The recently energized 1.25 GWa Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) line from Canada to NYC was built out of view; buried underground or trenched into the sediments of Lake Champlain and the Hudson River running over 300 miles before popping out of the water in Astoria, Queens. As invisible as it physically is to the eye, so too are any power flows this month that might be moving from Canada to NYC.  Accompanied by much fanfare, it operated for two days at 75% of its capacity at the beginning of June. With less fanfare, it has largely been inactive ever since.  In contrast, the Northeast Clean Energy Connector (NECEC), completed at a similar time and at a similar capacity, has delivered steady supply to New England this month. In numerous articles and Northeast Market Flashes we have questioned if Hydro Quebec (HQ) has enough excess power above its own needs to export power to NYC 300 miles to the south. The multi-year drought that has afflicted Quebec since 2023 appears to be improving moderately through the first six months of 2026, however the load growth conditions, including significant datacenter growth, have strained HQ’s resources. Further, HQ has made it clear that their path to increased production of carbon-free power is through increased development of wind power, rather than a dramatic expansion of hydropower. This will take time.

In a NE Market Flash released on June 3^rd, we noted that in its first two days of operation, HQ was drawing more power on the NYISO Chateauguay tie near Massena NY into HQ to make up for the power it is now exporting on CHPE. It appeared largely to be a wheel of upstate New York power for delivery into downstate New York. After a few trial runs in May and then those first two days of operation in June, the line quickly ceased operating. Figure 1 shows average monthly hourly flows on the NYISO HQ Chateauguay and CHPE ties in the upper two panes and the ISONE HQ Phase 2 and NECEC ties on the bottom two panes.

Figure 1 | Average Monthly and Hourly Flows on HQ Ties into NYISO and ISONE

The data shows that NYISO exports to HQ on the Chateauguay tie have increased throughout all of 2026 (shown in red) and have especially deepened in June to close to 0.9 GWa.  CHPE flows show a low average number which hides the fact that it operated briefly in early June and since largely been dormant. The bottom two panes show flows between HQ and ISONE on the Phase 2 line and NECEC.  Phase 2, like Chateauguay, has existed for years and similarly has been increasingly used to export power to HQ in 2026. The NECEC line, however, unlike CHPE, has been actively importing power into ISONE at a steady pace, typically 1.1 GWa most days. The question arises then why move power into ISONE but not into NYISO, where it can deliver directly into NYC.

We see below in Figure 2 that price of the delivered market is not the determinant. Daily average LMPs for NYC and ISONE for June 2026 are shown in the top pane, and they largely track similarly, with some daily variation between them. The bottom pane shows CHPE flows into NYISO. On the four days when any significant power moved, the NYISO (NYC) price was lower than the ISONE price.

Figure 2 | NYC and ISONE LMPs and CHPE Imports into NYISO in June 2026

The bottom line is that Quebec is still short on power relative to the commitments made when these lines were first planned. Figure 3 shows that June 2026 average HQ hydro generation is well below prior year levels, although slightly above June 2025.  Compared to June 2021, this year is 4.7 GW less, on average.

Figure 3 | HQ Average Monthly Hydro Generation (MW)

We note that CHPE is now participating in the NYISO Capacity Market for NYC for July.  With this entry into the capacity market, CHPE may begin in July to move power more regularly or simply operate on standby to meet its capacity requirement. With warm weather forecast for NYC in the early days of July, we will be paying close attention to how the line operates in the coming days.  

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