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Wednesday Sep 9, 2015   
Prior to the CAISO Load Forecast report coming out at 9:00 am PST yesterday morning, the cash market was assuming a slight uptick in the overall load and things started out rather strong.  This was a result of yesterday's DA results being high due to the load shifting up quite a bit compared to what we were seeing prior to the Labor Day weekend, generation turned off because of the lack of load all last week and the long weekend gas prices being used in the denominator of the implied heat rate. Cash started to drift down after the initial flurry and ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 8, 2015   
Everyone should be back in school by now and college/pro football is going to be get rolling this upcoming weekend.  Both are signs we are in September and Fall is right around the corner.  This translates into the power demand profile changing to where the peak output shifts down as well as the shape squeezing in due to the daylight hours getting shorter (sunset in Portland is around 7:30 p.m. now, compared to the 8:30 p.m. a couple of weeks ago). Looking at the EnergyGPS Peak Load report, we can see the grid is shifting down considerably over the next 7 ... » read more
Friday Sep 4, 2015   
As temperatures continue to drift down across the state of California, so has the scheduled load within each of the three demand regions.  For example, yesterday saw the peak demand shift down 1,900 MW compared to the previous day.  As you can see in Figure 1, this put the peak over 7 GW lower compared to Monday and over 12 GW lower than last Friday. Figure 1| CAISO Day Ahead Cleared Demand - Hourly Heavy load   As mentioned in yesterday's newsletter, the overall heavy load heat rates have shifted down from the 12.66 lto the 10.22 level during this time ... » read more
Thursday Sep 3, 2015   
As we head into the long holiday weekend, California demand continues to shift down as the entire state is looking at moderate temperatures. Figure 1 | Burbank Temperatures - Actual and Forecast This has led to the overall peak demand to fall over 9,000 MW from where we were a week ago.  Most of the decrease is showing up in the Southern part of the state as SCE and SDGE's demand profile has shifted down drastically. Figure 2 | CAISO Peak Load - Actual vs Forecast Such a decline has pushed the SP15 implied heat rates down from the 12.6 level across the heavy ... » read more
Wednesday Sep 2, 2015   
With August in the books, that means the Lower Columbia spill requirements have come to an end for yet another year.  This translates into more KCFS moving through the turbines for the time being all else being equal.  From a short term hydro perspective, that would equate to roughly 1,400 more MWa coming out of the Lower Columbia basin using the current NWRFC's predicted flows. Figure 1 | EnergyGPS Short Term Hydro Forecast - Flat As you can see both the MCN (McNary) and TDA (The Dalles) flows are coming in lower, hence the delta change will be more like ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 1, 2015   
Now that we are in September, most kids are back in school and football season is right around the corner.  This translates into the current weather pattern changing right before our eyes and the leaves start changing colors.  In many cases, the month of September is the transition between the end of summer and the beginning of fall.   From a load perspective, several ISO's see a big drop off starting in the middle of the month and lasting on through the winter.  For example, PJM shows a big drop-off starting in the middle of September. Prior to ... » read more
Monday Aug 31, 2015   
This weekend was the annual Hood to Coast relay race/run where teams of 12 gathered themselves in two mini-vans and trekked from Mt Hood (Timberline Lodge) to Seaside, OR.  The expectation was to finish sometime on Saturday and enjoy the nice refreshments and sponsored tents set up along the beach.  As the initial runners made it through Friday without much obstacles when it came to Mother Nature, the person running around 2:00 am Saturday morning was met with severe thunderstorms/lightning, precipitation and gusting winds.  This trend continued ... » read more
Friday Aug 28, 2015   
As Grand Coulee sits at its elevation target of 1277.8 ft, the overall generation on the grid shifted down on Wednesday.  As you can see in Figure 1, the entire shape shifted down with the biggest gap showing up in the later evening hours where the delta topped 1,750 MW.  Looking at the overall heavy load, the day on day change ended up being more like 1,100 MWa . Figure 1 | Total EnergyGPS Hydro Generation - Hourly Yesterday was the second day of the system operators not having the ability to draft water out of storage during the super peak hours, so ... » read more
Thursday Aug 27, 2015   
With California's load soaring and some heat hitting the Portland during the later afternoon hours on Tuesday, Grand Coulee drafted another .7 ft to help balance grid.  This move put them right at their end of August target of 1277.7 ft.  From a MW output standpoint, the heavy load has averaged 12,200 MW on Monday and 12,500 MW on Tuesday with a peak output over 13,000 MW both days. Figure 1 | Grand Coulee Elevation - Daily Starting yesterday, system operators did not draft and it is having an impact on the overall hydro generation on the grid. » read more
Wednesday Aug 26, 2015   
So far this week, the heat in Southern California has not disappointed as Burbank is looking at highs in the upper 99's today and tomorrow.  This is over 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Figure 1 | Burbank Temperatures - Actual vs Forecast From a power load perspective, CAISO has been showing the load increasing since the late last week.  As you can see in Figure 2, the peak CAISO demand is expected to top the 44 GW mark tomorrow and Friday.  This is after it jumped up roughly 3 GW from yesterday to today.  You can also see the ... » read more
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