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| Wednesday May 14, 2025 | |
| The road for LNG exports has been a bit rocky over the first couple of weeks in May. After reaching the highest level of exports back in April with over 16 BCF exported each day, there has been a steep fall this month with exports only just starting to return to previous levels. The figure below is displayed in Energy GPS’s Daily LNG Dashboard and shows a rolling average of total US LNG exports. Values are shown as negatives so the lower line for 2025 (blue) demonstrates increased volumes of LNG leaving the country. While the beginning of this gas year tracked with levels from last gas year, levels dropped sharply at the end of January. By February, LNG exports started to pull away from previous years’ levels and reached new highs with the start of operations at the brand-new ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 13, 2025 | |
| A recent heatwave across California and the Desert Southwest pushed electricity demand to new spring highs in CAISO, topping 32 GW and surpassing day-ahead forecasts. In our latest article, we explore the impact of high demand in the current market conditions, particularly the role played by the battery fleet on the grid. The surge in temperatures, especially in the LA Basin, caused a sharp rise in power consumption, most notably in the SCE balancing region. This demand strength was present through the midday hours, significantly reducing renewable energy curtailments, which are typically seen during sunny hours. With positive pricing sustained through midday, questions arise about how this affected the battery storage fleet’s daily charging and discharging patterns. Figure 1 | ... » read more | |
| Monday May 12, 2025 | |
| Recent weather has begun to put pressure on power markets, with warm days pushing up cooling demand. And the near-term forecast calls for more heat. These Spring heat waves do not present the same risks as summer and will never break demand records. Instead, we can think of them as Mother Nature testing the grid. When these tests occur, net load is one key statistic to watch. Calculated by subtracting renewable generation from total load, this tells us roughly how deep into the thermal stack the grid will need to go to satisfy demand, which corelates closely with price. Figure 1 | ERCOT Load, Net Load, Renewable Generation & Heat Rate Our first figure features a net load chart available in the ERCOT Daily Dashboard. Blue and yellow show solar and wind generation respectively, red ... » read more | |
| Friday May 9, 2025 | |
| I’ve known Andrew Kasius for a few years now, but it was news to me that he could swim. His blog last week reminded me of my early days in the Energy Industry. Every August in Sandpoint, where I (Steve Edburg) live, we have the Long Bridge Swim. It’s a 1.76 mile swim alongside the Long Bridge on Lake Pend Oreille. My first job in the Energy Industry was at EPIS, the makers of the Production Cost Model (PCM) Aurora. EPIS had a couple of diehard swimmers who trained and did the Long Bridge swim every year. Heck, even at the annual company retreats, employees could earn an extra PTO day by completing a 500-yard swim! I joined in on the Long Bridge fun once and it was, well… long! Much like the Long Bridge swim, my work at ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 8, 2025 | |
| With the robust growth in solar capacity in markets with traditionally low market penetration, we are starting to see more and more volatility introduced to the daily balancing equation on the supply side from renewables in ISOs such as MISO and PJM. Those who work in ERCOT or CAISO will be very familiar with the swings that can occur from day to day in such markets, but it is relatively new elsewhere. This dynamic was front and center in PJM this past month, after a stretch of cool and overcast weather early in April gave way to sunnier, warmer conditions in the second half of the month. The changes to solar this spring in PJM and its impact on PJM as a whole was the topic of our latest Special Report, “PJM’s Solar (Spring)board”. Figure 1 | PJM Daily ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 7, 2025 | |
| On Monday night, Alberta pool price shot to $825/MWh as wind dropped low in the late evening hours. High demand was not a factor, as peak demand on Monday night stayed under 10 GW. The province has been enjoying mild and warmer-than-normal temperatures so far this May. High thermal outages, however, did factor in. On Monday, more than 3.6 GW of gas plants were offline. In the middle of the day, solar demand reached 1.7 GW. Wind generation started out the morning providing 3 GW and then dropped to 1 GW by midday. By HE 20, wind generation dropped under 0.1 GW. Net load, calculated as demand minus solar and wind, peaked at 9.4 GW. With a good portion of the thermal stack offline, Alberta had no choice but to send a price signal that attracted as many megawatts as possible. Figure 1 | AESO ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 6, 2025 | |
| As summer approaches, one of the key priorities in the natural gas market is to inject sufficient volumes into storage ahead of the following winter season. However, current market fundamentals reveal notable uncertainties, sparking a wide range of discussions across the power sector across the Lower 48. These include tariffs, rising structural power demand driven by data centers, the renewable growth, and the evolution of LNG demand—which has stabilized between 15-15.5 Bcf/d and continues to grow across parts of Canada. All of this underscores the need to carefully monitor supply, demand, and regional dynamics to better understand where the market is headed. Figure 1 | Lower 48 Power Burns, 2023–Present A major recent topic has been power burns, which have remained lower ... » read more | |
| Monday May 5, 2025 | |
| Spring outage season is always a time when planned maintenance is needed as units push through the winter months and look to be prepared for the higher power demand months known as summer. The transition period between April and June exposes the grid in a way if/when Mother Nature wants to deliver some heat that pushes the peak power demand higher, which will be in play this upcoming week in California and the Pacific Northwest Figure 1 | CAISO Peak Power Demand Actuals and Forecast Sticking to the Golden State, the grid is looking at rising peak demand numbers (blue bars in Figure 1) with Southern California leading the charge later in the week while the northern part of the state is holding steady for the most part. The grid has its solar influx and battery capacity to keep ... » read more | |
| Friday May 2, 2025 | |
| Not trying to brag, but I (Andrew Kasius) can swim. Freestyle, breaststroke, backstroke, doggie paddle, side stroke, dead man’s float: all good. But the butterfly? I can do it, but it isn’t pretty. After 30 seconds of causing massive waves that overflow pools, annoy other swimmers, erode shorelines and I’m beginning to breathe water, I’m done. I go above the water, I gasp for air, I go below the water, I think about my life choices… and then repeat. I had a high school friend who, as inelegant as he was on land, was amazing in the water doing this stroke. When done well, it looks great as shown in Figure 1 below, but for me it is pretty much the most unrelaxing way to move through water that doesn’t include getting ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 1, 2025 | |
| With April now squarely in the rear-view mirror, the shift is already underway for the PNW hydro system. The arrival of May now largely puts flood-risk management (FRM) behind us as the focus transitions from clearing up enough storage space behind the system’s dams now that April 30 targets have been reached to catching the new water as it melts and flows down into the river system. Earlier this week on Tuesday the Army Corps of Engineers posted updated FRM guidance that finalized the dates to begin refill operations at each storage project. There has been some movement back and forth over the past week particularly for Grand Coulee. At this time last week the plan was to draft the project down only as far as required to reach the April 30 elevation target ... » read more | |