At EGPS, we keep our audience fully informed—not only through our Morning Reports, Monthly and Quarterly publications, but also through our Weekly Market Reports, which arrive in your inbox every weekend. These updates provide a clear snapshot of how the market evolved over the past several days and highlight what to watch as the new week takes shape. In last week’s report, we highlighted the market’s sensitivity to shifting weather expectations—an influence that continues to shape market sentiment as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday stretch.

Over the weekend, the focus remained on the upcoming coldest weather pattern of the season for the Lower 48. Despite the anticipated drop in temperatures, front-month pricing eased slightly, as traders continue to navigate changing weather runs and the timing of the colder push. The latest 15-day outlook shows a widespread cold pattern developing right as holiday travel begins, expanding from the Midwest and East into the Plains and South Central, with the West joining through early next week. This more synchronized evolution stands in contrast to the brief cold spell seen earlier this month and will be a key driver as December approaches.

Figure 1 | Forecasted HDD Changes from Sat to Mon November 24

LNG activity strengthened as nominations climbed back toward recent highs, led by incremental gains at Sabine and stable flows at Freeport after last week’s hiccup. Plaquemines continues to advance consistently, delivering steady feedgas, while Golden Pass remains the next major project to watch as it approaches its late-2025/early-2026 timeline. On the domestic side, both production and power burns will receive increased attention in the coming weeks. While current weather projections do not yet point to freeze-off risks, colder systems can shift quickly. Power burns remain slightly below last year due to rising renewable penetration and steady coal performance, while regions like PJM continue to experience notable load growth tied to data-center expansion.

Figure 2 | LNG Sendouts by Location

Out West, California saw firm demand and fluctuating congestion patterns driven by cloud cover and solar variability, while power prices moderated across NP15 and SP15. One notable trend to keep an eye on is SoCal Gas storage, which experienced its steepest weekly withdrawal of the quarter—echoing patterns last seen during the 2022 cold stretch. These regional dynamics will play a key role as the market transitions into peak winter conditions.

Figure 3 | CAISO Auction Results

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