Alberta is in the middle of a bitter cold streak that’s pushing demand to new heights. In last Wednesday’s blog, we wrote about the new record level of demand set in Alberta on Thursday, December 11^th. It left the previous record of 12, 384 MW far behind and soared to 12,785 MW. The following week offered a brief reprieve from the below-normal temperatures, but demand levels continued to come in strong. The figure below shows average Alberta temperature forecasts from each day going back to December 9^th. The newest forecast is on the far right, showing expected average temperatures through the first 6 days of January 2026. Moving left to right shows how the forecasts have evolved. Average temperatures on the 11^th came in just under the 0-degree F mark. Then last week, averages temperatures moved solidly into the positives. Over this weekend, temperatures fell back to well below normal. The province continues to deal with the double impact of extreme cold and structural load growth with the rest of the holiday week expecting more frigid temperatures.

Figure 1 | Alberta Temperature Matrix

Despite the warmer temperatures last week, demand continued to impress. The figure below shows forecasted and actual Alberta load. The previous record load of 12,384 MW is displayed as the thick dotted reference line. Starting on the 11^th, six out of the next 12 days saw a peak load level above the January record. Despite the even colder temperatures Monday night, the near 12.8 GW record from the 11^th is still standing, but it’s not clear it will last through the end of this winter. Last week, the grid was able to handle the extra demand with a good amount of wind and a healthy thermal stack. Volatility started to pop up over the weekend as wind generation dropped low on Sunday night. Monday’s pool prices came close to cap even as demand came in under forecast, ultimately reaching around 12.5 GW.

Figure 2 | AESO Market Summary – Actuals and Forecast (Dec. 11 - 22, 2025)

Wind generation is expected to be stronger for the rest of week, but the chance for volatility remains, especially as the number of very cold days continues to increase. To stay on top of this winter weather, make sure to subscribe to our daily AESO Supply Demand dashboard and review our AESO power market flashes.

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