Here in Portland, on-and-off rainy weather has settled over the valley. In just the last week we have had downpours, clear blue skies, and a double rainbow. Zooming out, the Pacific northwest is likewise looking forward to a mixed bag of winter precipitation. This has us hard at work, considering what this means for upcoming hydro generation in the Columbia basin.

Figure 1 | NWRFC 120 day Volume (% of Average) Forecast

This forecast estimates water volumes for point across the PNW in the next 120 days. This gives us a view into expected precipitation and hydro operations across the Columbia, North America’s most energy-rich river basin. Above, we see volumes coded by color in terms of percent of average. Predicted volumes paint a picture of varied conditions, with healthy river flows in some locations but very weak flows in others. Conditions look poor in eastern Washington an the northern Idaho Rockies. In the upper snake, forecast flows are at or above average. 

Figure 2 | Columbia Generation Forecast (MWh)

When it comes to power generation, river flow forecasts never give you the complete picture. Although important, they can only be understood in the context of dam operations. For example, precipitation around the upper Snake holds much more than at the lower Columbia, as the former has a long string of dams to run through before it hits the ocean. Other factors, like fish spill requirements, complicate forecasts. These requirements vary by year and month and shift how much of the total volume can be used for generation. Above, we show our forecast for hydro generation across the Columbia. Our model builds off the NWRFC and adds to it market dynamics like those mentioned above.

Through our Energy GPS West Hydro Sub-Package (Enterprise – West Power), we give regularly updated forecasts and written content to keep our readers up to date on the state of the West’s hydro landscape. For more information on how to incorporate such a package into your daily discussions, one can reach out via the Contact Us form on the Energy GPS website (under About Us) or email us at [email protected].