Since the final days of November, a sustained cold pattern has dominated much of the country east of the Cascades, cementing an early start to winter across the Central and Northern regions. Repeated intrusions of Arctic air kept temperatures suppressed well into the first half of December, driving elevated heating demand from the Northern Plains through the Midwest and into parts of the South Central corridor. The lack of meaningful breaks in the cold reinforced stronger-than-normal load profiles, setting the stage for tighter power and gas fundamentals as winter conditions took hold earlier than usual.

Figure 1 | South Central Temperature Forecast – AG2 Trader

That pattern, however, has been reversing course. Forecasts point to a pronounced warm-up building across the South Central region heading into Christmas week, with temperatures projected to run well above normal across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Daytime highs climbing into the 70s and low 80s mark a sharp departure from early-December conditions, effectively reintroducing a fall-like setup late in the month. This shift is expected to ease heating demand and soften load, particularly during the morning ramp, as markets transition away from the earlier cold-driven stress.

Figure 2 | 12x24 Profile, South Central

Despite the emerging warmth, December 2025 has already left its imprint on the power system. Load profiles across the South Central region are running relatively stronger than prior years, with more pronounced morning and evening peaks translating into elevated net load during critical ramp hours. This dynamic fed directly into higher gas-fired generation needs, pushing South Central power burns sharply higher in early December, with levels climbing toward 12 Bcf/d. The move highlights just how sensitive the system remains to temperature swings during the shoulder-to-winter transition, even in a grid increasingly shaped by renewables.

Figure 3 | 7 Day South Central Moving Average PowerBurns and Henry Hub Daily Prices

Thermal dispatch dynamics further underscored that sensitivity. During periods of peak stress this December, coal stepped back into a dominant reliability role, particularly in MISO and SPP, where coal-to-gas generation ratios surged as demand tightened and gas prices strengthened. As Henry Hub spot prices firmed, coal gained an economic edge, redistributing marginal gas molecules away from the power stack. With warmer conditions now taking hold, spot prices and the January forward strip have begun to ease, signaling a calmer finish to the month—but the past few weeks serve as a clear reminder of how quickly market fundamentals can shift.

To stay ahead of these fast-moving power, and gas market dynamics, timely insight is everything. Our market packages are built to help you track these inflection points in real time, connecting weather shifts, demand behavior, supply response, and pricing impacts before they show up on the screen. We encourage readers to explore our offerings and stay plugged into the insights that matter most as winter continues to unfold.

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