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Thursday Oct 6, 2016   
While production has trended down across the country for most of the summer, we saw a dramatic change this weekend that may cause ripples at least until we get into the winter months. Coming out of summer, power burns in the east started to move back to seasonal normal. As demand started to wane, the overall supply - demand balance started to loosen creating an oversupplied condition in the daily pipeline balancing. Normally there would be storage capacity available to soak up excess gas keeping pipeline pressures in check. After last years warm winter, there is a ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 5, 2016   
Over the past year we have seen an unseasonably warm winter stifled heating demand and as a result the gas storage levels were well above last years levels come the spring. Thanks to an especially warm summer, power burns across the country picked up and the massive storage has been drastically diminished.  According to the most recent EIA weekly gas report, national storage reached 3,600 BCF for week ending 9/23/2016 which is only 90 BCF above 2015.   Figure 1 | EIA Total US Natural Gas Storage - YoY  Breaking down storage by ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 4, 2016   
Everywhere I turn, it seems like there is some sort of pumpkin offering front and center.  For example, dropping into Starbucks, the chalkboard read 'Come and Enjoy your Pumpkin Latte'.  As you walked up to order, there sits a pumpkin scone with its thick icing ready for you to say please give me one of those.  For those of you who have lived in Oregon and parts of Washington, you know Burgerville well.  The healthy 'fast-food' regional chain prides itself by shopping local and having some seasonal item on their menu at all times.  Throughout ... » read more
Monday Oct 3, 2016   
Looking back at the month of September, California's solar profile shifted down over the course of the month with the last two weeks seeing two major dips. Figure 1 | Year on Year California Solar Comparison - Daily The first dip was due to unseasonable cloud over Southern California and the Desert Southwest that lasted a couple of days.  The second shift down was due to unplanned maintenance and economic curtailment due to regional congestion.  Regardless of the reason, the monthly average shifted down just over 200 MWa across the heavy load hours. Figure ... » read more
Friday Sep 30, 2016   
One of my favorite things to read each year is JP Morgan’s annual energy outlook. This year’s outlook came out over the summer and is called “Sentimental Journey - The long, winding road to a renewable energy future.” I found it as I was perusing Vaclav Smil’s web page. The report is worth reading from cover to cover. It addresses issues such as (1) the long term commodity cycle, (2) the slow evolution of electric vehicles, (3) New York state’s ... » read more
Thursday Sep 29, 2016   
This past month has been one of the hottest September's on record as the Northeast saw record heat for the first three weeks of the month before cooling off this past week. Figure 1 |NYISO Peak Load Forecast Moving to the South Central and Southeast portions of the country, Mother Nature gave us more of the same as Dallas was approaching triple digits last week while Houston was hot and humid (similar to summer).  As a result, the grid saw slightly more wind month to date compared to last month but it was still quite a bit lower than what we saw in July ... » read more
Wednesday Sep 28, 2016   
Since April of this year, scheduled maintenance on the Algonquin Pipeline has derated the operational capacity through the Stoney Point compressor station.  As a result, flows from the Marcellus basin into New England have been limited which increases our reliance on imports from Canada in order to meet strong power demand.  In Figure 1, we have ISONE Peak Load on the X-axis (GWs) and Canadian gas imports through the Iroquois pipeline on the Y-axis (MMCF).  The color correlates to the AGT basis spread with green representing and AGT basis ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 27, 2016   
Since the middle of last week there have been a number of natural gas production changes across the Lower 48 states. Going back to last Wednesday, there has been a total drop of .75 BCF. While some areas have increased volumes, the decrease in the East, Gulf and Rockies has amounted to a total reduction of 1.1 BCF. Figure 1 | North American Natural Gas Production Last weeks outages were centered around the Rockies with maintenance on both Kern and CIG pipelines. The Opal and Enterprise processing facilities on Kern River Pipe showed decreased volumes and there was ... » read more
Monday Sep 26, 2016   
The Hunt for Red October is a 1990's movie based on the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States.  This year's 'hunt for red October' is based off a a warm weather front that is in the forecast for the month. This is usually a time for the colder fall-like weather to set in and heating demand starts to be a factor.  So far that does not look to be the case as the weather pattern has shifted into moderate temperatures across the country over the past 3-4 days and will continue on through the first week of October.  A good example of the ... » read more
Friday Sep 23, 2016   
Here at EnergyGPS we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the Texas market – especially wind projects in Texas. We’ve recently been working with some interesting ERCOT data from what is known as the “60-Day Report.” This data file, which is published by ERCOT on a 60-day lag, has tons of information on a generator level. Notably, it has information related to offer curves and dispatch levels. It is a wonderful resource. We’ve worked on a number of Texas Panhandle wind transactions. As many people know, the Panhandle portion of Texas ... » read more
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