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| Tuesday Jan 13, 2026 | |
| Mother Nature has been the dominant force shaping Western Canadian natural gas fundamentals since late November, as a series of prolonged cold snaps drove temperatures well below seasonal norms across Alberta and British Columbia. The extended cold regime materially lifted heating demand, pushing Alberta intra-provincial consumption higher while maintaining strong export flows toward British Columbia, the U.S. Midwest, and LNG-linked corridor. Despite ample regional supply, these weather-driven demand pulls created pockets of tightness, with LNG Canada operating against a backdrop of firm, cold-supported fundamentals rather than supply scarcity. That dynamic is now beginning to shift. Weather forecasts point to a clear inflection through the back half of January, with widespread ... » read more | |
| Monday Jan 12, 2026 | |
| Power and gas markets always throw something unexpected at us. Each season brings together a new set of challenges and market fundamentals. It is our job to turn those into opportunities. On the TV show “Project Runway” Tim Gunn popularized a succinct piece of advice contestants faced with adversity: “make it work”. This mantra holds true in power just as in fashion. Figure 1 | SoCal Pipeline Flows & Capacity (BCF/d) SoCal gas had a “make it work” moment back in December when heavy rains resulted in a pipeline break. Flows through the Wheeler Zone, pictured at bottom, suddenly dropped from over half a BCF/d to around a tenth of a BCF. Since then, they have increased flows on the North Desert Zone to compensate. Other pipelines into SoCal have ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 9, 2026 | |
| Batteries in CAISO are stumbling into the new year after December 2025 posted the lowest monthly SP15 DAM TB4 in over 10 years, coming in at just $1.72/kW-mn (i.e. an average price spread of $14.13/MWh). Figure 1 | Monthly Comparison of Value Streams ($/kW-mn), from our CAISO Monthly Battery Dashboard For context, the SP15 DAM TB4 has averaged $5.50/kW-mn during Q4 on average over the last 5 years. In early December, we wrote about the low RTM arbitrage opportunities in November 2025 which were causing batteries to simply sit out and not participate in energy or ancillary service markets (see CAISO Batteries Find Their Own Curtailments). By the end of the year, battery operators were looking back longingly towards those rosy November days when they could sometimes earn $3, maybe even ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 8, 2026 | |
| With 2025 in the books, it’s the time for a retrospective, to check in on how markets across the country finished off the year. Our latest Renewable Monthly, “December 2025 – That’s a Wrap” focuses on the renewable impacts during the final month of 2025. Below is portion taken from the report and adjusted slightly, touching on the big changes that came to the West during the past month. The biggest shift in West power markets was the arrival of strong precipitation, first to the Pacific Northwest and then south to California. In both regions, warm weather caused most precipitation to fall as rain, leading to an unusually strong start to the hydro season. The precipitation also led to a rapid increase in high elevation snowpack, especially sitting high up in ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 7, 2026 | |
| MISO is expecting a warm start to the new year as temperatures across the middle of the country have swung above normal for January. It’s in sharp contrast to the start of last year which had back-to-back cold months to begin 2025. This warmth continues for the rest of the week across MISO and into the next for some parts of the region, but the end of the month may be showing hints of a true start to winter. Figure 1 | Cumulative Midwest HDDs by Month The figure above shows cumulative heating degree days for the Midwest over the last several years in December, January, and February. Only the first 20 days of January are shown across the years to match how many datapoints are available with this year’s 15-day forecast. Starting in December, which sits at the top of the figure ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 6, 2026 | |
| Mother Nature is extending a stretch of unseasonably warm conditions across the SPP footprint, with above-normal temperatures expected to persist through most of the first half of January. This warmth is translating directly into muted demand, keeping system load well below typical winter norms. As shown in the top pane in figure 1, daily load peaks generally remain in the low-to-mid 30 GW range, with averages closer to the low 30s GW. The forecast suggests little deviation from this pattern in the near term, as the lack of sustained cold limits heating demand and caps any upside risk to load. In short, SPP enters January with a notably soft demand profile, setting the tone for relatively relaxed system conditions. At the same time, wind generation is poised to play an outsized role in ... » read more | |
| Monday Jan 5, 2026 | |
| Across North America, the renewable transitions carried on in 2025. Each region’s grid has had a shifting supply stack as plenty of new solar and wind generators plug into the grid. This makes for more day-to-day variability in operations as weather can quickly strengthen or weaken the overall capacity for renewable output. The following figures give a visual of renewable generation in a collection of regions, which helps us picture that day-to-day story. Figure 1 | CAISO Renewable Generation Stack (MW) The early winter has brought very animated weather to the Golden State. This includes unusually high precipitation in southern California, associated with increased cloud cover. This creates difficulties for solar projects, many of which typically enjoy year-round sun, as well as ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 2, 2026 | |
| In December, Mother Nature delivered plenty of gifts to the West coast’s rivers and dams. We saw two combined weather phenomena that shaped the current state of the hydro landscape. The first was a long-lasting atmospheric river. This first arrived in the Pacific northwest and then eventually shifted south to California. The second weather phenomenon was record-breaking cumulative warmth across much of the West. In combination, this gave us a striking rainfall event. In another year, much of this precipitation could have landed as snow, but this time we saw rain even at high elevations, especially near the pacific. This has set the scene for an interesting water year, with exceptionally strong early season generation and patchy snow accumulation, raising questions for next spring ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 31, 2025 | |
| East of the Rockies continues to spread cold temperatures across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast while the likes of Texas and the West are displaying modest temperatures for this time of year. The movement as of late pushed the prompt month (February 2026 contract) over the $4.00 level during bid-week while the January contract slid off the board roughly $0.40 higher. Up until last night, the market was trying to hold onto such levels knowing there was a cold air mass stuck in Central Canada that could push further south during any given model run. Figure 1 | Continental US Degree Day Forecast vs. Last Year/Normal The image above incorporates the latest 15-day model run where it represents the cumulative degree day (since it is winter we are talking mostly heating ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 30, 2025 | |
| The holiday spirit is in transition from gift giving to that of watching the ball drop when the clock strikes midnight on the east coast, symbolizing the calendar roll from the end of 2025 to the start of 2026. Over the past year, there has been a lot happening in the energy space and more lies ahead as Mother Nature is delivering the next round of colder temperatures to the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Figure 1 | Holiday Transition from One Year to Another In 2025, we saw policy changes occur under the new presidency with bills being passed early and often. Renewable technology continued to penetrate the supply stack capacity chain with solar technology being on the rise across California, Texas and parts of the Midwest. Battery technology followed as it is a natural fit ... » read more | |