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Thursday Oct 27, 2016   
This week we are seeing the slow transition from summer/fall temperatures into winter space heating in the Northeast part of the United States and Eastern Canada. As heating degree days start to accumulate across this area, residential and commercial natural gas demand will start to dominate the daily supply/ demand balancing.  Looking at some of the pipeline data scrapes this week we noticed several storage caverns starting to withdraw volumes for exactly this purpose. But noting we are still 6 days away from the start of the natural gas withdrawal season, we ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 26, 2016   
The first real cold front has moved into New England driving temperatures down across the region.  As a result we have seen a substantial increase in res/com demand and an appropriate reaction from the gas market with AGT settling well above Henry Hub thus far this week. In figure 1 below, we have charted the total res/com sendouts for the Algonquin pipeline on the Y-axis and the average Boston temperatures on the X-axis. The data includes all days in October – March for 2012- 2016. The orange dots represent the last 15 days and blue is historical data. » read more
Tuesday Oct 25, 2016   
Since October 3rd, 2016 we have seen .340 BCF of firm transport sign up with the last two weeks having the biggest impact. Figure 1 | TCPL Contracting from 10/3/2016 to 10/24/2016 The majority of the added firm transport is apart of a one-year strip from this October to October 2017.  As you can see in the table above, there was a transaction that extended out further (.0138 BCF), which was a three year deal.  We mention this due to the fact there has been talks about TCPL wanting to sign up 10 year deals, but we have yet to see any movement on that front ... » read more
Monday Oct 24, 2016   
Over the past 6 weeks, Texas weather has been coming in quite a bit above normal with the Houston metro area staring at highs in the 90's as late as this past Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday saw temperatures drop and the forecast is calling for highs in the mid 80's this week. Figure 1 | Houston Temperatures - Actual vs. Forecast This big drop in temperatures led to the net load in ERCOT to shift down, which then put downward pressure on the demand for natural gas used to generate power.  As a result, the  spread between Houston Ship Channel (HSC) and ... » read more
Friday Oct 21, 2016   
We have done a lot of analysis over the last couple of years related to the CAISO EIM and the possibility of expanding the CAISO into a regional organization. There are plenty of studies estimating the benefits associated with expanding the CAISO in some capacity. For the most part these studies show benefits for both the CAISO and the balancing authorities that opt to join the CAISO. While we don’t always agree with the modeling assumptions or the magnitude of the benefits in these studies, we generally think that centralized markets work better and are more ... » read more
Thursday Oct 20, 2016   
Last Friday night, the routine of shuttling the kids to their respective 'futsal' training sessions (Braziallian type of soccer) when things got interesting as the calm before the storm arose and slammed Portland proper with a massive amount of rain that lasted a good 35-40 minutes.  In fact, earlier that day tornados touched down in Manzanita, OR which is a small coastal town.  The local news showed extensive damage along the main road leading to the Pacific Ocean.  The weather forecasters were expecting tornado like winds to move through the ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 19, 2016   
As move our way though October temperatures begin to decline as fall conditions set in across the US. Typically when we enter the shoulder months power burns hit their lows as temperatures gravitate toward that happy medium in which there is little cooling or heating demand.   However, power burns have remained strong through the first half of the month with October MTD averaging 26.7 BCF/d.  Temperatures have remained above average across the majority of the country, inflating load and sustaining strong burns. However, there are other factors at ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 18, 2016   
Back on April 29th of this year, there was a rupture on the Texas Eastern Pipeline just east of Pittsburgh near the Delmont compressor station. Flows through the compressor dropped from 1.3 BCF to zero when the incident occurred. This line, part of the Penn-Jersey Pipeline system, is crucial for delivering production from Western Pennsylvania to the population centers along the East coast. Spectra, owner of the Texas Eastern Pipeline immediately put into action an inspection and restoration plant to get this critical gas artery back into operation before the winter ... » read more
Monday Oct 17, 2016   
Since the first of the month, the weather in Calgary, AB has been well below normal for this time of year.  In fact, we have seen over half the days this month recording double digit below normal average temperatures. Figure 1 | Temperatures Across Canada - Actual and Forecast, Delta Deviations from Normal You can see in the graph above, there is quite a difference in what is going on in Western Canada (Calgary) compared to the Eastern side (Toronto).  This type of deviation from normal in Calgary and other parts of Alberta has impacted the demand in the ... » read more
Friday Oct 14, 2016   
I recently took a trip to Houston to discuss renewable opportunities with some wholesale folks at banks and power marketing companies. While I was there I spent some time with a former colleague who now works for a firm that, among other things, invests in distressed energy companies. This friend asked me the following question: “With the massive, unprecedented build out of the US renewable fleet, how has so much capital been destroyed in the renewable energy sector?” I didn’t have a ready answer to this simple question. I’ve been walking ... » read more
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