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Wednesday Sep 23, 2015   
As August ended, the big question was what were the hydro operators going to do with storage in Canada and the United States.  Now that we are going on the 23rd day of September, I thought it would be good to take a look at how things have played out.  First, the total hydro output has averaged around 8800 MW across the 24 hour strip.  This is right in-line with the EnergyGPS Long Term forecast model run that was released in mid-August.  What is interesting is the flexibility the system has as he heavy load has been averaging over 11,000 MW over ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 22, 2015   
Going into this week, it was pretty much known that the AC (Paci) transmission line was going to be de-rated during a period of heavy load hours in some capacity.  By all accounts, the estimated reduction of MWs was roughly 1,000 MWa.  This held true for Monday's auction clears as Paci flows decreased by 800 MWa starting HE 8.  Figure 1 | Paci Day Ahead Flows - Hourly With CAISO's load shifting up as well, due to the warmer weather, the grid was roughly 4,400 MWa shorter day on day when you look at load and Paci flows. Figure 2 | CAISO Day Ahead ... » read more
Monday Sep 21, 2015   
The entire continental United States is looking at moderate loads as we head into Fall.  This was evident once again as you watched the NFL ticket and all the games on Sunday.  From Buffalo, New York to games on the West Coast, the weather looked fantastic (unlike some of our favorite teams).  This translates into moderate power load across the country, which can be seen in the EnergyGPS NG Power Load report below. Figure 1 | NG Power Load Report - Daily The only region that is seeing above normal temperatures right now is the state of California as ... » read more
Friday Sep 18, 2015   
With the latest EIA storage report showing another 21 BCF increase in the Producing region, the overall levels increased to 303 BCF over last year and 149 BCF over the 5 year average. Figure 1 | EIA Weekly Storage Breakout This might not seem like a big deal at first, but when you look at the progression over the past 6 weeks, things are back on track for storage levels to be at an all time high. Figure 2 | Producing Region Storage - Year on Year Looking at Figure 2,  you can see back in April when this year crossed over the 2013 level and on track to ... » read more
Thursday Sep 17, 2015   
One of the main discussions heading into this fall was the anticipation of a high number of nuclear outages.  Nuclear units must refuel every 18-24 months and need to come completely offline for weeks at a time in order to do so.  Typically, these outages are clustered during the Spring and Fall shoulder months. Last spring saw the lowest nuclear outages in the last five years.  As a result, planned outages this spring are expected to hit a 3 year high for the fall.  Figure 1 | Forecasted Nuclear Outages (MW) - Daily  Over the weekend ... » read more
Wednesday Sep 16, 2015   
With half of September in the books, the heat wave that hit the state of California last weeks continues to feel like a dream as scheduled demand this week has been quite a bit lower.  In fact, Burbank even had some precipitation hit the area yesterday morning. Figure 1 | CAISO Load Forecast - Forecast vs Actual From a day-ahead perspective, schedule loads have shifted down over 16,000 MW at the peak and 10,000 MWa across the heavy load hours. Figure 2 | CAISO Day Ahead Scheduled Load Such a shift down only means one thing to the marginal heat rate in the ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 15, 2015   
Over the past couple of weeks, the majority of the continental United States (except for California) has been transitioning from summer like weather to that of fall.  This is the usual time of year as the daylight hours are shrinking to a point that the sun is setting around 6:45 pm compared to 9:00 pm.  An example of this transition is that of MISO, where the peak load on September 3rd hit 112.8 GW and by the 11th it fell to 81.2 GW. Figure 1 | MISO Actual Load/Wind Profile - Hourly One thing to notice in the graph above, albeit the peak demand has shifted ... » read more
Monday Sep 14, 2015   
With the NFL kicking off its regular season this past weekend, the NFL Ticket package was paid in full once again this season.  I have to admit, the sole purpose of the package in our household is so we can watch every Green Bay Packer game live or recorded depending on the kids activities.  What I have found out over the years of owning the package is I find myself flipping through the other games as well, not only to see who is beating who but to understand the real weather across the country.  For example, at kick off yesterday Chicago was looking at ... » read more
Friday Sep 11, 2015   
As the NFL kicks-off its regular season and football fever begins to take over, I am reminded of that old exercise the 'Up-down'.  For those of you fortune enough to have never experienced up-downs, the workout is exactly as it sounds.   Players run in place, fall to the ground, then stand up as fast as possible, only to slam to the ground again moments later up a coach's whistle.  I mention the up-down because that is the best way to describe the Cali gas market over the last couple of weeks.  Hot temperatures in California ... » read more
Thursday Sep 10, 2015   
As temperatures continue to increase across the state, so does the load profile within the CAISO footprint.  As of 9:00 am yesterday morning, CAISO revised their peak load forecast by 1,400 MW, with the split evenly across PGAE and SCE's tac region. Looking at the CAISO Day Ahead auction results for today, the schedules load shifted up by 1,400 MWa across the heavy load and just under 1,700 MW at the peak. Figure 1 | CAISO Day-Ahead Scheduled Load - Hourly Looking under the hood, what you saw was PGAE's load increase more than SCE's load while SDGE was basically ... » read more
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