Colder temperatures moving into the South Central U.S. since the final week of November through the first week of December have elevated power demand, particularly during early-morning light-load hours and the morning/evening ramp periods. Growing electrification, through mini-split units, electric furnaces, and supplemental electric heating, continues to shift winter load patterns away from traditional thermal units. With renewables gaining a larger footprint across ERCOT, SPP, and MISO-South, system operators rely more heavily on net load (demand minus wind and solar) to understand grid dynamics and anticipate volatility.

As temperatures fall sharply across the Plains and major Texas metros, the regional hourly load shape is expected to transition into a “double-hump” pattern beginning December 1, reflecting stronger morning and evening ramp periods. Load growth across the South Central footprint will amplify the impact of this cold spell, producing widespread increases in demand. Forecast temperature tables and net-load projections reinforce that colder weather will materially reshape system needs during this period.

Figure 1 | ERCOT 12x24 Load and Generation Profiles

Wind volatility remains a defining feature in SPP, where output is expected to swing widely throughout this first week of December ranging between the upper single digits and low 10’s GW on average. These fluctuations will trigger curtailments during high-wind/low-load hours and require more thermal generation as winds drop while demand rises. ERCOT, meanwhile, continues to benefit from rapid solar growth and expanding battery capacity, both of which are helping offset load increases tied to data centers and population growth. Monthly 12x24 profiles highlight how solar, wind, and storage are reshaping hourly system behavior, while natural-gas generation shows less year-over-year growth despite escalating demand.

Figure 2 | 7-Day Moving Average South Central Load, Net Load and Power burns

With significant swings expected in net load over the next 10 days, monitoring power burns—especially natural-gas demand for power generation—will be crucial heading into Q1-2026. The South Central region’s load, net-load, and burn profiles suggest that the ongoing cold pattern, combined with renewable intermittency and load growth, will create a dynamic operational environment for generators and grid operators alike.

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