Mother Nature has been firmly in control across the SPP footprint this month, delivering a streak of well-above-normal temperatures that continues to dominate the 9–10 day outlook. The board shows widespread daytime highs in the 50s and 60s, with even typically colder northern cities such as Bismarck, Fargo, and Sioux Falls holding in the 40s–50s through much of next week—significant warmth for late November. Across the central and southern corridor, places like Wichita, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Amarillo consistently sit in the mid-50s to mid-60s, with overnight lows rarely approaching levels that would normally drive early-winter heating demand. This prolonged warm anomaly has kept systemwide load suppressed and has shaped the balancing dynamics throughout November, especially during early morning and evening hours when colder air would typically generate stronger ramps.

However, a meaningful change is finally on the horizon. Beginning around November 27, temperatures are projected to dip toward more seasonable territory, with northern states sliding into the 20s–30s and the central and southern portions of SPP cooling into the 30s–40s. This transition marks the first real shift toward early-winter conditions and will have direct implications for both the supply and demand sides of the equation—from heating load recovery to potential changes in wind output, gas burn, and net-load behavior. In this blog, we will explore how this unusually warm fall has shaped system fundamentals so far, and what the upcoming cooldown may mean for SPP as we close out November and head into December.

Figure 1 | SPP Weather Forecast, Nov 17-Dec 1 – AG2 Trader

Looking at the 12-month by 24-hour profile, one trend stands out clearly: coal generation in 2025 (green line) has been consistently stronger than both 2024 and 2023, particularly through the fall shoulder season. This pattern aligns with what we observed in October, where higher net load—driven partly by lingering warmth and strong demand—created more room for coal units to run deeper into their daily dispatch stacks. Across nearly every month, but especially in September, October, and early November, the green coal trace sits noticeably above prior years during the morning and evening ramps. The result is a more pronounced coal footprint in 2025’s daily operations, reinforcing how both weather patterns and renewable variability have impacted the balancing dynamics this fall.

Figure 2 | 12x24 SPP Profile

The daily dashboard reinforces just how unseasonal the current demand pattern has been across SPP. Instead of the classic winter double-peak profile (a sharp morning ramp driven by cold starts followed by a stronger evening rebound) load is still behaving like a fall system, with smoother, flatter curves and much weaker morning peaks. Day after day, demand holds in the low–mid 30s on a peak level, a signature of persistently warm temperatures suppressing heating load. But this pattern won’t last much longer: the 10–15 day outlook shows a meaningful cooldown that should pull load back into a more winter-like shape as colder air finally returns.

On the supply side, wind output is projected to be relatively modest, especially compared to the large surges seen earlier this month. As wind eases off through the back half of November, net load remains elevated, consistently pushing into the mid-20s to low-30s range across most days on the board. This tighter supply-demand setup increases the call on thermal fleets, and given recent dispatch trends, we are likely to see more natural gas displacement and coal continuing to dominate the thermal supply. With weaker wind and return of heating demand on the horizon, the balancing environment is poised to shift quickly as we move into the last stretch of November.

Figure 3 | SPP Daily Profile

To follow our real-time reporting on power fundamentals, renewable trends, and natural gas market dynamics, you can subscribe to any of our analytics packages or reach out directly at [email protected] for more information. Stay connected for daily insights that keep you ahead of the market.

Contact Us

Follow us on LinkedIn