While so often the focus in the energy space is rightfully placed on renewables, this summer and early fall has been witness to a resurgence of the oft-maligned coal generator in markets across the country. In our latest Special Report we focus on one market in particular, SPP, where coal numbers over the last month have impressed compared to recent years.

The SPP region wrapped up October under a spell of cooler-than-normal temperatures, with readings across key cities such as Omaha, Wichita, and Oklahoma City dipping into the 30s and low 40s for morning lows, while highs struggled to reach the mid-50s through November 1st. This shift briefly brought heating demand into play, shaping the load profile into the classic double-hump pattern typical of colder days. The cool spell capped off what had otherwise been a notably warm October, when above-normal temperatures dominated much of the month and kept regional demand somewhat elevated. Looking ahead, forecasts point to a decisive warm-up, with highs expected to climb into the upper 60s to mid-70s—and even the low 80s in some areas—across much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, signaling a return to above-normal conditions. Even northern areas such as Bismarck and Fargo will see highs in the 50s, marking a substantial temperature shift from late October’s chill. This pattern of sustained warmth is expected to persist through at least mid-November (aside from a brief cold shot around November 9–10), suggesting that heating demand will remain subdued across much of the region, maintaining the broader trend of mild fall conditions that has characterized the season so far.  The figure below plots daily average HDDs for North and South SPP in October and November over the past nine years.  For November 2025, the fifteen-day forecast is incorporated (for a total of 18 days) and only the first 18 days of November in previous years is included so that we can compare like to like.  Just like in October, this November is expected to see below average HDDs over its first two-and-a-half weeks for both North and South SPP.

Figure 1 | Average Daily HDDs by Month – Partial November 

The warmer temperature outlook discussed above is reflected clearly in the power market fundamentals, as seen in this multi-year comparison of hourly load and generation patterns in the below. The graph highlights that October 2025 ( 2025 in green line) has experienced higher system load levels compared with the same period in 2023 and 2024, a direct result of the persistent above-normal temperatures extending late into the fall season. Warmer conditions have shifted the typical hourly load trend. Meanwhile, wind generation and net load have largely tracked within the historical range.

On the supply side, natural gas generation has remained steady and closely aligned with the past two years. In contrast, coal generation has shown a more noticeable uptick in 2025, especially during the morning ramp hours, where it has consistently outpaced prior years. This suggests coal units have been leaned on more heavily to meet the net load left after the wind output. Despite the stable renewable support, the elevated demand level has reinforced coal’s role as a key balancing source this fall, with generation levels exceeding both 2023 and 2024 during October.

Figure 2 | SPP 12x24 Average Hourly Load and Generation by Resource 

Renewables are only one slice of the supply stack and thermal generation is often called upon to fill in when the sun fails to shine or the wind fails to blow.  The commentary in the Special Report mentioned above is part of the Energy GPS Subscription product offerings where we bring insight into all the elements of energy supply.  Follow the link above to learn more or reach out to us at [email protected].