Summer arrived a few weeks early in the Midwest. A heat wave is moving across the middle of the country this week, bringing above-normal temperatures to MISO. The figure below shows the average Midwest temperature forecasts from the end of May to yesterday’s forecast on the far right which shows temperatures through June 23^rd. Red and orange represent above normal temperatures while blue shows below normal temperatures with the darkest colors on the days expecting more extreme temperatures. The heat this week has been percolating since last month. By the beginning of June, the heat was expected to last for over a week and a half with the hottest days expecting average temperatures over 76 degrees F. In more recent forecasts, the end of the heat tapered off, but temperatures for this week intensified. Tomorrow is now expected to average over 80 degrees F, the hottest of the forecast. By this weekend, temperatures are expected to return to normal and then drop below normal by next week.

Figure 1 | Average Midwest Temperature Matrix

The weather gives MISO a first glimpse of how summer-like conditions and structural demand growth will mix this summer. System demand peaked at over 100 GW for the first time since January on Monday night. Demand is forecasted to be even higher tonight, peaking at over 115 GW. Most of that demand comes from Central MISO where the heat is centered. Both North and South MISO are also seeing elevated demand. South MISO is currently experiencing warm temperatures, but not above seasonal normals. This is just the first round of elevated demand for the summer season. July and August are sure to bring even hotter temperatures and higher load levels. If you want to stay on top of this round of warmth and the subsequent rounds of heat this summer, make sure to subscribe to Energy GPS’s MISO power market flashes.

Figure 2 | MISO Load Forecasts by Region

Contact Us

Follow us on LinkedIn