MenuFeatured Articles
| Wednesday Jun 10, 2026 | |
| Summer arrived a few weeks early in the Midwest. A heat wave is moving across the middle of the country this week, bringing above-normal temperatures to MISO. The figure below shows the average Midwest temperature forecasts from the end of May to yesterday’s forecast on the far right which shows temperatures through June 23rd. Red and orange represent above normal temperatures while blue shows below normal temperatures with the darkest colors on the days expecting more extreme temperatures. The heat this week has been percolating since last month. By the beginning of June, the heat was expected to last for over a week and a half with the hottest days expecting average temperatures over 76 degrees F. In more recent forecasts, the end of the heat tapered off, but temperatures for this ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jun 9, 2026 | |
| SPP fundamentals are tightening as temperatures trend higher across the region, pushing peak load steadily upward through the second week of June. Forecast peak demand climbs from the low-40 GW range earlier this June to nearly 50 GW on June 9-10, with system load expected to reach 49.6 GW and 49.8 GW, respectively. Under normal circumstances, a demand increase of that magnitude would raise concerns about higher thermal generation requirements and stronger power prices. However, Mother Nature appears to be providing a timely offset, as wind generation is forecast to strengthen alongside the load increase rather than move against it. Wind output rises from roughly 11-16 GW during the first week of June to more than 24-26 GW during the June 9-11 period, with forecast peaks reaching 24.7 GW ... » read more | |
| Monday Jun 8, 2026 | |
| The grid operations differ across the country as market fundamentals point to current weather patterns and what makes up the supply stack. For several regions, Mother Nature is bringing some heat over the next week while the renewable landscape continues to impact the marginal megawatt as solar and wind swings are present heading into the second week of June 2026. Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Profile – Actual and Forecast Below is a summary of what has unfolded over the weekend across the country pertaining to natural gas and power markets. Weather The national weather picture is defined by a brief transition window. After the warmth that characterized the opening of June, a moderating trend pulls back the forecast starting around Day 5, holding through Day 12 — only for similar ... » read more | |
| Friday Jun 5, 2026 | |
| The late spring/early summer season in Texas can be a period of volatility when it comes to the weather. Often, the rainiest times of the year can occur in May or June. Rainfall has been occurring over various parts of the region yesterday and today, and more rain is in the forecast for the coming few days: Figure 1 | Weather Forecast for Texas Cities The rain and associated cloudy weather can have a meaningful impact on ERCOT's generation stack. Over the past few years, peak midday solar output has doubled or tripled (depending on which month you look at), and it's easy to find hours where solar is the largest single component of the supply stack. Figure 2 | ERCOT Average Hourly Supply Stack, 2026 YTD The figure above shows ERCOT's average supply stack, by hour, for 2026 so far. » read more | |
| Thursday Jun 4, 2026 | |
| A couple of weeks ago our blog post touched on the surging renewable curtailments that have been present within CAISO over the past month. Solar expansion has continued at a strong rate so far in 2026, the hourly profile pushing higher in May to reach a new high for the midday with potential generation during hour ending 13 averaging 22.6 GW and increase of over 2 GW year-over-year. The situation has been further exacerbated by surging solar in the Desert Southwest and an improved water year for Pacific Northwest hydro that is leaving plenty of supply available at the interties in the middle of the day and no demand externally for CAISO’s excess solar generation. The hope that storage would be able to mitigate the worst of the midday oversupply issues has dimmed, at least for the ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jun 3, 2026 | |
| In last Wednesday’s blog, we broke down some of the key factors in the perfect storm that resulted in AESO calling an energy emergency on Monday, May 25th. Those factors included low wind generation, high temperatures and demand, along with a high level of thermal outages. No more emergencies were called last week, but pool prices exceeded $980/MWh for several hours on Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Many of the same factors persisted during these periods. On Friday, wind generation returned to average over 2 GW. Despite a new record level of demand for May at 11.5 GW, pool prices averaged under $30/MWh for the day. On Sunday, wind generation rose while demand fell and pool prices spent the day at the price floor of $0/MWh. Figure 1 | AESO Market Summary (May 25 – 31 ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jun 2, 2026 | |
| Western Canadian natural gas markets are behaving differently this spring than what market participants have become accustomed to over the past years. Shoulder season is typically associated with ample supply, strong storage injections, and weaker cash pricing as production outpaces demand. This year, however, Alberta balances have carried a noticeably firmer tone. Lower Nova receipts resulting from NGTL maintenance activity have reduced available supply across the system, while export demand has remained relatively resilient. The result has been a more balanced market structure than is normally observed during the spring injection season. Figure 1 | Alberta Daily Demand and Supply Components The shift is evident across several key market fundamentals. Nova receipts have trended lower ... » read more | |
| Monday Jun 1, 2026 | |
| The natural gas world has seen its prompt month move up $0.40 since the Memorial Day weekend, which translates to a $3.33 value heading into June. There are many factors that play into the volatility in the forward commodity curves with the front tied mostly to market fundamentals and global news such as the Middle East conflict that has its current state tied to negotiations around a resolution. Figure 1 | Nymex Prompt Month Settle Price – Last 75 Days Part of the $0.40 move upward was the simple fact that the July contract was valued higher than the June contract that rolled off. This makes sense as for the former is part of Q3 while the latter is locked as the final month of Q2. Other factors that played a role in the uptick are tied to the weather forecast and what is ... » read more | |
| Friday May 29, 2026 | |
| The Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases a monthly report of capacity in a report titled “Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory” with data on operating, planned, and retired capacity by generator in the U.S. The latest release was on May 21st, 2026 covering reported capacity through April 2026. We use these data as an input into our long-term Production Cost Model (PCM), supplementing them with independent research to account for timing adjustments, project delays, cancellations, and other known data gaps. Along with our demand forecasts, this dataset helps assess whether regions are becoming long or short in energy and capacity. As a broader trend in the WECC, capacity additions have been hitting records in the last few years particularly in ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 28, 2026 | |
| The Pacific Northwest is currently enjoying some late May warmth that has been building throughout the region for the past several days. The high temperatures started up in Canada (the heat in Alberta contributing to the shortfalls in AESO were the topic of yesterday’s blog) and have moved south and west; Portland is expected to see highs top 80 degrees while over in northern Idaho and western Montana the thermometer should reach 90, and the heat hang around for another couple of days. This heat is being accompanied by something else that has been relatively scarce so far in May for the region—rain. The month to date has experienced dry conditions, shown by the left-hand image in the figure below, which is taken from the Northwest River Forecast Center and shows MTD ... » read more | |