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| Tuesday Dec 10, 2019 | |
| Oh how the sentiment for natural gas can change so quick. it was only four weeks ago when the prompt futures had risen to $2.86. The EIA inventory report had come out with a large withdrawal of 94 BCF indicating an early start to the heating season. The forecast was calling for more below normal weather. Due to the polar event we had at the turn of the month, freeze ins had cut back production from 94.7 to 93 BCF. This was exactly what the balancing needed to clear out the ongoing year on year storage inventory surplus of .5 TCF. It did not take long to flip all of those expectations on their heads. Production not only recovered its losses but posted new record highs by the middle of the month of over 95 BCF. The weather turned from a early bout of arctic cold to what now looks like an 8 ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 9, 2019 | |
| Over the past couple of weeks, California has been hit with some heavy duty storms, including this past weekend in the Bay Area where some of the streets in the city were flooded. This is not uncommon but sometimes goes unrecognized to how it impacts the overall power grid. The first thing that occurs is on the demand side as the sunshine goes away and people are left with some dampness to their day. If it is anything like the Pacific Northwest, the moment you get a little wet from the rain and it is cold outside, the body has a chill to it that takes a long time to get out of your system. The perfect example of this is standing outside at a soccer complex in a light drizzle for 2-3 hours as you watch a match then wait around for the coaches to talk to the players ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 6, 2019 | |
| It’s been over 2 months since the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) grabbed the mic and declared that it’s leading the charge to move the Pacific Northwest power industry to a common framework that will assure resource adequacy. In our October article, A Resource Adequacy Paradigm for the Pacific Northwest, EnergyGPS provides an overview of resource adequacy with a focus on the PNW resource adequacy problem. The article outlines the need for providing and adequate contracting and market mechanisms to ensure regional adequacy possible at a reasonable cost. Our blog today looks at one aspect of the problem, measuring the capacity value of wind. But first, an update. No pun intended but the NWPP has gone “dark “on the RA topic. All we ... » read more | |
| Thursday Dec 5, 2019 | |
| Over the past couple of days, the California grid lost some of its renewable energy as the cloud cover wiped several gigawatts of solar during the middle of the day. As a result of such an event, the CAISO grid quickly priced itself at a level that warranted natrual gas units to set price as they were the marginal unit during the middle of the day. We did see the Pacific Northwest adjust accordingly to the price signal as the Paci transmission line filled up the entire day instead of shaping itself to the inverse of the typical solar profile. Figure 1 | CAISO Day-Ahead Paci Transmission Flows - Hourly If you scroll down to the third pane, you wcan see that the Desert Southwest did not track with the Paci flows as the midday remained at the lower levels while the evening ramp ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 4, 2019 | |
| Over the past few days, we have seen some precipitation in Southern California. As a result, the solar profile within the CAISO footprint shifted quite a bit lower compared to what it looked like prior to the holiday weekend. If you look at the chart in Figure 1, you can definitely see the shift lower this past Saturday and Sunday along with Tuesday's results. If you compare actual peak numbers from the 26th of November to December 3rd, the delta is a staggering 4 GW (7.0 GW minus 3.0 GW). Figure 1 | CAISO Hourly Solar Profile With such a change, it is not surprising that the grid is needing more thermal supply and imports from the Pacific Norhwest during the middle of the day and less megawatts as flex ramp. The graph below illustrates the change in flows on ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 3, 2019 | |
| We are now one month into the withdrawal season but it does not seem that way when you start to look at the storage inventory. Despite some early winter weather and the decline in natural gas prices the EIA inventory continues to expand the year on year storage surplus. Since the beginning of November the surplus has moved from 530 to 548 BCF as of last week. This week's report is expected to add another 20 to that total. It is very feasible to see how we could get to 600 BCF in the coming weeks. Without any above normal heating load through the middle of the month the price outlook for the rest of the year looks dim. Figure 1 | EIA Total Storage Inventory for the Lower 48 In the next two weeks there are only three days where the Lower 48 heating degree day total will be ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 2, 2019 | |
| California always has a storyline when it comes to the energy sector. In years past, you can travel as deep as the Energy Crisis to that of both SONGS nuclear units falling on defected rods and ultimately being retired. Between each of the mentioned events was the aspect of the state shifting to a more green environment as it put in play their renewable energy policy and standards for the forseeable future. This started the wind buildout in both the Pacific Northwest along with specific sections within the CAISO footprint. It did not take long for the solar entities to join in on the game as the utility-scaled and behind the meter movements were apart of the daily conversation. This led to several transmission upgrades that would be needed to make sure the ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 27, 2019 | |
| Over the summer, we spent a lot of time talking about the bucket of hours where the power demand was quite high and the wind output within the ERCOT footprint was low. When you threw in the increasing solar profile within the ISO footprint, you started to see some resemblence of the CAISO energy market where the evening ramp period was quite steep to which resources become quite limited when it comes to balancing the grid. In the ERCOT market, the ORDC calculation stimulates the price action as the Operating Reserves (OR) is calibrated off a Demand Curve (DC) so when reserves get low, the price signal skyrockets up to help incentivize new build capacity within the grid. This will be a common occurrence again this upcoming summer as the operators of the grid have made ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 26, 2019 | |
| Coming into this winter, SoCal Gas was expected to have a much easier time balancing the system than in winters past. In the aftermath of the Aliso Canyon storage leak and the rupture of line 235, the gas balancing in Southern California has had to navigate a constant threat of reliability issues. A number of steps have been taken since last summer to avoid the pitfalls from last year. SoCal Gas has been able complete several pipeline repairs which have allowed the return of lines 4000 and 235 to service. They have also filled the storage capacity on the system from last year's draw down. And in a big surprise, the California Public Utility Commission has loosened the usage rules for the beleaguered Aliso Canyon storage cavern along with a reduced Operational Flow Order ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 25, 2019 | |
| The Thanksgiving holiday seems to be taking a backseat to both Halloween and Christmas as the stores move right from pumpkins to Christmas decorations. That does not seem right in my book as the Thanksgiving holiday is one of my personal favorites as you get to just hang out and eat good food, watch some football and have the next three days off where you can spend it with family and friends. It is on the weekend when you can actually spend the time getting the Christmas lights out of the rubber containers in the garage and hang them up on the roof's edge in a way that lights up the neighborhood. Now the one thing that wil take a little joy out of the long weekend is the mere fact that Mother Nature is going to be delivering some cold turkey to many parts of the country. ... » read more | |
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