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Monday Jun 5, 2017   
The day after the June Nymex contract rolled off the board, the July contract moved up roughly $0.07 to settle $3.31. This move up was on a 11-15 day forecast that was showing above normal temperatures across the Midwest and Eastern portion of the country.  In fact, this was right around the time the CFTC Commitment of Traders was at its all-time high for the large ... » read more
Friday Jun 2, 2017   
This week the CAISO officially announced the addition of two new energy imbalance market (EIM) participants – Powerex and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). These two announcements are a big deal. While Pacificorp receives full credit as the first-mover in the EIM, the addition of Powerex and LADWP takes the EIM to a whole new level. The devil is in ... » read more
Thursday Jun 1, 2017   
We have been writing about the water year in the Pacific Northwest for some time.  The major theme was tied to the Snake River basin getting plenty of snow early while the Above Grand Coulee basin lagged.  That was until February when the precipitation pattern dumped a tremendous amount of snow in Upper Washington, parts of Montana and British Columbia.  This ... » read more
Wednesday May 31, 2017   
Through the majority of this spring the grid was tormented by unusually large amount of nuclear outages.  The total amount of generation offline peaked at a little more than 25 GWs for the end of April which marked the highest outage total since 2013.  Through the back half of May we have seen a rush of units return to the grid as nearly 10 GWs of ... » read more
Tuesday May 30, 2017   
Weeks ago we made note of the increased polarization of the different reporting sectors in the natural gas market as depicted by the Commodity Futures trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report. Prior to this past week, we saw a series of increases in the Money Managers position taking it to multi year highs and by far the largest position outside of the Swap Dealers. The Money ... » read more
Friday May 26, 2017   
On Wednesday of this week, I spoke at a Northwest Power Market conference here in Portland, where the theme was just that "Northwest Power Markets: Mapping the Road Ahead".  My panel was the first to go, where the theme was 'Drivers of Change'.  As we all know, the topic of conversation these days is not about what is going on in the Pacific Northwest ... » read more
Thursday May 25, 2017   
Earlier in the week, areas around Portland topped the 90 degree mark as a mini heat wave moved through the region.  This was long overdue as the entire spring seemed to give us below normal temperatures and plenty of precipitation.  In fact, the 48 hour stretch of nice weather was just enough time for the natives to complain that is was actually too hot. » read more
Wednesday May 24, 2017   
Since May 5th we have continued to see Zone A congestion over the majority of the on-peak hours.  The sudden resurgence of Zone A congestion was likely the result of NYISO switching from winter to summer thermal ratings for transmission ties in the Niagara/Buffalo region.  Figure 1 | Niagara - Packard vs Packard ... » read more
Tuesday May 23, 2017   
Each day we are tasked with balancing the different supply and demand components across the Lower 48 in an effort to track the storage activity. It is a monumental task that utilizes an enormous amount of data from pipelines and storage operators. One of the components we compile data for is tied to the amount of gas that gets imported from Canada. We break the pipeline ... » read more
Monday May 22, 2017   
Now that we are in the back half of May and June is right around the corner, the power loads are going to come into play across the Lower 48.  This will directly tie into the power burn component of the Natural Gas supply/demand balance.  In recent years, the influx of Renewables across the country has made us look at the power burns from a net load perspective. » read more
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