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Monday Aug 31, 2015   
This weekend was the annual Hood to Coast relay race/run where teams of 12 gathered themselves in two mini-vans and trekked from Mt Hood (Timberline Lodge) to Seaside, OR.  The expectation was to finish sometime on Saturday and enjoy the nice refreshments and sponsored tents set up along the beach.  As the initial runners made it through Friday without much obstacles when it came to Mother Nature, the person running around 2:00 am Saturday morning was met with severe thunderstorms/lightning, precipitation and gusting winds.  This trend continued ... » read more
Friday Aug 28, 2015   
As Grand Coulee sits at its elevation target of 1277.8 ft, the overall generation on the grid shifted down on Wednesday.  As you can see in Figure 1, the entire shape shifted down with the biggest gap showing up in the later evening hours where the delta topped 1,750 MW.  Looking at the overall heavy load, the day on day change ended up being more like 1,100 MWa . Figure 1 | Total EnergyGPS Hydro Generation - Hourly Yesterday was the second day of the system operators not having the ability to draft water out of storage during the super peak hours, so ... » read more
Thursday Aug 27, 2015   
With California's load soaring and some heat hitting the Portland during the later afternoon hours on Tuesday, Grand Coulee drafted another .7 ft to help balance grid.  This move put them right at their end of August target of 1277.7 ft.  From a MW output standpoint, the heavy load has averaged 12,200 MW on Monday and 12,500 MW on Tuesday with a peak output over 13,000 MW both days. Figure 1 | Grand Coulee Elevation - Daily Starting yesterday, system operators did not draft and it is having an impact on the overall hydro generation on the grid. » read more
Wednesday Aug 26, 2015   
So far this week, the heat in Southern California has not disappointed as Burbank is looking at highs in the upper 99's today and tomorrow.  This is over 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Figure 1 | Burbank Temperatures - Actual vs Forecast From a power load perspective, CAISO has been showing the load increasing since the late last week.  As you can see in Figure 2, the peak CAISO demand is expected to top the 44 GW mark tomorrow and Friday.  This is after it jumped up roughly 3 GW from yesterday to today.  You can also see the ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 25, 2015   
Two weekends ago, the weather forecasts changed dramatically for the Midwest, South and Eastern parts of the country as the 11-15 day period showed a big drop in overall temperatures.  Now that that time period is upon us, the change in temperatures has held true as the Midwest is experiencing chilly weather yesterday and today while Texas is showing their highs lower compared to where they were mid-month.  The West is hanging in there with California showing some heat this week, but by the time we get to September, the forecast is for more normal weather. » read more
Monday Aug 24, 2015   
With Labor Day right around the corner, some school districts are getting a head start on the 2015-2016 school year and starting this week while others are waiting until their traditional after Labor Day start date.  The NFL will be going in its third preseason game over the long weekend and people will be coming home from their final summer trip.  This all sounds like the summer is coming to an end!.  If you look at the current weather pattern across the United States, all indications point towards it is as the likes of ERCOT is showing daytime highs ... » read more
Friday Aug 21, 2015   
With the weekend right around the corner, those of us who live on the West Coast, specifically the Pacific Northwest, have been enjoying the best weather of the summer as the daytime high reached 79 degrees in Portland yesterday and the overnight lows dipped down into the mid 50's.  This type of weather makes going to the coffee shop worthy of the experience, hit a food cart for lunch and have a pint of locally brewed beer while sitting out in the backyard at night.  Down in California, they are experiencing similar weather after the week started out rather ... » read more
Thursday Aug 20, 2015   
With the load coming on in the Pacific Northwest and wind picking up at the same time, the supply demand picture is getting looser and the means to move MW out of the region is vital. Over the next three days, the AC line connecting the Pacific Northwest to Northern California is derated down to 3,300 MWa.  The CAISO portion of the line is going from 3,200 MW down to 2,200 MW for Thursday and Friday. Figure 1 | AC Transmission Forecast - 7 Days What we saw in the CAISO market was the constraint for today, caused major congestion on the line as several MW were ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 19, 2015   
It all started last week Thursday when the EIA weekly storage number (65 bcf) spilled onto the floor.  This was well above market expectations as most people were thinking somewhere in the mid 50's if not lower.  By all accounts, this translated into the market missing it by 1-2 bcf/day.   Figure 1 | EIA Storage Release - 8/13/2015 Prior to the number, the prompt month (September) contract was trading in the upper end of the range ($2.90 ish).  Most supply/demand components were leaning toward the bullish side as well starting with the ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 18, 2015   
We are over halfway though the summer and there has been nothing pointing towards an El Nino type of weather pattern in the Central, East and Southern part of the country as the likes of Texas have been experiencing above normal temperatures over the last two/three weeks. Figure 1 | Houston High/Low Temperatures - Actual vs Forecast The West is the only area that seems to be holding true to the pattern as temperatures continue to be warm across the Pacific Northwest and California.  For example, Portland will be looking at its 26th day (today) of daytime highs ... » read more
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