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| Wednesday May 18, 2016 | |
| As we move through the back half of May we prepare for a steep jump in load as rising CDDs begin to drive cooling demand across the country. Looking at last year, load increased nearly 80 GWs between today (mid May) to mid/late June. Figure 1| US total load 7 Day Flat Average - GW/day The main question on everyone's mind is how will this load be met? Beginning February of last year we saw a distinct increase in natural gas power burns in comparison to the previous year as weak gas prices and tighter environmental ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 17, 2016 | |
| On Friday May 13th, Columbia Gas Pipeline filed with FERC for the construction and operation of the Mountaineer Xpress Gas Pipeline. The 170 miles of new pipeline will carry 2.7 BCF per day of production out of West Virginia to Columbia Pipelines TCO Pool where it can access several anticipated pipeline expansions that will bring Northeast supplies to the Gulf and Midcontinent markets. It is anticipated that construction will start on this new pipeline in Q1 of 2017 for a 2018 start up date. Figure 1 | Mountaineer Xpress Map Once this 2.7 BCF per day of ... » read more | |
| Monday May 16, 2016 | |
| The sunny blue skies quickly disappeared this weekend in the Pacific Northwest saw plenty of rain hit the region and cooler temperatures. The change in the weather pattern has an impact on the supply/demand components starting with the wind generation. As you can see in Figure 1, the weekend output increased on Saturday but really jumped up on Sunday as the peak output topped the 3,300 MW mark during the morning ramp hours. Figure 1 | BPA Wind Generation - Hourly It still was not as high as last Monday, but quite a bit higher than what we saw during the ... » read more | |
| Friday May 13, 2016 | |
| With the passage of Oregon’s new RPS obligations, it seems like Pacificorp and Portland General are gearing up for a new round of renewable procurement. There is a flurry of activity as developers are dusting off their pipeline assets and transmission positions to see if they can get one more PPA out of their Northwest wind assets in the next few years before the production tax credit expires. The world has changed a bit since the last flurry of activity more than four years ago. Compared to a centralized RTO market, the BPA wind integration and transmission ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 12, 2016 | |
| With temperatures rising across the South Central an West this week, the Northeast is experience the type of weather one would expect in the Spring as Boston is showing highs in the mid/upper 60's. As a result, we have seen a convergence between the Northeast gas markets (Algonquin) and Henry Hub. For example, in early April the Algonquin gas market was strong due to winter-like weather hence carried a $1.10 average premium over the entire month. Up until this week, the spread between Algonquin and the hub was sticking around $0.50, but as we saw for today ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 11, 2016 | |
| Over the course of the week, both California and Texas have been warming up withe former showing Sacramento/Burbank topping the 88 degree mark today and tomorrow. Figure 1 | Sacramento Temperatures - Actual and Forecast The latter is showing Houston's temperatures slightly higher than last week as the highs are in the 88-90 degree range with some humidity. Figure 2 | Houston Temperatures - Actual and Forecast This has led to both ISO's load to increase over the course of the week. For example, CAISO's day on day load forecast shifted the peak demand ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 10, 2016 | |
| On April 29th there was a rupture on the Texas Eastern Pipeline just east of Pittsburgh near the Delmont compressor station. At the time the pipe was moving 1.4 BCF per day from Western Pennsylvania to the Mid Atlantic. This explosion knocked out a large amount of supply to the most populous part of North America. Flows through the Delmont station went to zero. Assuming that the rupture would lead to shut-ins in Western Pennsylvania and the need for the East Coast to draw molecules from the Gulf via the Transco Pipeline, the front month NYMEX contract jumped from ... » read more | |
| Monday May 9, 2016 | |
| Over the next few days, both Northern and Southern California are looking at above normal temperatures once again with Sacramento showing highs in the upper 80's/low 90's by Wednesday/Thursday and Burbank in the mid/upper 80's for the same time period. Figure 1 | Sacramento Temperatures - Actual and Forecast As you can see in Figure 1, the warmer temperature fits the pattern since the beginning of April, where we have a few days of moderate temperatures only to give way to above normal for a 4-5 day period. From a load perspective, California is calling for higher ... » read more | |
| Friday May 6, 2016 | |
| We’ve been having some fun lately digging around the CAISO solar production and price data. The grid and corresponding price action is changing so quickly – each month brings new data and new insights as the solar penetration rate continues to grow. In this newsletter we take a look at what is happening to the real-time price distributions and look into some things that may be causing these changes. We start with a monthly view of the distribution of SP15 real-time prices. We have created three bins for the prices: Negative – This includes all ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 5, 2016 | |
| The natural gas market has steadily increased over the the last two days with Henry Hub's June contract trading up 6 cents to close at $2.14 yesterday. Part of the bullish market sentiment is driven by strong power burns which have sat around 26 BCF/day to start the month. Figure 1 | North American Power Burns - BCF/day This is surprising considering that total power burns are averaging 1.5 BCF above last May's average yet net load is down compared to last May. See yesterday's newsletter "On Big Turbine" for a robust ... » read more | |
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