Mother Nature has delivered a slow start to the warming process this spring in the Northeastern US, which has kept weather conditions mild and kept demand and prices in check.  This pattern is reflected in the load profiles throughout the region, which are illustrated in the figure below, which plots average hourly load by ISO for each month from the present going back to January 2023.  The year-on-year differences are present throughout April and May but are most pronounced in New York and New England.  NYISO this May has averaged just 18.2 GW for the evening peak, down from 21.8 GW in May of last year.  In ISONE, the deficit is 2.5 GW for the evening peak with an average high of 14.3 GW compared to 16.8 GW one year ago.  Even further to the south and west in PJM and MISO evening load is down by 6-9% for the evening high (although the cooler temperatures have delivered slightly higher demand during the morning hours)—and that is even with the structural load growth that has taken place in PJM’s south region and MISO’s North region.

Figure 1 | Northeast 12x24 Average Hourly Load by ISO