figure 1, last Thursday/Friday were the two days that really stuck out as ... » read more
Friday Jul 29, 2016   
A large portion of our work at EnergyGPS pertains to shedding insights into risk and price. We analyze everything from next day power, to next month natural gas, to next year’s heat rates, to the long term prices. As any trader can attest, it is a difficult game. Some might even argue the price prediction business is a fool’s errand. Back in the trading days we used a litany of metrics to evaluate trading skill. One of those metrics was “batting average” which attempted to measure how often a trader was right. The rock star traders had batting ... » read more
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