Alberta is closing out October under unusually mild conditions, with Mother Nature in no hurry to bring winter. Most of the province enjoyed temperatures near or above seasonal norms, with only brief cold interruptions. This extended warmth has effectively delayed the onset of true heating-season demand, setting a calm tone as the gas market moves into November.

Forecasts for the first half of November continue to favor mild and above-normal readings across Alberta and British Columbia. Daily highs in the 40s°F range and limited overnight freezes suggest the region’s warm streak will persist. The result: another stretch of moderate system demand and a postponed seasonal shift that market participants are closely watching.

Figure 1 | AESO Weather Forecast, November 3-November 13 – AG2 Trader

On the fundamentals side, supply has strengthened through steady field activity, with Nova receipts climbing to the 14.7 Bcf/d range, while demand has held steady around 6.2-6.4 Bcf/d. Storage injections have remained active through much of October, and LNG-related flows are showing encouraging signs of growth, hinting at a gradual ramp-up in export demand.

Figure 2 | Alberta Daily Demand and Supply Components and Prices

Yet despite these developments, Alberta’s gas market faces an increasingly tight storage situation. Inventories have topped 471 Bcf—surpassing provincial capacity and last year’s record highs. With mild weather still prevailing and storage effectively maxed out, the market’s next moves hinge on when true winter conditions finally arrive. Until then, AECO prices may find themselves caught between strong supply, muted demand, and the promise of emerging LNG exports.

Figure 3 | AECO Daily Storage Summary

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