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Tuesday Oct 24, 2017   
Northeast production volumes have taken a recent turn lower over the past three weeks. Since the last weeks of September to this past weekend the total production coming out of the region has fallen from 25.3 down to 23.6 BCF. This is the reason why our total Lower 48 production has dropped from 75.2 down to 73.2 BCF this month. What has caused this drop in volume? There are ... » read more
Monday Oct 23, 2017   
If you recall, last October was one of the rainiest fall months in the Pacific Northwest has ever seen with several inches falling over a three week period.  Such precipitation brought an onslaught of Westside hydro generation to the grid along with output on the Lower Columbia.  As a result, the Midc power markets saw plenty of downward pressure all month as the ... » read more
Friday Oct 20, 2017   
I try to keep politics out of the newsletters. I’m in the energy business. I’ve lived in Portland, Oregon for 20 years – let’s just say it is a liberal city. I’ve spent a few years of my professional life living in Oklahoma and Texas – let’s just say those are not liberal places. I have friends, colleagues, and clients in the energy ... » read more
Thursday Oct 19, 2017   
SPP has seen very high wind this month and is forecast to reach an all-time high moving into this weekend on Friday and Saturday. Unlike gas and coal units, wind cannot be controlled easily by the plant. Figure 1 shows the wind and thermal stack for SPP. As shown in the chart, the variations in wind are compensated for by thermal units generating more or less during any ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 18, 2017   
On October 12th there was an issue at the Berne compressor on the Tetco pipeline which led to a forced majeure as throughput fell from 1.8 Bcf to 0. The Berne compressor sits in southern PA and stifled flows to the South Central region and resulted in lower overall production volumes.  However there was an unexpected consequence that occurred in a neighboring ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 17, 2017   
We have been following California energy economics for two decades. One the qualities of the market that has stood the test of time is that it is an island. The demand needs of the state far exceed its supply abilities. Thousands of miles of pipelines and transmission facilities have been built over the past 60 years to accommodate the consumers on California Island. This ... » read more
Monday Oct 16, 2017   
Over the past few weeks, the Northeast has seen nothing but red when it comes to the temperature charts as the region has been well above normal.  This trend looks to continue as we head into the back half of October. Figure 1 | NYISO Weather Forecasts - Daily ... » read more
Friday Oct 13, 2017   
As I’m sure the reader can appreciate, each one of these newsletters starts with an empty page. Sometimes it can be a challenge to fill up the page. At other times, it is easy. Sometimes it is fun. Other times it requires more labor. Today’s newsletter is both fun and easy to write. » read more
Thursday Oct 12, 2017   
As PJM continues to ramp up its gas capacity, coal to gas switching has become more elastic. Figure 1 displays the coal to gas switching ratios of 2016 and 2017. The X axis shows the price of Appalachian coal in dollars per mmbtu divided by the price of TETCO M3 gas compared to the percent of gas in the total coal and gas in real time generation. The additional 3 GW of ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 11, 2017   
Along the US/Canadian border there are multiple high voltage power lines which allow for power exchanges between the two countries.  Some of the largest ties run from Quebec into NY (HQ) and New England (Phase I/II) which combine to provide 3,500 MWs of transfer capacity.  Typically, the power flows south over the border as the primarily hydro based power ... » read more
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