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| Wednesday Feb 12, 2025 | |
| We have all been in a situation where someone has said, “just close your eyes and imagine……”. When you open them back up, life goes back to what it was but for a moment there was this imagery of peer bliss if you picture the sandy beaches on an island somewhere in the world or enjoying a trip to a popular destination of choice. In the energy space, it is hard to imagine a world without renewables as the penetration levels have turned into a transition period where many ISOs have reached into the Phase 2 bucket where curtailments are a common theme, especially during the midday block of hours as the sun shines and the solar generation comes in the form or rooftop and industrial-sized farms placed strategically across the country. Figure 1 | Close Your ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Feb 11, 2025 | |
| In our latest renewable monthly report, we discuss how January set the stage for 2025 in U.S. renewable energy markets, highlighting key trends in generation, demand, and pricing. CAISO saw relatively mild weather conditions, allowing solar generation to surge. However, this expansion also brought challenges such as curtailments and pricing impacts. Wind generation remained consistent, while battery storage played a vital role in energy dispatch despite some disruptions. Figure 1. CAISO Average Hourly Wind and Solar Generation (MW) In ERCOT, cold weather events influenced demand, leading to notable shifts in energy consumption. Wind and solar continued their upward trajectory, reinforcing their growing role in the region’s energy mix. Battery storage also showed increased ... » read more | |
| Monday Feb 10, 2025 | |
| Here in Portland’s winters, when we have suffered through months of rain, cold, and short days, people start dreaming of more southerly latitudes. We start researching vacations to Mexico’s jungles, Arizona’s deserts, or California’s beaches. It would seem our power sector is doing just about the same, as many of the MWs we are using to stave away the cold are arriving from our warmer neighbor. Although, with resulting spikes in energy prices, participants in PNW power markets likely have more headaches than dreams due to the Golden State. Figure 1 | PNW Temperature Forecast and Difference From Normal It is easy to describe the Pacific Northwest winters, at least along the I-5 corridor, in just three words: 50's and rainy. That description, however, does not ... » read more | |
| Friday Feb 7, 2025 | |
| Forest Park is one of the crown jewels of Portland. It is one of the country’s largest urban forest reserves. It covers about 5,200 acres on a hill that starts just above downtown Portland and goes many miles to the north. The iconic Rose Garden sits on the southern end, just up the hill from downtown. The northern end of Forest Park sits above an industrial area that runs along the Willamette River. Just a few hundred feet from the northern portion of the park sits Portland’s garbage processing facility as well as many acres of oil tanks. There are also two major electricity transmission right of ways which cut directly through the park. There is substantial energy infrastructure at the bottom of the northern part of the park. And there are large load centers sitting in ... » read more | |
| Thursday Feb 6, 2025 | |
| Renewables are off to a strong start in 2025 after rapid growth during the previous year in markets across the country from CAISO in the West to ERCOT in the South Central and over to MISO and PJM in the Midwest/Northeast. Renewables have been showing out to start off the new year, and our latest Monthly report (part of our eCommerce Platinum package) goes into the impact of renewables so far in 2025. The massive growth in solar coupled with strong wind kept lower 48 net load numbers low compared to January of 2024 despite the strongest monthly total HDDs of the past 10+ years, with ERCOT as a perfect example of how the growth has played out. Figure 1 | ERCOT 12x24 Profiles The figure above plots average hourly load, renewable generation, and net load by month from 2023 through the ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Feb 5, 2025 | |
| With Portland’s first potential snowfall this week, it’s hard to imagine that shoulder season is just around the corner. In Texas, however, it might seem much more reasonable as highs of 80 degrees rule the temperature forecasts this week. For nuclear plants across the country, preparation for outage season is already in full swing. The first few nuclear plants have started to power down with generation slowly dropping from 100% online. Throughout the spring, they will spend up to a month or more completely offline to perform necessary maintenance as part of their refueling cycles. The first is scheduled to begin as soon as next week. Here at EnergyGPS, we monitor nuclear outages in several dashboards, including our NRC Nuclear Plant Summary dashboard. The figure below is ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Feb 4, 2025 | |
| The Palisades and Eaton fires in Southern California are now fully contained, but the aftermath presents significant challenges. Cleanup efforts are underway, with hazardous materials and toxic waste posing risks, particularly due to the presence of lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles, which could reignite and cause explosions. Meanwhile, displaced families are struggling to find shelter, adding another layer of complexity to the recovery. These challenges highlight the broader implications of energy transitions and disaster management, making it crucial to assess how infrastructure and policies can adapt to such crises. Figure 1 | Next Phase – California Fires and Weather As the recovery continues, California’s weather patterns are shifting, bringing an ... » read more | |
| Monday Feb 3, 2025 | |
| Recent developments have brought the energy industry into the spotlight, with the possibility for the new executive branch to put a heavy finger on the scales of market movements via 10% tariffs to take effect on February 4th. The potential impacts are broad, but we have our eyes glued to natural gas markets. Figure 1 | 7 Day Moving Average of Natural Gas Imports from Canada to the US The above figure gives a year over year of America’s natural gas imports from the Great White North over the course of the year. The current winter season has seen impressive demand for Canadian gas, with this year regularly exceeding the previous two. Since the end of the East’s artic blast demand has cooled and will likely fall further as we move towards spring. Still, even in the depth of the ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 31, 2025 | |
| Here in Portland, Oregon, we are experiencing the typical PNW transition from winter to spring—that is, cold and wet. Unlike last year, the precipitation that has been falling lately has been more rain than snow, and temperatures are mostly staying above freezing. Figure 1 | Weather Forecast for Portland, OR Meanwhile, though, other regions are getting a much warmer entry into the second month of the year. The figure below shows the temperature forecast for ERCOT for the upcoming week; the darker the red coloration, the further above normal the temperatures are for this time of year. Figure 2 | Temperature Forecast for ERCOT from Atmospheric G-2, 1/30 – 2/7 It’s not just ERCOT that is expecting a stretch of warmer-than-normal weather, but the entire South Central ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 30, 2025 | |
| Last week we finally saw the seasonal water supply forecast halt its weeks-long plunge downward from where it began the month at 95 MAF (91% of normal) all the way to 82.4 MAF (79% of normal) late last week. This mirrored a similar drop last year that took place a bit earlier in the 2024 water year in November and December and brought the MAF within 3 percentage points of the final Jan-Jul unregulated water volume in both the 2023 and 2024 water years, adjusting expectations for flows, generation and dam operations for the remainder of the winter and upcoming spring. The first two days of this week have further turned things on their head, as the forecast started to rise, increasing to 85.6 MAF (82% of normal) in yesterday afternoon’s release. This change has come ... » read more | |